Report Overview - The report is an event review of the economic data for July 2025 released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 15, 2025, covering production, consumption, investment, market, and bond market views [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement; the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6]. Summary by Section Production - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.7%, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in June, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.38%. The growth rate slowed down slightly due to seasonal factors [2]. - The equipment manufacturing industry continued to play a key role in industrial production. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry above the designated size was 8.4%, significantly supporting the growth of industrial enterprises above the designated size [2]. - The high - end trend of the manufacturing industry continued. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of the added value of the high - tech manufacturing industry and the digital product manufacturing industry above the designated size were 9.3% and 8.4% respectively, both higher than the growth rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size. The integrated circuit and electronic special material manufacturing industries grew by 26.9% and 21.7% respectively [2]. Consumption - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in June, and the month - on - month decline was 0.14%. The year - on - year decline in total retail sales was mainly due to the suspension of national subsidies in some regions [3]. - In July, the year - on - year growth rates of catering revenue and catering revenue of units above the designated size were 1.1% and - 0.3% respectively, up 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from June. With the cooling of subsidies on food delivery platforms, catering revenue is expected to bottom out and rebound [3]. Investment - From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment was 1.6%, 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June; after excluding real estate development investment, the year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment was 5.3%, 1.3 percentage points lower than that from January to June [4]. - The investment in water conservancy management and information transmission industries from January to July increased by 12.6% and 8.3% respectively. The investment in equipment and tools increased by 15.2% year - on - year, accounting for 16.2% of the total investment and driving the overall investment growth by 2.2 percentage points [4]. - From January to July, the year - on - year decline in real estate development investment was 12%, 0.8 percentage points wider than that from January to June. The sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.0% and 6.5% respectively year - on - year, with the decline rates 0.5 and 1.0 percentage points wider than those from January to June, both at the lowest growth rates of the year. The real estate investment is searching for the bottom. The national real estate climate index further declined to 93.34, still in a low - level climate range [4]. Market - After the economic data were released at 10:00, the yields fluctuated downward under the push of the fundamentals and the support of funds. However, after the mid - day break, affected by the strong performance of the stock market, the yields fluctuated upward again [5]. Bond Market Viewpoints - Under the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trendingly. For the allocation between stocks and bonds, the report maintains the view that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement; the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6].

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Province's electricity consumption in the first half of the year reached 156.96 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, indicating a stable and improving economic performance [1][3] Group 1: Electricity Consumption by Sector - The first sector's electricity consumption was 1.40 billion kWh, up 6.81% year-on-year [1] - The second sector's electricity consumption was 1,126 billion kWh, increasing by 5.05% year-on-year [1] - The third sector's electricity consumption was 254.67 billion kWh, with a growth of 12.18% year-on-year [1] - Residential electricity consumption reached 174.9 billion kWh, growing by 6.29% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Industrial Electricity Consumption - Industrial electricity consumption increased by 5.17% year-on-year, reflecting the acceleration of transformation and upgrading [2] - Electricity consumption in the non-ferrous metal mining and selection industry grew by 23.97%, while the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries saw a 16.41% increase [2] - The coal mining and washing industry experienced a 7.98% rise in electricity consumption [2] - The photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing industry saw a significant increase of 671.83% in electricity consumption [2] Group 3: Growth in New Energy and Services - New energy vehicle manufacturing, medical instrument manufacturing, urban rail transit equipment manufacturing, and instrument manufacturing experienced electricity consumption growth rates of 197.09%, 36.5%, 27.2%, and 25.63% respectively [2] - The service sector's electricity consumption grew by 12.48%, with internet data services increasing by 43.28% [2] - The charging and swapping service industry saw a remarkable increase of 91.1% in electricity consumption due to the promotion of heavy-duty electric vehicle policies and the popularity of residential new energy vehicles [2] - The tourism industry grew by 14.78%, positively impacting wholesale and retail electricity consumption, which increased by 27.8% [2]

Economic Overview - China's GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - The primary industry added value was 31,172 billion yuan (3.7% growth), the secondary industry was 239,050 billion yuan (5.3% growth), and the tertiary industry was 390,314 billion yuan (5.5% growth) [2] - The GDP growth for Q1 was 5.4% and for Q2 was 5.2%, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q2 [2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.4%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing leading at 10.2% and 9.5% respectively [3] - Emerging products such as 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots saw production increases of 43.1%, 36.2%, and 35.6% respectively, indicating enhanced technological innovation and a solidified position in the global supply chain [3] Service Sector Growth - The tertiary industry increased by 5.5%, with modern service sectors like information transmission, software, and IT services showing significant growth [3] - Despite the manufacturing purchasing manager index remaining in contraction territory, the business activity expectation index reached 52.0, indicating a recovery in market confidence [3] Consumer Insights - The per capita disposable income for residents was 21,840 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.3%, aligning with GDP growth [4] - Retail sales in various categories showed significant growth, including food and beverage (12.3%), sports and entertainment goods (22.2%), and household appliances (30.7%) [4] Policy Impact - Supply-side growth is supported by the development of technology-intensive industries and targeted macro policies, such as tax incentives for high-end manufacturing and financing support for SMEs [4] - Consumer policies, such as trade-in programs and subsidies, have stimulated short-term consumption and pressured companies to accelerate technological upgrades, creating a virtuous cycle of consumption and industrial upgrades [5] Future Outlook - The consumption market is expected to remain active in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing consumer policies [5] - The cycle of income growth, consumption upgrade, and industrial transformation is anticipated to drive high-quality economic development [5]

Core Viewpoint - The essence of "anti-involution" and capacity reduction is a necessary requirement for the deep transformation of China's economy and optimization of its economic structure [1] Group 1: Key Points on Capacity Reduction - The previous round of capacity reduction was significantly effective due to four key points: the importance of capacity reduction being elevated to the level of people's livelihood and social stability, the central government clearly defining the scale of excess capacity, state-owned enterprises being the main force in capacity reduction, and ensuring employment and livelihood as a crucial bottom line [2] - The central government's continuous emphasis on "anti-involution" helps improve market expectations regarding the correction of supply surplus [3] - The short-term focus of "anti-involution" will primarily be on controlling new capacity while optimizing existing capacity, with limited market clearing intensity [4] Group 2: Industry Self-Regulation and Standards - Current optimization of existing capacity mainly relies on self-regulation at the industry association level, differing from the administrative measures of the previous round of capacity reduction [5] - Low-standard backward capacity is expected to exit first, with the definition of backward capacity evolving to include industry technical standards alongside energy consumption and environmental protection [6] - Industries with low capacity utilization and high energy consumption or environmental requirements are likely to push for the exit of backward capacity more quickly, while industries with lower capacity utilization but higher technical characteristics may require clearer definitions before proceeding [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the phenomenon of improving GDP growth alongside weak inflation, attributing this to financial cycle adjustments and restrained policy measures, leading to a widening demand gap that suppresses inflation growth [1][2][3]. Economic Performance - Over the past two quarters, GDP year-on-year growth has reached 5.4%, while inflation remains weak, with CPI growth close to zero due to the drag from food prices, particularly pork [2][12]. - The core CPI inflation is lower than previous predictions, indicating a persistent divergence between economic growth and inflation [2][12]. Labor Market Dynamics - Economic structure optimization and technological advancements have led to a decrease in labor intensity, with labor demand slowing down. By 2024, labor intensity in China's secondary and tertiary industries is expected to be around 70-80 compared to 2018 levels [3][29]. - The overall unemployment rate remains stable, but income growth has slowed, indicating a shift towards a "quasi-equilibrium" state in the labor market [3][51]. Future Economic Outlook - The "quasi-equilibrium" growth is expected to continue in the second half of the year, with GDP year-on-year growth projected at approximately 5.0% for the year [4][56]. - CPI inflation is anticipated to remain low, with core inflation showing slight improvement but still expected to be in a negative range for the year [4][60]. Structural Changes - The financial cycle is transitioning, with a gradual reduction in the negative impact of real estate on the economy. The contribution of real estate to GDP growth turned negative in the second half of 2021, but this drag is diminishing [8][12]. - The shift towards new economic models, including high-end manufacturing, is increasing production efficiency and altering the labor market dynamics [16][22]. Consumption and Investment Trends - Consumer spending is expected to stabilize, with the "old-for-new" policy contributing to retail sales growth, although its impact may weaken in the fourth quarter due to base effects [45][54]. - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow by around 4.0% for the year, with manufacturing investment expected to increase by 8.0% [55][56]. Trade and Export Dynamics - Exports are facing challenges from tariffs but are expected to show resilience, with a projected year-on-year growth of around 4.0% [56][57]. - The import growth is anticipated to be structurally weak, with a potential year-on-year growth close to zero [56][57].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the private economy in China is showing a stable and positive development trend, particularly in the manufacturing and high-tech industries, contributing significantly to macroeconomic stability [1][3] - In the first four months of this year, the sales revenue of the private economy increased by 3.6% year-on-year, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the national average, accounting for 71.3% of the total sales revenue of all enterprises [1] - Employment in the private economy is steadily growing, with 79.4% of all enterprise employees contributing to pension insurance, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous year [1] Group 2 - Tax reductions and exemptions for the private economy amounted to 351.88 billion yuan in the first four months, representing 64.6% of the total tax benefits, indicating strong governmental support for private enterprises [2] - The tax authority has launched a series of initiatives to enhance the development environment for small and micro enterprises, including collaborative actions with seven other ministries to improve service efficiency [2] - The number of tax-related private economic entities increased by 7.6% year-on-year, making up 97.6% of all tax-related entities, demonstrating the sustained vitality of the private economy [3]