Economic Growth - In July, the economic growth rate is estimated to be 5.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value[1] - Consumption showed a slight marginal slowdown, while investment continued to decline, increasing the drag on economic growth[1] - Real estate investment is nearing its bottom, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[1] Consumer Behavior - The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales in July was 3.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value and lower than the expected 4.87%[11] - Consumer budget constraints remain cautious, with the marginal propensity to consume at 65.52%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points from the previous year[16] - Upgrading consumption remains stable, with jewelry and cosmetics showing year-on-year growth rates of 8.2% and 4.5%, respectively[19] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth rate for January to July was 1.6%, below the expected 2.68% and down 1.2 percentage points from the previous value[21] - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 12%, indicating ongoing pressure in the housing market[22] - Infrastructure investment growth rates were 3.2% for narrow definitions and 7.29% for broad definitions, both showing declines from previous values[21] Policy Implications - Incremental consumption policies are expected to boost retail sales growth by approximately 0.62%[28] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to improve price levels, with a focus on achieving a balance between quantity and price to enhance industrial profits[30] - Risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts and the possibility that policy effects may not meet expectations[31]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a marginal decline in manufacturing sentiment[9] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a return to contraction territory[12] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, but still within the expansion range[15] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand have weakened, with the supply-demand gap widening in July[9] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a decline in external demand[12] - The marginal consumption propensity of residents is at 65.52%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points year-on-year, indicating cautious consumer spending[13] Group 3: Policy Impact and Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to marginally improve PPI growth, supporting corporate profit expectations[2] - The BCI profit forecast index for July is at 44.26, an increase of 0.48 points, indicating improved profit expectations[18] - If inflation recovery is sustainable in Q3, the capital market may stabilize and trend positively in August[26] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential escalation of global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts[27] - The impact of extreme weather on construction and service sectors has been significant, leading to a slowdown in expansion momentum[21][22]