金融专场-2025 研究框架线上培训 摘要 寿险产品不仅是保险合同，更是价值观念的传递，需不断扩展业务范围 以满足客户多样化需求。寿险公司通过并购扩大市场份额、获取客户资 源并提升产品多样性，优化资产负债表，提高资本回报率，实现规模经 济效应。 寿险与财险在承保标的和风险管理上存在显著区别。财险承保物体，风 险评估相对简单；寿险承保人的生命，涉及复杂的人口统计和精算模型， 存在利率风险。寿险销售更侧重于价值观念的传递，而非简单的产品定 价。 保险公司定价逻辑基于成本加成法，包括死亡赔付、运营费用和时间成 本。精算师通过分析历史数据预测未来现金流，并根据预定利率贴现计 算保单现值，死差、费差和利差是定价的关键因素。 中国保险行业经历了三波发展：2013 年重疾险驱动，2015 年代理人考 试取消推动，2020 年后惠民保冲击。惠民保以低成本满足大众需求， 对传统重疾险市场造成冲击，新业务价值断崖式下降。 Q&A 保险公司的定价逻辑主要基于成本加成法。具体来说，一张保单包括三项主要 成本：死亡赔付、运营费用和时间成本（即投资收益率）。在此基础上，公司 会对死亡率、费用和利率进行加成，从而确定最终价格。这就是所谓的 ...

资产配置 | 动态跟踪 大类资产风险可控，短期关注交易特征 ——"2+1"思维在大类资产中的应用初探 股债跷跷板的成因、影响和策略应对 2025-09-17 基于风险因子择时的动态全天候思路 2025-08-18 全天候策略需要择时吗：——风险均衡策 略新思路 2025-07-09 风险提示 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 021-63326320 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 29 日 | 王晶 | 执业证书编号：S0860510120030 | | --- | --- | | | wangjing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63325888*6072 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | ⚫ 证券研究"2+1"思维在大类资产投资过程中同样有效。"2+1"思维也即预期思 维、交易思维与边际思维。在资产配置中，我们通常以战略配置定中期仓位中枢， 以战术配置做短期仓位调整 ...

Group 1 - The A500 index (000510) increased by 0.38%, with notable gains from companies such as Giant Network (002558) up 9.99% and Aerospace Electronics (600879) also up 9.99% [1] - The A500 ETF fund (512050) rose by 0.40%, with the latest price reported at 1.01 yuan [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July fell short of expectations, which may lead to an earlier interest rate cut [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongyin Securities, the impact of U.S. tariff policies is gradually diminishing, and market risk appetite is recovering [2] - The A500 index is designed to reflect the overall performance of the most representative listed companies across various industries, selecting 500 securities with larger market capitalization and better liquidity [2] - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index accounted for 19.83% of the index, including companies like Kweichow Moutai (600519) and CATL (300750) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that bank stocks are experiencing a collective rise, driven by changes in the DDM model, with a shift from fundamental expectations to factors such as declining risk-free rates and improved risk assessments in the banking sector [1][2] - As of August 4, 2025, the China Securities Bank Index (399986) rose by 0.91%, with notable increases in stocks such as Qingdao Bank (up 3.74%) and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (up 2.21%) [1] - The recent performance of bank stocks is attributed to strong economic resilience and policies aimed at reducing internal competition, which are expected to boost inflation and nominal growth, thereby affecting interest rate expectations [2] Group 2 - The recent upward trend in bank stocks is characterized as a "slow bull market," with a low volatility range around the 3600 level, differing from previous market behaviors [2] - The upcoming mid-year report season is expected to validate the anticipated recovery in the banking sector's fundamentals for Q2, driven by improved liability costs and recovering trading book losses [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Bank Index account for 64.84% of the index, with major players including China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a marginal decline in manufacturing sentiment[9] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a return to contraction territory[12] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, but still within the expansion range[15] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand have weakened, with the supply-demand gap widening in July[9] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a decline in external demand[12] - The marginal consumption propensity of residents is at 65.52%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points year-on-year, indicating cautious consumer spending[13] Group 3: Policy Impact and Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to marginally improve PPI growth, supporting corporate profit expectations[2] - The BCI profit forecast index for July is at 44.26, an increase of 0.48 points, indicating improved profit expectations[18] - If inflation recovery is sustainable in Q3, the capital market may stabilize and trend positively in August[26] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential escalation of global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts[27] - The impact of extreme weather on construction and service sectors has been significant, leading to a slowdown in expansion momentum[21][22]

Group 1 - The current PB-ROE curve has flattened compared to previous periods, indicating a shift in valuation drivers from fundamental factors to dividend logic [1] - The evolution of the curve suggests that bank stock valuations are still based on dividends, with institutional fund preferences and timing differences driving rotation within the banking sector [1] - The implied necessary return rate calculated using the DDM model is approximately 5.2%, with a spread of about 3.5% over the risk-free rate, indicating potential for PB valuation enhancement if the spread narrows [1] Group 2 - Insurance capital continues to allocate to bank stocks, with room for increased investment in FVOCI stock and long equity trials [1] - The ongoing rise in bank stocks is driven by capital market dynamics, with a focus on the reasons and potential for insurance capital to increase bank stock allocations [2] - The five factors driving insurance capital to increase allocation to high-dividend assets include the need for higher yields amid declining asset returns and optimized capital pressure management [2] Group 3 - Marginal changes in liabilities, products, and assets may lead to reduced allocation of insurance capital to bank stocks [3] - On the liability side, a decrease in preset rates may enhance the attractiveness of fixed-income assets, potentially diverting funds from high-dividend allocations [3] - If bank performance pressures continue, particularly if earnings decline further by Q2 2025, it may lead to a stock price correction and temporary pressure on insurers' solvency [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates a shift in the banking sector's focus from fundamental expectations and growth thinking to strategy and trading thinking, highlighting the evolving landscape of investment approaches in the industry [2][29]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - Three significant regulatory actions have guided the banking industry from "wild growth" to orderly expansion: 1. In 2011, the tightening of city commercial banks' cross-regional expansion and the central bank's credit scale control ended the disorderly expansion of the banking sector [16][20]. 2. The introduction of the MPA assessment in 2016 served as a core regulatory framework, preventing small and medium-sized banks from circumventing regulations and promoting stability [21][23]. 3. The implementation of asset management regulations in 2018 significantly constrained the expansion of non-standard assets in banks, addressing risks associated with shadow banking [24][28]. Group 2: Valuation Framework - A new understanding of the valuation framework for banks is presented, emphasizing the "PB-ROE" model, where banks with higher ROE typically correspond to higher PB ratios. The introduction of dividend yield and payout ratio into this framework suggests that banks with an ROE above 11.7% could justify a PB valuation above 1 [32][33]. - The report notes a shift in the driving logic behind bank stock price increases from growth logic to dividend strategies, indicating a transition in market focus from numerator-driven factors (like ROE) to denominator-driven factors (like dividend yield) [32][33]. Group 3: Historical Performance Review - A comprehensive review of bank stocks from 2008 to 2022 reveals that the banking sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index, achieving nine rounds of excess returns lasting over three months. The core driving factors shifted from growth to dividends over this period [8][29]. - Specific periods of excess returns are highlighted, such as: 1. From November 2008 to July 2009, the sector achieved an absolute return of 139.8% and an excess return of 15.3% [19]. 2. In 2011, despite negative absolute returns, the sector still managed an excess return of 17.6% [19]. 3. The period from October 2014 to December 2014 saw an absolute return of 60% and an excess return of 14.9% [19]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests two main investment themes: 1. Anticipating a reduction in insurance preset interest rates in Q3 2025, it recommends focusing on high-dividend banks such as China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [3]. 2. The strong performance of small and medium-sized banks since the beginning of the year is expected to continue, with recommendations for banks like Industrial Bank, CITIC Bank, and Nanjing Bank based on valuation, dividends, and fundamentals [3].

Group 1 - The National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) is experiencing a tight market with a latest quote of 106.23 yuan as of July 11, 2025, and has accumulated a 1.86% increase over the past year as of July 10, 2025 [1] - The ETF has a trading volume of 10.46 million yuan with a turnover rate of 1.19% on the day, and an average daily trading volume of 534 million yuan over the past year [1] - The ETF has seen a net value increase of 4.59% over the past two years, with a historical monthly profit probability of 88.23% and a 100% profit probability for holding over two years [1] Group 2 - The ETF closely tracks the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index, which includes policy bank bonds with a maturity of up to three years [2] - Current market conditions indicate a shift in the relationship between stocks and bonds, with speculation that the demand for 10-year government bonds may lead to a repricing, potentially widening the spread between government bonds and certificates of deposit by an estimated 5-10 basis points [3] - The bond market is showing signs of weakness, which may affect credit bonds, while the 2-5 year National Development Bank bonds may become more attractive as a safe haven for funds [3]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery trend in manufacturing sentiment[8] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI is at 50.2%, rising 0.4 percentage points, signaling a return to expansion[9] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is at 51%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, reflecting ongoing recovery in production[12] Employment and Market Sentiment - The employment index within the manufacturing PMI is at 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating a contraction in employment sentiment[14] - Small enterprises show a PMI index of 47.3%, down 2 percentage points, highlighting challenges in the employment market[13] - The overall employment market sentiment is showing signs of slowing down, with expectations for income and employment potentially weakening[26] Inflation and Pricing Trends - The PPI year-on-year growth rate is estimated to be around -3.4% for June, indicating a continued decline in producer prices[18] - The gap between new orders and production PMI narrowed slightly to -0.8%, suggesting a minor improvement in supply-demand balance[18] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion, with construction sector PMI at 52.8%, reflecting strong growth driven by fiscal policies[20] - The service sector PMI is at 50.2%, showing a slight decline, likely due to seasonal factors following holiday periods[24] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in market risk appetite, supported by easing concerns over U.S. tariff policies and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September[27] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is assessed to be higher than in July, with current market expectations indicating a 76% chance of a 25 basis point cut[28]

Group 1: Company Performance - The company reported Q1 retail sales growth in its mainland shopping centers, with Shanghai Xinya Taikoo Hui, Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li, and Shanghai Qiantan Taikoo Li showing increases of 10.1%, 6%, and 1.5% year-on-year respectively [1] - Retail sales in Chengdu Taikoo Li, Guangzhou Taikoo Hui, and Beijing Yintai Center declined by 2.9%, 2.5%, and 0.4% year-on-year, but the decline was significantly narrower compared to 2024 [1] - The improvement in retail sales is attributed to the introduction of more luxury brands following renovations completed at the beginning of 2025, particularly benefiting Shanghai Xinya Taikoo Hui [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Hong Kong shopping centers maintained full occupancy with a slight improvement in retail sales growth, with Taikoo City Centre, Taikoo Place, and Citygate Outlets showing year-on-year growth rates of +2.9%, -5%, and -5.8% respectively [2] - The overall rental rate for Hong Kong office buildings remained under pressure due to market oversupply, with a Q1 occupancy rate of 89%, consistent with the end of 2024 [2] - In mainland office projects, Guangzhou Taikoo Hui and Beijing Yintai Center saw occupancy rates increase by 1 percentage point to 91% and 84% respectively, while Shanghai Xinya Taikoo Hui's rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 94% [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company is characterized as a commercial real estate firm that generates stable cash flow through holding assets with a competitive edge [3] - Q1 performance in mainland shopping centers aligns with expectations, driven by the company's strong leasing and renovation capabilities [3] - Projected net profit growth for the company is 449%, 54%, and 37% for the years 2025 to 2027, with a consistent annual dividend growth of 5% [3]