我们无法精准预测未来，但可锚定趋势躬身蓄力。 历史昭示，在宏大转折处，最大的风险往往来自认知的停滞。所有的投资都是对未来预期的下注和认知 变现。考验的是洞察力、预见性，以及面对未知的纪律和心性。此刻，比追逐短期风口更重要的，是认 清所处的历史方位；比预测巿场波动更可贵的，是建立起对长期趋势的信仰。投资的要义，亘古未变 ——于混沌中识别秩序，在波动中坚守价值。 旗杆，耸立于平芜尽处，标注方向。它植根坚实大地，连通时代脉搏，只为在风起之时，高扬旗帜。 新程正启排云上，且向东风万里扬。 放眼全球，秩序在重构，逻辑在改写。大国博弈与产业链的深度调整，反而淬炼出中国制造的坚韧与远 见。"自主可控"与"扬帆出海"，从对立的矛盾，演化为一体两翼的战略平衡。潮水的方向昭示：中国作 为全球核心增长极与创新策源地的地位无可替代。全球资产管理人正面临一个现实：远离中国市场，可 能意味着偏离业绩基准，并错失一个时代的增长机遇！ 向内审视，一场历史性的财富迁移正在上演：房地产投资属性弱化，百万亿级居民可投资资产如江河奔 涌，亟需新的价值入海口。资本市场，因其承载着创新的梦想与未来的价值，成为这片汪洋最开阔的港 湾。这既是资产配置的结构 ...

Economic Growth - In November, the domestic GDP growth rate was approximately 4.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from October, continuing the trend of moderation[1] - To achieve the annual growth target of around 5%, the GDP growth in December needs to rebound to above 5.0%, which is unlikely given the current policy focus on quality improvement rather than short-term growth[1] - The expected GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is about 4.3%, further declining from Q3, with an annual growth estimate of approximately 4.9%, remaining within the target range[1] Sector Performance - The main drag on economic growth in November came from the service sector, with the service production index's year-on-year growth rate falling by 0.4 percentage points[2] - The financial sector saw a year-on-year decline of 0.5 percentage points, while the real estate sector's investment and sales figures also worsened, contributing to the pressure on services[2] - Emerging sectors like leasing and business services showed resilience, with growth accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] Consumption and Trade - Consumer activity showed signs of weakening, with logistics delivery volume experiencing its first negative year-on-year growth of -1.3% this year[12] - The average daily box office for movies was approximately 100.4 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186%, driven by the release of popular films[18] - Export container freight rates slightly increased to 1124.73, indicating stable shipping supply and demand relationships[22] Real Estate Market - The price decline in the real estate market continued to expand, with the price index for 70 large and medium-sized cities showing increased year-on-year declines for both new and second-hand homes[48] - Despite seasonal increases in transaction volumes, the absolute levels remain low, marking the worst performance for the same period in recent years[48] - The inventory turnover pressure remains significant, with the sales-to-inventory ratio recorded at 89.1, the highest for the same period since 2019[48]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the overall operation of the bulk commodity market in China is stable, with significant characteristics of new and old kinetic energy conversion [1] Group 1: Price Index Forecast - The average price index for bulk commodities in China is expected to be 112.1 points in 2025, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous year [2] - Among the 50 bulk commodities monitored, 10 are expected to see price increases, with neodymium oxide, refined tin, and corrugated paper projected to rise by 43.4%, 20.6%, and 18.5% respectively [2] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to see a 4.2% increase compared to 2024, driven by the rapid growth of high-tech manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing in sectors such as new energy, photovoltaics, and wind power [3] - The average price index for agricultural products is projected to be 96.7 points, reflecting a 0.4% decrease from the previous year, with stable supply and demand for key agricultural products [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the overall trend of the bulk commodity index will show a pattern of low at the beginning and high at the end, indicating a stabilization and recovery, which reflects a healthier and more sustainable optimization of China's economic structure [4] - The strong resilience and significant domestic demand potential of the Chinese economy are expected to remain the solid foundation for the bulk commodity market in 2026 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the overall price index for bulk commodities in China is expected to show a trend of low first and high later, stabilizing and recovering, reflecting a healthier and more sustainable economic structure [1] - The average price index for bulk commodities in China for 2025 is projected to be 112.1 points, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous year [1] - Among the 50 monitored bulk commodities, 10 are expected to see price increases, with notable rises in neodymium oxide (43.4%), refined tin (20.6%), and corrugated paper (18.5%) [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous price index is expected to stand out with an average of 131 points, an increase of 4.2% year-on-year, driven by high growth in high-tech manufacturing and equipment sectors, alongside supply disruptions from incidents like the mudslide at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine [1] - The black, energy, chemical, and mineral indices are projected to decline, with average values of 78.8 points, 99.1 points, 102.7 points, and 73.9 points respectively, reflecting decreases of 7.5%, 9.9%, 10.2%, and 10.6% [2] - The agricultural product price index is expected to fluctuate downwards, averaging 96.7 points, a slight decrease of 0.4%, attributed to effective implementation of national food security strategies and balanced supply and demand for key agricultural products [2] Group 3 - The overall stability of the bulk commodity market is highlighted, with a clear transition between old and new growth drivers, supported by government policies aimed at promoting consumption and stabilizing growth [3] - The resilience of the Chinese economy and its substantial domestic demand potential are seen as the strongest foundation for the global bulk commodity market moving forward into 2026 [3] - The conference focused on enhancing international influence and building credible trade rules, discussing future trends, challenges, and opportunities in global bulk commodity trade [3]

Core Insights - The overall economic situation in China is improving steadily, with continuous optimization of the economic structure and enhancement of development momentum [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - In the first 11 months of this year, the amount of machinery and equipment purchased by enterprises increased by 10.7% year-on-year, indicating a stronger investment in equipment [1] - The retail sales revenue of the communication and home appliance sectors, which are included in the old-for-new consumption policy, grew by 20.3% and 26.5% year-on-year respectively, reflecting the ongoing effects of consumption promotion policies [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The tax revenue from the manufacturing sector remains stable at around 30%, highlighting its continued role as a "ballast" for the economy [1]

Core Insights - The overall economic performance of China has shown steady improvement this year, with continuous optimization of economic structure and enhancement of development momentum [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - In the first 11 months, the amount of machinery and equipment purchased by enterprises increased by 10.7% year-on-year, indicating a stronger investment in equipment [1] - Sales revenue in the retail sectors of communication and home appliances, supported by the old-for-new consumption policy, grew by 20.3% and 26.5% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting the ongoing effects of consumption promotion policies [1] - The tax revenue from the manufacturing sector remains stable at around 30%, underscoring its role as an economic stabilizer [1] Group 2: Export and Trade - The national tax authorities processed export tax rebates that increased by 6.8% year-on-year, demonstrating the resilience of Chinese enterprises in maintaining good growth amid complex international trade conditions [1] Group 3: Energy Sector - In the first 11 months, sales revenue in the clean energy generation sectors, including wind, solar, and hydropower, rose by 14.9%, accounting for 38% of total electricity industry sales revenue, an increase of 4.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - Sales revenue from wind power and solar power generation increased by 16.8% and 35.7% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a rapid advancement in the green transition of China's energy structure [1] Group 4: Policy Impact - In the first 10 months, the current major policies supporting technological innovation and manufacturing resulted in tax reductions and rebates totaling 23.725 billion yuan, driving rapid growth in innovative industries [1]

袁海霞建议，2026年中国财政赤字率提至4.5%-5%，货币延续宽松，以提振消费扩内需，优化债务管 理，深化改革并扩大制度型开放，推动经济稳步修复。 在年会期间，中诚信与海尔鑫海汇启动绿色产融数科生态合作，共同发布"绿E供应链票据通"，旨在响 应国家绿色金融政策导向，尤其在绿色供应链金融领域实现重要突破。 根据2025年最新政策，绿色贸易首次被纳入绿色金融支持范围，为绿色票据在贸易场景中的应用提供直 接政策依据。与此同时，票据信息标注与共享机制还能有效破解银企信息不对称问题，推动绿色票据实 现"可识别、可追溯、可享优惠"，有力支持绿色低碳转型与产业升级。双方将依托各自在ESG评估与产 融科技方面的核心能力，共建绿色金融基础设施，助力实体经济绿色可持续发展。（记者 陈植） 经济观察网 12月4日，中诚信国际举行"智驭风险·信立新篇——中诚信2026年信用风险展望年会"。 中诚信国际总裁岳志岗在年会期间表示，当前全球格局深度调整，新一轮科技革命与产业变革为我国带 来新机遇，国内经济虽处结构调整关键期、存在有效需求不足等问题，但经济结构优化、新旧动能转换 推进、科技创新驱动增强，为"十五五"高质量发展创造条件。 中 ...

Group 1 - The central bank maintains a supportive stance on liquidity, with a low probability of interest rate cuts in the short term, leading to slight fluctuations in the bond market [1][6] - The bond market is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations as it enters a "data vacuum" period in late November [1][8] Group 2 - The central bank conducted a 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on November 17, indicating a continued injection of medium-term liquidity into the market [3] - The total amount of reverse repos for both 6-month and 3-month terms in November is expected to increase by 500 billion yuan, reflecting a consistent effort to maintain liquidity [3] Group 3 - In October, new social financing amounted to 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan, while the stock of social financing growth rate fell to 8.5% [4] - Direct financing showed signs of recovery, with corporate bond financing increasing by 246.9 billion yuan and stock financing rising by 69.6 billion yuan, indicating a growing demand for capital market financing from non-financial enterprises [4] Group 4 - In October, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises grew by 4.9%, driven by the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [5] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, but investment in high-tech industries, such as information services, increased by 32.7% [5] Group 5 - The necessity for short-term interest rate cuts is low, as the central bank emphasizes maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions while addressing weak financing demand [6] - Experts warn that while there is still some room for monetary policy, excessive easing could lead to negative effects, suggesting a cautious approach [6]

Core Viewpoint - Small and micro enterprises can enjoy tax benefits unless they operate in industries that are restricted or prohibited by the state [3][5][7]. Group 1: Industry Classification - The classification of industries can be referenced from two main documents: the "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalog (2024 Edition)" and the "Foreign Investment Industry Guidance Catalog (2017 Revision)" [4][6]. - The "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalog" categorizes industries into encouraged, restricted, and eliminated categories, with restricted and eliminated industries being ineligible for tax benefits [5]. Group 2: Reasons for Restrictions - Industries that are restricted often involve outdated technology and do not meet industry entry conditions, such as old chemical production processes and outdated mining techniques [5]. - Eliminated industries are those that violate laws and regulations, waste resources, pollute the environment, and pose serious safety risks [5]. - The state restricts these industries to guide industrial upgrades and optimize economic structure, thus differentiating tax benefits [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing increased divergence among fund managers, with some benefiting from the technology sector while others express anxiety over missed opportunities. This divergence is reflected in the performance of funds and their operational strategies [1][4][5]. Market Overview - The A-share market has shown slight fluctuations near the 4000-point mark, intensifying the competition over key market directions [2][3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassed the 4000-point threshold for the first time in a decade, yet the market enthusiasm remains unfulfilled, with trading volumes hovering around 2 trillion yuan [4]. Fund Manager Sentiment - Fund managers exhibit varied perspectives on the current market situation, with some expressing caution about a potential market pause while others remain optimistic about long-term growth [5][6]. - A significant portion of actively managed equity funds reduced their stock positions despite the rising market, indicating a cautious stance among institutional investors [4]. Technology Sector Discrepancies - There is a notable divide among fund managers regarding the technology sector, with some maintaining a bullish outlook while others express concerns over high valuations and potential risks [7][8]. - Fund managers have significantly increased their holdings in semiconductor, consumer electronics, and communication equipment sectors, with the electronics industry becoming the first to exceed 25% in active equity fund holdings [7]. Performance Disparities - The performance of fund managers is highly polarized, with some funds doubling their performance over the past year while others remain in the red [10][11]. - The investment strategies adopted by fund managers play a crucial role in their performance, with those favoring growth investments in emerging industries achieving better results compared to those adhering to traditional value investment principles [10]. Future Market Outlook - Expectations for future market movements are mixed, with some analysts predicting continued liquidity while others caution about potential volatility due to changes in high-risk funding sources [12]. - The technology sector is viewed as a key driver for market growth, with recommendations to focus on sectors benefiting from national strategies and performance elasticity [12].