发布时间：2025-12-11 证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《全球流动性处于何种水平？---数量 篇》 - 2025.12.8 宏观研究 目录 鲜菜鲜果涨价支撑食品改善，服务价格相对稳固 核心观点 CPI 同比增速连续三个月呈现修复态势，虽然存在基数走低的影 响，但剔除基数效应，从两年复合增速来看，CPI 同比增速仍呈现边 际改善。（1）从结构来看，食品项价格边际改善明显，成为当月 CPI 价格改善的主要原因，其中，鲜菜和鲜果是主要贡献，两个分项对当 月食品项价格同比增速改善贡献度达到 54.29%，背后是低温阴雨+冷 冻灾害影响，短期供应不足，推升价格上涨，与此同时，因牛羊存栏 量下滑，出栏供给偏紧，2025 年下半年供给进入收缩通道，牛羊肉价 格同比增速保持稳定上涨；（2）从非食品分项价格来看，服务消费价 格保持相对坚挺，如教育文化和娱乐、医疗保健、家庭服务、 ...

曹恩惠/文 一、案例背景 绿色低碳已成为全球产业竞争的新赛道，推动电子制造产业绿色化、低碳化、智能化发展，不仅是减排 的必然选择，更是培育新质生产力、增强国际竞争力的战略举措。 电子信息制造业是国民经济的战略性、基础性、先导性产业，规模总量大、产业链条长、涉及领域广， 是稳定工业经济增长、维护国家政治经济安全的重要领域。而电子产业作为全球碳排放增长最快的领域 之一，年碳排放量已突破1.2亿吨。在"双碳"目标指引下，其绿色转型不仅是应对气候变化的必然选 择，更是重塑全球产业链竞争力的战略机遇。 中国电子制造业虽具规模优势，但亟待通过转型驱动增长，重构产业竞争力。为此，国家正探索将数字 化转型与开展大规模设备更新行动、实施技术改造升级工程等有机结合，走出一条以数字化转型助力节 能减排，以绿色能源电子制造产品的发展道路，鼓励建设一批绿色智能工厂、极致能效工厂、零碳工 厂。 根据工业和信息化部等七部门2024年发布的《关于加快推动制造业绿色化发展的指导意见》，要推动数 字化和绿色化深度融合。发挥数字技术在提高资源效率、环境效益、管理效能等方面的赋能作用，加速 生产方式数字化绿色化协同转型。面向重点行业领域在生产制造全 ...

工业和信息化部数据显示：前10月，我国规模以上电子信息制造业增加值同比增长10.6%，增速分别比 同期工业、高技术制造业高4.5个和1.3个百分点。主要产品中，智能手机产量10.2亿台，同比增长 0.7%；集成电路产量3866亿块，同比增长10.2%。 1—10月，规模以上电子信息制造业实现营业收入14万亿元，同比增长8.3%；实现利润总额5700亿元， 同比增长12.8%。10月份，规模以上电子信息制造业营业收入1.53万亿元，同比增长3.9%。 （文章来源：人民日报） ...

前10个月，手机产量达12.5亿台，其中智能手机产量10.2亿台，同比增长0.7%，终端产品供给适配市场 多元需求；集成电路产量3866亿块，同比增长10.2%，核心零部件产能稳步提升，为产业高质量发展筑 牢基础。 效益端实现稳步提升 工业和信息化部最新数据显示，前10个月，规模以上电子信息制造业增加值同比增长10.6%，增速分别 比同期工业、高技术制造业高4.5个和1.3个百分点，展现出较强的产业韧性与发展活力。 从整体发展来看，前10个月电子信息制造业生产、效益"双向好"，既体现出我国电子信息制造业产业链 供应链的稳定优势，也反映出核心技术突破与产业结构优化对增长的有力支撑生产端保持稳定增长态 势，主要产品供给充足。 盈利水平持续优化 前10个月，规模以上电子信息制造业实现营业收入14万亿元，同比增长8.3%；营业成本12.2万亿元，同 比增长8.1%；实现利润总额5700亿元，同比增长12.8%，利润增速高于营收增速，反映出产业提质增效 成效明显。营业收入利润率为4.07%，较前9个月提高0.1个百分点，表明企业盈利能力持续改善，产业 发展质量不断提升。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Economic Overview - Dongguan's industrial added value for the first ten months of 2025 increased by 4.2% year-on-year, indicating stable industrial production growth [1] - The advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw added value growth of 6.4% and 7.9% respectively [1] Foreign Trade - Dongguan's total foreign trade import and export value reached 1,298.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [2] - Imports amounted to 505.62 billion yuan, up 25.4%, while exports were 792.62 billion yuan, increasing by 8.7% [2] - The number of foreign trade enterprises in Dongguan increased by 12.2% to 26,000, with private enterprises accounting for 21,000 and contributing 62.7% of the total trade value [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Dongguan decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous months [3] - Excluding real estate development, fixed asset investment grew by 16.9%, with advanced manufacturing investment rising by 51.2% and high-tech manufacturing investment increasing by 66.0% [3] - Real estate development investment fell by 49.2%, with a 27.3% decrease in the sales area of commercial housing [3] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Dongguan reached 359.763 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.6% [3]

人民财讯11月27日电，近日，工业和信息化部电子信息司有关负责同志带队赴辽宁省、黑龙江省开展产 业发展形势调研。中国电子信息产业发展研究院、中国半导体行业协会、中国电子电路行业协会相关同 志参加调研。 会议强调，电子信息制造业是国民经济的战略性、基础性、先导性产业，人工智能等技术的颠覆性变革 为产业发展带来了新的机遇，在复杂国内外政治经济形势变化背景下要坚定不移推动电子信息制造业稳 增长，加强全国性和地方性电子信息领域社会组织、智库等长效化组织队伍建设，推动电子信息制造业 国内合理有序布局和区域协同联动，发挥东北地区地理区位特点，探索国际合作新方向、新路径，推动 东北地区电子信息制造业高质量发展。 ...

Economic Overview - Dongguan's economy showed overall stability in the first ten months of 2025, with a focus on high-quality development and the implementation of various policy measures [2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 4.2% year-on-year. Key industries such as electronic information manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, and chemical manufacturing saw increases of 7.5%, 8.5%, and 10.8% respectively [3] - New momentum industries performed well, with advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing added value growing by 6.4% and 7.9% respectively. High-tech product output also saw significant growth, with integrated circuits, smartwatches, servers, and sensors increasing by 78.4%, 34.2%, 28.8%, and 24.6% respectively [3] Foreign Trade - The total foreign trade import and export volume reached 12,982.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, with imports at 5,056.2 billion yuan (up 25.4%) and exports at 7,926.2 billion yuan (up 8.7%). In October, the total foreign trade volume grew by 17.3% year-on-year [4] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods amounted to 3,597.63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. Notable growth was seen in dining revenue (up 2.4%) and retail of goods (up 1.4%). Certain essential and upgraded goods experienced strong sales, with retail sales of staple food, hardware, and sports entertainment goods increasing by 50.0%, 26.6%, and 26.1% respectively [5] - Online consumption also surged, with retail sales through public networks increasing by 19.6% year-on-year [5] Fixed Asset Investment - Total fixed asset investment decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous nine months. Excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 16.9% [6][7] - Investment in advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing saw significant increases of 51.2% and 66.0% respectively, while real estate development investment fell by 49.2% [7] Financial Market - By the end of October, the balance of deposits in financial institutions reached 28,929.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while the balance of loans was 19,917.25 billion yuan, up 3.4% [8] Consumer Price Index - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 1.0% year-on-year, with six categories of goods and services experiencing price declines. Notably, transportation and communication prices fell by 3.1%, while medical care prices rose by 1.5% [9]

前三季度，东莞生产供给增长稳定，进出口保持较快增长，新动能发展向好，全市经济顶住压力，经济 运行总体平稳。具体到镇街，投资、消费和外贸"三驾马车"在需求端的一系列积极表现，再次彰显了这 座城市经济的强大韧性。 有镇街消费、进出口、招商引资等关键指标全面飘红，生产、消费、投资、外贸等方面协同发力，为区 域高质量发展注入澎湃动力，也有镇街经济企稳向好的基础仍需加力巩固。进入冲刺全年目标的关键四 季度，"挖存量、扩增量"激活潜能、提升服务能级促发展、项目投产转化实际产能，各镇街正在全力跑 出高质量发展的加速度。 19个镇街相继公布前三季度主要经济数据，两镇GDP增速超15% 日前，东莞多个镇街相继公布2025年前三季度主要经济数据。截至11月19日，已有19个镇街对外公布、 尚有13个镇街未对外公布。在已公布的镇街当中，有两镇的GDP增速超15%，两镇的GDP负增长。 根据广东省地区生产总值统一核算结果，2025年前三季度，东莞全市地区生产总值（GDP）9318.93亿 元，同比增长4.5%，高于全省平均4.1%的增速。 南都N视频记者梳理发现，截至11月19日，东莞32个镇街当中已有19个镇街相继公布了今年前三季 ...

Core Points - The European Academy's China Center project was officially signed in Chongqing, aiming to serve as a significant bridge for talent exchange and technology transfer between China and Europe [1] - The project will facilitate collaboration in fields such as biosensing, smart terminals, and basic materials, promoting a positive cycle from research and development to results transformation [1] - The establishment of the center is expected to enhance innovation cooperation, attract European scientists for collaborative efforts, and deepen research exchanges [1] Summary by Categories - **Project Overview** - The European Academy plans to set up the China Center in Chongqing with support from the Chongqing Municipal Science and Technology Bureau [1] - The center will accelerate the integration of China and Europe in various technological fields [1] - **Strategic Importance** - The project is anticipated to improve Chongqing's visibility and influence in Europe, fostering cooperation with various European economies [1] - The center is seen as a platform for building collaborative relationships with more influential academic organizations globally [1] - **Leadership Insights** - The President of the European Academy emphasized the need for sustainable electronic technologies to address future challenges [1] - A Chinese Academy of Sciences academician highlighted the project's potential to serve as a model for international academic collaboration [1]

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth rate at constant prices in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - Manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49.0%, down from 49.8% in the previous month and 50.1% in the same period last year [1] - Non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in October 2025 was 50.1%, up slightly from 50.0% in the previous month but down from 50.2% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - China's S&P Manufacturing PMI in October was 50.6, down from 51.2 in the previous month, with the expansion trend slowing [2] - In the first three quarters, the added value of large-scale electronic information manufacturing increased by 10.9% year-on-year, outperforming the overall industry and high-tech manufacturing [2] - China and the EU held export control dialogue consultations in Brussels, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [2] 2.2 Metals - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China suspended and then resumed its gold accumulation business on November 3 [5] - Lithium carbonate prices have been rising recently, driven by unexpected demand and accelerated inventory depletion [6] - The three-month zinc futures on the London Metal Exchange reached $3,097 per ton, a new high since December 2024 [6] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Baosteel adjusted its production capacity target to "over 80 million tons", focusing on synergy and value creation [8] - Global iron ore shipments from October 27 to November 2 decreased by 174.5 tons compared to the previous period [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On November 3, the main contract of US crude oil closed higher after OPEC+ decided to suspend the planned production increase in Q1 2026 [9] - BP's CEO expects electricity demand to grow from 1% to 10% of the global economy in the next 5 - 10 years, driven by AI [9] 2.5 Agricultural Products - As of last Thursday, the planting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 47% of the expected area [11] - India's soybean oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year soared by 61.6% year-on-year to a record 5.56 million tons [11] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On November 3, the central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan [12] 3.2 Key News - China's S&P Manufacturing PMI expansion slowed in October, but upcoming policies may support the index [13] - Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth [15] - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held from November 5 - 10 in Shanghai [15] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed narrow fluctuations, with long-term bonds performing slightly better [19] - The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly declined, and the 30-year main contract fell 0.11% [19] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1225 against the US dollar on November 3, down 90 points from the previous trading day [24] - The US dollar index rose 0.15% to 99.87 in New York trading [24] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the bond market will likely remain range-bound, and investors should focus on medium-term, high-coupon credit bonds [25] - Yangtze River Fixed Income expects the bond market to recover in Q4, with the yield of the 10-year treasury bond (tax-exempt) potentially falling to 1.65% - 1.7% [25] 4. Stock Market Key News - A shares rebounded after hitting a low, with Hainan Free Trade Zone and AI application themes leading the gains [30] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3,976.52 points, and the total turnover of A shares was 2.13 trillion yuan [30] - The Hang Seng Index rose 0.97% to 26,158.36 points, and southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$5.472 billion [30]