中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 美降息如何影响中国资产？ >>点击图片查看全文<< 我们梳理了美联储降息影响中国资产的逻辑，主要分为三个方面：1）美联储降息一定程度或有助于缓解我国货币政策外部掣肘。2）美 国降息可能带来弱势美元。3）美联储降息往往伴随全球资金再配置。中金策略团队在近期发布的《 牛市成因之辩——国际货币体系变 迁视角 》认为，美元贬值和创新叙事反转相结合，两者反映的全球货币秩序重构可能是本轮市场行情的核心驱动力，新货币秩序下人 民币资产相对受益；如果政策应对得当，人民币资产有望受益于全球货币体系加速碎片化、多元化的双重红利——碎片化加速中国在海 外的资金回流，多元化驱动全球资金再平衡，或有部分资金流向中国资本市场。美联储重启降息或将促进全球资金流动性释放、对美元 汇率形成一定下行压力，从而有望进一步推动全球资金再配置。 2025.9.14 | 李求索 张歆瑜等 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 股市配置的空间 >>点击图片查看全文<< 我们之前的研究指出，金融周期调整导致资产配置大幅变化，ROE改善之前股市会经历一个再配置带来的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the phenomenon of improving GDP growth alongside weak inflation, attributing this to financial cycle adjustments and restrained policy measures, leading to a widening demand gap that suppresses inflation growth [1][2][3]. Economic Performance - Over the past two quarters, GDP year-on-year growth has reached 5.4%, while inflation remains weak, with CPI growth close to zero due to the drag from food prices, particularly pork [2][12]. - The core CPI inflation is lower than previous predictions, indicating a persistent divergence between economic growth and inflation [2][12]. Labor Market Dynamics - Economic structure optimization and technological advancements have led to a decrease in labor intensity, with labor demand slowing down. By 2024, labor intensity in China's secondary and tertiary industries is expected to be around 70-80 compared to 2018 levels [3][29]. - The overall unemployment rate remains stable, but income growth has slowed, indicating a shift towards a "quasi-equilibrium" state in the labor market [3][51]. Future Economic Outlook - The "quasi-equilibrium" growth is expected to continue in the second half of the year, with GDP year-on-year growth projected at approximately 5.0% for the year [4][56]. - CPI inflation is anticipated to remain low, with core inflation showing slight improvement but still expected to be in a negative range for the year [4][60]. Structural Changes - The financial cycle is transitioning, with a gradual reduction in the negative impact of real estate on the economy. The contribution of real estate to GDP growth turned negative in the second half of 2021, but this drag is diminishing [8][12]. - The shift towards new economic models, including high-end manufacturing, is increasing production efficiency and altering the labor market dynamics [16][22]. Consumption and Investment Trends - Consumer spending is expected to stabilize, with the "old-for-new" policy contributing to retail sales growth, although its impact may weaken in the fourth quarter due to base effects [45][54]. - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow by around 4.0% for the year, with manufacturing investment expected to increase by 8.0% [55][56]. Trade and Export Dynamics - Exports are facing challenges from tariffs but are expected to show resilience, with a projected year-on-year growth of around 4.0% [56][57]. - The import growth is anticipated to be structurally weak, with a potential year-on-year growth close to zero [56][57].