李求索认为，有较多的成长领域将会延续景气，市场风格有望趋向均衡，可关注三条主线：1.景气成 长：AI(人工智能)领域有望逐步进入应用兑现阶段，算力、光模块、云计算基础设施层面仍有机会，或 更偏国产方向；应用端关注机器人、消费电子、智能驾驶和软件应用等。2.外需突围：结合出海趋势和 对美敞口，关注家电、工程机械、商用客车、电网设备和游戏，以及有色金属等全球定价资源品。3.周 期反转：关注供需问题临近改善拐点或政策支持领域，如化工、养殖业、新能源等。 李求索表示，期待资本市场政策进一步促进市场"长期""稳进"。在国际货币体系重构、全球资金再配置 的背景下，可进一步推动资本市场对外开放，例如增加外资可投资范围、鼓励中资券商国际化发展等。 在支持科创企业融资、提升市场包容度的同时，继续优化中长期资金入市机制，从而更好地配合科创企 业对耐心资本的需求，同时为活跃的市场增加稳定性与韧性。(马静) 中金公司（601995）研究部首席国内策略分析师李求索表示，2026年，国际秩序重构与中国产业创新两 大因素共振，将支持A股表现。从节奏上看，市场或将呈现前升后稳，在资金活跃及估值抬升背景下， 可关注波动率提升及与基本面匹配的节 ...

Group 1: Global Narrative Shifts - The "narrative inflection points" driving global capital reallocation include changes in overseas economies, AI advancements reshaping US-China dynamics, and a decrease in China's economic tail risks[4]. - The narrative power is expected to persist into 2026, with global monetary policies remaining accommodative and fiscal expansion opportunities greater in non-US countries than in the US[4]. - The "narrative inflection points" encompass three layers: the end of the "American exceptionalism," Europe's awakening, and the decline of tail risks in the Chinese economy[4]. Group 2: Economic Rebalancing in China - The main theme for China's macroeconomic strategy in 2026 is transitioning from capital reallocation to economic rebalancing, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" draft[4]. - Key shifts in ideology during the "14th Five-Year" period include prioritizing demand-side policies over supply-side policies, emphasizing consumption over investment, and focusing on "investment in people" alongside "investment in goods"[4]. - Fiscal policy is expected to enter a "rigid expansion" phase, maintaining a budget deficit ratio of 4%, with slight increases in special government bonds and local government bonds[4]. Group 3: Economic Growth Projections - The GDP target for 2026 is projected to remain around 5%, with an expected actual completion of 4.9%, indicating a flat "U-shaped" growth trajectory[4]. - Consumer subsidy policies are anticipated to increase by 100-200 billion yuan on top of the 300 billion yuan allocated in 2025 to support service consumption[4]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise moderately to 0.4%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by 0.9%[4]. Group 4: Industry Opportunities and Risks - From a macro perspective, technology remains a primary investment focus, but consumer investment value is also expected to emerge[5]. - Potential risks for 2026 include the ongoing US-China relationship dynamics, uncertainties in the European economy, and pressures in the domestic real estate market[5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are likely to lead to a global reallocation of funds, benefiting Chinese assets amid a backdrop of restructuring in the global monetary system, characterized by a depreciation of the dollar and a reversal of innovative narratives [1] Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve's Actions - Interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to enhance global liquidity, potentially putting downward pressure on the dollar's exchange rate, which may further facilitate global fund reallocation [1] - Proper policy responses could allow Chinese assets to benefit from the dual dividends of accelerated fragmentation and diversification of the global monetary system [1] Group 2: Opportunities in Chinese Assets - Fragmentation is likely to accelerate the repatriation of funds to China, while diversification may drive a rebalancing of global funds, with some capital possibly flowing into Chinese capital markets [1] - In the context of renminbi appreciation and reinforced by the Fed's rate cuts, there is optimism for a "catch-up" rally in Hong Kong stocks, shifting focus from "takeout narratives" to "AI narratives" [1] Group 3: Investment Products - The Hong Kong stock market technology sector is highlighted, particularly ETFs that cover the entire technology supply chain and focus on leading internet companies [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.24%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.44% [1] - Semiconductor company SMIC continued its upward trend, opening up 0.78% [1] - China Merchants Port dropped by 2.46%, while China Resources Power rose by 4.28% [1] - Resource stocks led the decline, with Zijin Mining falling over 2% [1] Southbound Trading - Southbound trading was closed due to the National Day holiday [2] Company News - Chery Automobile reported total sales of 255,600 vehicles in September, a year-on-year increase of approximately 9%. Among these, 83,500 were new energy vehicles, and 131,400 were exported [3] - Nocoda Technology signed a cooperation agreement with Tsinghua AIR to promote the application of AI products and robotics solutions across various industries [3] - Dongfeng Group submitted an application for the listing of its brand Lantu to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 2, 2025 [4] Institutional Insights - Guoyuan Hong Kong believes that the key focus for the market will continue to revolve around two main lines: the commercialization of AI technology and the improvement of corporate profitability, with performance expectations needing to be validated by subsequent financial reports [5] - Fund manager Tian Ximeng from the Fortune China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF stated that global capital reallocation is expected to open a repricing window, benefiting quality industries in Hong Kong if risk appetite improves [5] - HSBC Jintrust Fund manager Xu Tingquan noted that the valuation of the Hong Kong tech sector remains significantly advantageous, with the Hang Seng Tech Index's price-to-earnings ratio at 23.32 times, positioned at the 32.84% percentile over the past five years, indicating a historical relative low [5]

Exchange Rate and Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in the offshore RMB have seen it appreciate to around 7.08 in mid-September before dropping below 7.14[3] - The RMB's recent depreciation is more pronounced compared to the USD's movements, indicating a shift in the RMB's elasticity[4] - The RMB has shown a "pro-cyclical" behavior, appreciating when the USD is under pressure and depreciating when the USD rebounds[4] Policy and Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted its stance on the RMB, moving from a focus on stability to allowing greater elasticity post the May negotiations with the US[5] - Recent policy adjustments by the PBOC aim to stabilize the currency while managing economic pressures, avoiding excessive appreciation of the RMB[5] - The influx of southbound capital has increased RMB liquidity, contributing to a lower offshore RMB interest rate compared to the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR)[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include significant changes in US trade policies and unexpected tariff expansions that could lead to a global economic slowdown[6]

Group 1: Strategy - The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on Chinese assets is analyzed, highlighting three main aspects: easing external constraints on China's monetary policy, potential for a weaker dollar, and global capital reallocation [5] - The combination of dollar depreciation and a reversal in innovative narratives may drive the current market trend, with Chinese assets benefiting from a fragmented and diversified global monetary system [5] - Proper policy responses could lead to a dual benefit for RMB assets from the accelerated fragmentation and diversification of the global monetary system, potentially attracting foreign capital back to Chinese markets [5] Group 2: Macroeconomy - Financial cycle adjustments are expected to significantly alter asset allocation, with a systematic increase in the proportion of safe assets and a potential decrease in real estate allocation, even if property prices return to previous highs [8][9] - The shift in the financial cycle reflects a transformation in economic growth models and monetary sources, with non-monetary factors like increased stock dividend rates and long-term capital inflows providing support for the stock market [9] Group 3: Strategy - The concept of the "dollar trap" is discussed, where emerging markets face a dilemma of holding large dollar assets while suffering from diminishing purchasing power [9] - The sustainability of the dollar system is questioned, with the author suggesting that the three supporting pillars of the "dollar trap" may be weakening, making it possible to break free from this trap [9] Group 4: Macroeconomy - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut aligns with market expectations, but there are significant divisions among decision-makers regarding future cuts [12] - The current economic issues in the U.S. are attributed to rising costs rather than insufficient demand, indicating that excessive monetary easing may exacerbate inflation and lead to a "stagflation-like" scenario [12] Group 5: Quantitative and ESG - Recent regulatory changes in the public fund industry aim to optimize investor experience by discouraging frequent trading and promoting long-term value creation [14] - The new regulations may reshape the public fund ecosystem and influence the future business models of public bond fund investors [14]

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell below the 97 mark, reaching a two-month low, indicating a weakening dollar trend [2][4] - Market expectations are leaning towards the Federal Reserve initiating a monetary easing cycle, with a nearly complete pricing of a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17 and a 70% probability of two additional cuts by the end of the year [4] - Analysts suggest that the dollar index remains weak, having declined nearly 11% year-to-date, reflecting expectations of accelerated policy easing and improved risk appetite [4] Group 2 - According to research from CICC, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may alleviate external constraints on China's monetary policy [5] - A weaker dollar resulting from US rate cuts could lead to a depreciation of the dollar against the yuan, impacting export-oriented and overseas enterprises, while reducing repayment pressure for companies with dollar-denominated debt [5] - The resumption of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is expected to promote global liquidity release, potentially benefiting Chinese assets amid a backdrop of global monetary system restructuring [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts in September 2024, with three cuts anticipated in 2024, but no cuts since then due to various uncertainties [1] - Recent U.S. inflation data shows a slight increase, with the August CPI rising 2.9% year-on-year and core CPI at 3.1%, compared to 2.7% and 3.0% respectively in the previous month [1] - Non-farm employment data for August indicates an increase of 22,000 jobs, which is below market expectations, and a significant downward revision of 911,000 jobs for the period from April 2024 to March 2025 [1] Group 2 - The market probability for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September exceeds 90%, with probabilities for cuts in October and December also above 70% [1][3] - Historical analysis shows that during previous Fed rate cut cycles, sectors such as non-bank financials and growth stocks in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks tend to perform well [6][7] - In the short term (around 11 weeks), sectors benefiting from market activity, such as non-bank financials, have shown strong performance, while in the medium term (around 20 weeks), sectors like computers, electronics, and communications in A-shares have led in gains [6][7]

Group 1: Currency Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the RMB is seen as a concentrated release of previously "stagnant" gains, influenced by both policy and stock market movements[1] - Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the RMB has appreciated significantly, with the central bank's midpoint rate adjusted up by 258 pips since August 25[2] - The RMB's previous stagnation, with only a 1.2% increase since January despite a 10% decline in the USD index, created momentum for this appreciation[3] Group 2: Market Interactions - The strong rebound in the A-share market on August 28 coincided with the RMB's rapid appreciation, indicating a restoration of market sentiment[3] - The A-share market has shown a notable profit effect compared to US markets, leading to a potential inflow of funds back into China[3] - The RMB's recent rise is not solely due to cross-border capital inflows; it is also seen as an attractive carry currency, prompting institutional buying[4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The RMB's appreciation trend is expected to continue, with potential to reach around 7 against the USD if the central bank eases restrictions[6] - The central bank may adopt a gradual approach to adjusting the midpoint rate to avoid excessive market volatility[6] - The shift in global asset allocation towards higher-yielding RMB assets is likely to support the A-share market and enhance confidence in economic recovery[6]

Group 1 - The ICE dollar index has experienced a significant decline of nearly 11% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest drop since the Nixon era in 1973 [1] - Experts predict that the dollar index is likely to continue its downward trend for the next 6 to 7 years, with potential lows below 71.3 or stabilizing around 80, depending on the performance of other economies [1] - The weakening dollar is expected to lead to a "stable but rising" trend in the RMB to USD exchange rate, which could attract more cross-border capital inflows and support the internationalization of the RMB [2][3] Group 2 - There is a noticeable trend of capital flowing out of the U.S., with many international stock markets outperforming U.S. markets this year, indicating a structural shift away from dollar assets [2] - The current global investment environment is characterized by uncertainty, with a focus on "de-dollarization" leading to increased capital inflows into emerging markets, particularly in Asia [3] - The outlook for Chinese assets remains positive, supported by favorable fiscal policies and a low-interest-rate environment, which is expected to attract more capital into the stock market [3]