临近中报季，银行股业绩快报持续验证银行业二季度基本面环比回升的预期。主要驱动：第一、由于银 行高息定期存款进入重定价周期，银行负债成本改善明显导致银行业息差水平压力边际缓解；第二、银 行交易账簿的25Q1的浮亏在二季度明显收复；第三、随着对公风险的缓和，零售风险经历了23Q4以来 的上行后不良生成率逐渐缓和，银行整体资产质量平稳。 银行ETF指数紧密跟踪中证银行指数，为反映中证全指指数样本中不同行业公司证券的整体表现，为投 资者提供分析工具，将中证全指指数样本按中证行业分类分为11个一级行业、35个二级行业、90余个三 级行业及200余个四级行业，再以进入各一、二、三、四级行业的全部证券作为样本编制指数，形成中 证全指行业指数。 数据显示，截至2025年7月31日，中证银行指数(399986)前十大权重股分别为招商银行(600036)、兴业银 行(601166)、工商银行(601398)、交通银行(601328)、农业银行(601288)、江苏银行(600919)、浦发银行 (600000)、民生银行(600016)、平安银行(000001)、上海银行(601229)，前十大权重股合计占比64.84%。 前期 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a marginal decline in manufacturing sentiment[9] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a return to contraction territory[12] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, but still within the expansion range[15] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand have weakened, with the supply-demand gap widening in July[9] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a decline in external demand[12] - The marginal consumption propensity of residents is at 65.52%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points year-on-year, indicating cautious consumer spending[13] Group 3: Policy Impact and Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to marginally improve PPI growth, supporting corporate profit expectations[2] - The BCI profit forecast index for July is at 44.26, an increase of 0.48 points, indicating improved profit expectations[18] - If inflation recovery is sustainable in Q3, the capital market may stabilize and trend positively in August[26] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential escalation of global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts[27] - The impact of extreme weather on construction and service sectors has been significant, leading to a slowdown in expansion momentum[21][22]

Group 1 - The current PB-ROE curve has flattened compared to previous periods, indicating a shift in valuation drivers from fundamental factors to dividend logic [1] - The evolution of the curve suggests that bank stock valuations are still based on dividends, with institutional fund preferences and timing differences driving rotation within the banking sector [1] - The implied necessary return rate calculated using the DDM model is approximately 5.2%, with a spread of about 3.5% over the risk-free rate, indicating potential for PB valuation enhancement if the spread narrows [1] Group 2 - Insurance capital continues to allocate to bank stocks, with room for increased investment in FVOCI stock and long equity trials [1] - The ongoing rise in bank stocks is driven by capital market dynamics, with a focus on the reasons and potential for insurance capital to increase bank stock allocations [2] - The five factors driving insurance capital to increase allocation to high-dividend assets include the need for higher yields amid declining asset returns and optimized capital pressure management [2] Group 3 - Marginal changes in liabilities, products, and assets may lead to reduced allocation of insurance capital to bank stocks [3] - On the liability side, a decrease in preset rates may enhance the attractiveness of fixed-income assets, potentially diverting funds from high-dividend allocations [3] - If bank performance pressures continue, particularly if earnings decline further by Q2 2025, it may lead to a stock price correction and temporary pressure on insurers' solvency [3]

核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 外部环境不确定性增加，宽货币有望延续，全社会预期回报率中长期仍趋于下行， 低波红利策略有效性料延续。公募改革导致的银行配置偏离风格回归的预期，有望 助力银行跑出超额收益。保险预定利率或于 25Q3 再度下调，险资股息率容忍度有 望进一步抬升，呵护银行绝对收益。预计银行业基本面 25Q2 环比 25Q1 边际将有 所改善，主要是其他非息收入增长压力的缓解。现阶段关注两条投资主线：1、为 三季度保险预定利率下调提前布局高股息类银行，建议关注：建设银行(601939， 未评级)、工商银行(601398，未评级)、渝农商行(601077，买入)； 2、中小银行年 初以来表现强势，后续我们依然看好，考虑到目前行业估值、股息、基本面等多重 因素，建议关注：兴业银行(601166，未评级)、中信银行(601998，未评级)、南京 银行(601009，买入)、江苏银行(600919，买入)、杭州银行(600926，买入)。 风险提示 货币政策超预期收紧；财政政策低于预期；测算相关风险。 | | 看好（维持） | | --- | --- | | | 中国 | | | 银行行业 | | | 20 ...

Group 1 - The National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) is experiencing a tight market with a latest quote of 106.23 yuan as of July 11, 2025, and has accumulated a 1.86% increase over the past year as of July 10, 2025 [1] - The ETF has a trading volume of 10.46 million yuan with a turnover rate of 1.19% on the day, and an average daily trading volume of 534 million yuan over the past year [1] - The ETF has seen a net value increase of 4.59% over the past two years, with a historical monthly profit probability of 88.23% and a 100% profit probability for holding over two years [1] Group 2 - The ETF closely tracks the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index, which includes policy bank bonds with a maturity of up to three years [2] - Current market conditions indicate a shift in the relationship between stocks and bonds, with speculation that the demand for 10-year government bonds may lead to a repricing, potentially widening the spread between government bonds and certificates of deposit by an estimated 5-10 basis points [3] - The bond market is showing signs of weakness, which may affect credit bonds, while the 2-5 year National Development Bank bonds may become more attractive as a safe haven for funds [3]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery trend in manufacturing sentiment[8] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI is at 50.2%, rising 0.4 percentage points, signaling a return to expansion[9] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is at 51%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, reflecting ongoing recovery in production[12] Employment and Market Sentiment - The employment index within the manufacturing PMI is at 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating a contraction in employment sentiment[14] - Small enterprises show a PMI index of 47.3%, down 2 percentage points, highlighting challenges in the employment market[13] - The overall employment market sentiment is showing signs of slowing down, with expectations for income and employment potentially weakening[26] Inflation and Pricing Trends - The PPI year-on-year growth rate is estimated to be around -3.4% for June, indicating a continued decline in producer prices[18] - The gap between new orders and production PMI narrowed slightly to -0.8%, suggesting a minor improvement in supply-demand balance[18] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion, with construction sector PMI at 52.8%, reflecting strong growth driven by fiscal policies[20] - The service sector PMI is at 50.2%, showing a slight decline, likely due to seasonal factors following holiday periods[24] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in market risk appetite, supported by easing concerns over U.S. tariff policies and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September[27] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is assessed to be higher than in July, with current market expectations indicating a 76% chance of a 25 basis point cut[28]

在选择投资标的时，我们往往对长期ROE和增速的预期比较保守，很多被市场"周期性抛弃"的优质企业由 于估值足够低，只需要长期合理的ROE和很低的增速就能满足我们内部收益率的要求。从这个角度来看， 红利投资中我们对企业长期盈利能力保守的预期提高了判断正确的条件概率。 今年以来，红利型股票表现平淡，科技相关行业在AI浪潮下涨势诱人，当红利投资的逆风期来临，我们 该如何应对？今天从DDM模型的角度和大家分享一下我的想法。 乍一看，投资科技股与红利股似乎是"求上限"和"保下限"的风险偏好之别，但事实上最终投资收益率=胜 率*赔率。长期而言，在科技浪潮中寻找"n倍股"并不一定比在传统行业中以分红累积复利强。 寻找"n倍股"更像是创业，赔率高，一旦成功回报极大，然而幸存者偏差往往使人忽视创业的低胜率，真 正能登上山顶的只是极少数命运的幸运儿。相较之下，以分红累积复利获益更像在重视经验积累的行业打 工（比如医生），赔率不高胜率高，很难一夜暴富，但较大概率都能有持续收入，而且随着时间推移复利 效应会放大收益。 成长股和红利股投资的根本差异是对企业盈余再投资的分配。 从DDM模型我们可以推导得出，影响投资 收益率的关键变量是企业 ...