Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market performance [24]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued slowdown in credit growth, with October's new credit addition at 2.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8 trillion yuan. The total new credit for the first ten months of the year is 14.97 trillion yuan, down 1.6 trillion yuan year-on-year [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring forward-looking indicators such as PPI, which has shown signs of recovery, potentially improving the demand for real economy and reflecting positively on bank profits [5][6]. - The banking sector is expected to stabilize net interest margins, leading to improved net interest income growth. The focus will be on leading banks and quality regional banks for investment opportunities [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - In October, new social financing was 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan, with a stock growth rate of 8.5%, down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month. M1 grew by 6.2%, while M2 grew by 8.2%, both showing a decline in growth rates compared to the previous month [3][6][9]. Credit Market Analysis - The report notes a significant decrease in corporate general loans, with a drop of 1.6 trillion yuan in October. The decline in corporate short-term loans was 1.9 trillion yuan, while bill discounting increased by over 500 billion yuan [5][6]. - Retail credit demand remains under pressure, with a net decrease of nearly 360 billion yuan in household credit in October, indicating a continued deleveraging phase for households [5][6]. Government Debt and Social Financing - The issuance of government bonds has slowed, contributing to the continued decline in social financing growth. In October, government bond issuance was 203.3 billion yuan, down over 560 billion yuan year-on-year [5][6]. - The report anticipates that the contribution from government bonds will weaken further, as the issuance for 2024 is expected to peak in the fourth quarter [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading banks and undervalued regional banks as key investment themes. It highlights the potential for valuation recovery in leading banks and the opportunity for growth in quality regional banks under favorable policies [5][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [3][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued slowdown in credit growth, with new social financing in October at 815 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion, and new loans at 220 billion, down 280 billion year-on-year [3][5]. - The report emphasizes a shift towards "quantity-price balance" and "efficiency first" as the new normal in the banking sector, driven by the central bank's focus on stabilizing net interest margins [5]. - The report suggests that the banking sector's net interest income growth is expected to improve as interest margins stabilize and recover in the coming year [5]. Summary by Sections Credit Growth - In October, credit continued to slow down, with a year-on-year decrease of nearly 300 billion. The total new loans from January to October amounted to 14.97 trillion, a decrease of 1.6 trillion year-on-year [5]. - Corporate general loans decreased by 160 billion, while bill discounting increased by over 500 billion, indicating a shift in lending strategies [5]. Retail Lending - Retail short-term and medium-to-long-term loan demands remain under pressure, with a net decrease of nearly 360 billion in October, reflecting ongoing deleveraging in the household sector [5][19]. Social Financing - New social financing in October was 815 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion, and the stock of social financing grew by 8.5% year-on-year, with a slight decline in growth rate [5][6]. Monetary Supply - M1 grew by 6.2% year-on-year, with a decrease in growth rate of 1.0 percentage points, while M2 grew by 8.2%, with a decline in growth rate of 0.2 percentage points [9][6]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on leading banks and undervalued regional banks as key investment opportunities, with a positive outlook for banks with strong fundamentals and dividend yields [5][21].

——2025 年 5 月份金融数据点评 银行业 买入（维持） 2025 年 6 月 15 日 行业研究 信用扩张走向量价平衡 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 如何看待 4 月社融与信贷"大劈叉"？——2025 年 4 月份金融数据点评 贷款投放超预期，关注需求修复持续性——2025 年 3 月份金融数据点评 2 月信用活动的"三组关系"——2025 年 2 月份金 融数据点评 1 月信贷"开门红"超预期——2025 年 1 月份金融 数据点评 社融增速触底回升——2024 年 12 月份金融数据点 评 年末贷款增长拖累因素增多——2024 年 11 月份金 融数据点评 货币增速筑底回升，静待政策"组合拳"显效—— 2024 年 10 月份金融数据点评 政策聚焦"房"与"股"，托举资产价格助力需求 修复——2024 年 9 月份 ...

Core Viewpoint - YTO Express reported a revenue of 69.03 billion and a net profit of 4.01 billion for 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 19.7% and 7.8% respectively, with the express delivery business contributing 62.29 billion and 4.31 billion, showing growth of 19.2% and 12.2% [1] Group 1: Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total volume of 26.57 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, outperforming the industry growth rate of 21.5% by 3.8 percentage points [2] - The average price per parcel decreased by 4.9% to 2.30 yuan, which was better than the industry average decline of 6.3% [2] - In Q1 2025, the company continued to outperform the industry with a parcel volume increase of 21.7% compared to the industry’s 21.6%, while the average price per parcel fell by 6.3% against the industry’s 8.8% [2] Group 2: Cost and Profitability - The single parcel cost decreased by 4.0% to 2.09 yuan, with transportation costs down by 9.4% to 0.42 yuan due to optimized fleet structure and routing [2] - The single parcel gross profit fell by 12.6% to 0.20 yuan, attributed to ongoing industry competition and declining revenue per parcel [2] - The four expense ratios increased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.4%, with financial expenses rising significantly by 259.6% due to increased interest payments and reduced interest income [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 16% to 4.42 billion and 5.07 billion respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 5.72 billion [3] - The company is assigned a 2025 PE ratio of 14.0x, compared to the industry average of 12.5x, reflecting a premium due to improved management efficiency and service quality [3] - The target price has been adjusted to 17.89 yuan from a previous 23.70 yuan, while maintaining a "buy" rating [3]