证券研究报告 | 2026年02月07日 宏观经济周报 开局遇冷，二月迎暖 2026 年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，其首季经济表现备受瞩目。从 1 月 数据看，经济呈现显著的结构性分化特征。一方面，战略性新兴产业采购经 理指数（EPMI）环比升幅与 2024 年同期基本持平（考虑到春节时点相近）， 开局势头总体稳健，其中采购量、进口及就业等分项表现较好。另一方面， 制造业 PMI 环比回落，走势明显弱于 2024 年同期，尤其在生产、新订单等 关键需求指标上表现偏弱。这一"新兴产业强于整体制造业"的格局，延续 并强化了经济结构优化的长期趋势。1 月价格端也呈现积极信号，出厂价格 与原材料购进价格表现强劲，显示"反内卷"政策在促进工业品价格企稳回 升方面成效进一步显现。整体来看，1 月经济在结构上延续优化，但总量层 面未能延续去年 12 月的扩张势头，复苏进程出现阶段性波折。 积极信号在 2 月首周开始显现，各领域经济活动出现广泛改善，内需与外贸 短期动能均表现强劲。首先，生产端景气度明显回升，基建、机电及纺织等 领域生产活动普遍走强。其次，消费端受节前备货、出行增加拉动，市内客 流与物流投递量同比显著增长， ...

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year, achieving the target of around 5%[1] - The GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 fell to 4.5%, marking a new low in recent years[1] - Monthly GDP growth rates for October to December were approximately 4.5%, 4.3%, and 4.7% respectively, indicating signs of recovery in December[1] Structural Changes - A notable shift occurred in the economic structure: the secondary industry (industrial and construction sectors) saw a decline, while the tertiary industry (services) experienced growth[1] - The acceleration of the service sector is expected to create more jobs and increase income, providing sustainable support for domestic demand[1] Policy Outlook for 2026 - The newly announced fiscal and financial policies focus on stimulating private investment, with four out of six specific policies aimed at supporting private investment[2] - The emphasis on private investment over government-led infrastructure projects signals a shift towards "investing in people" rather than "investing in things"[2] Risks and Challenges - The report highlights potential risks from overseas market volatility, which could introduce uncertainties into the economic outlook[2] - Domestic consumption remains weak, with significant declines in key indicators such as movie ticket sales (down 26.9%) and automobile sales (down 32.0%) compared to the previous year[21] Trade and External Factors - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.23% year-on-year, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival[24] - Geopolitical risks are rising, potentially affecting global trade dynamics and pricing systems[25]

Core Viewpoint - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 met expectations at 4.5%, despite high base pressure, indicating successful completion of annual targets. The contribution of net exports to the economy increased, while consumption and investment saw a slight decline [4][6]. Group 1: Economic Data Summary - Q4 GDP growth was 4.5%, matching expectations but down from 4.8% in the previous period [6]. - December industrial added value grew by 5.2%, exceeding the expected 4.9% and up from 4.8% previously [6]. - Fixed asset investment for the entire year decreased by 3.8%, worse than the expected decline of 2.4% and the previous decline of 2.6% [6]. - December retail sales growth was 0.9%, below the expected 1.5% and the previous 1.3% [6]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - For Q1 2026, several factors such as proactive investment policies, major project launches, and strong performance in exports and infrastructure are expected to lead to a rebound in economic data, anticipating a strong start to the year [4].

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140.19 trillion yuan, marking a 5% increase year-on-year, successfully achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [2][3] - The quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4, indicating a gradual decline in growth momentum towards the end of the year [2][3] Economic Structure and Performance - The industrial added value in 2025 was 41.7 trillion yuan, growing by 5.8%, while the service sector's added value reached 80.89 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.4% and accounting for 57.7% of GDP [3] - High-tech industries maintained rapid growth, with the added value of high-tech manufacturing accounting for 17.1% of industrial added value [5] Trade and Investment - Total goods trade reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase, with exports at 26.99 trillion yuan (up 6.1%) and imports at 18.48 trillion yuan (up 0.5%) [3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 48.52 trillion yuan, down 3.8%, with a notable decline in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments [3][4] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 50.12 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7%, indicating a need for improved consumer sentiment despite a slight increase from the previous year [3][4] - Service retail sales grew by 5.5%, outpacing goods retail sales, reflecting a shift towards service consumption [6] Policy Measures and Future Outlook - In response to economic pressures, the government plans to implement proactive macroeconomic policies in 2026, focusing on boosting consumption and stabilizing investment [7][8] - The central bank has introduced measures to lower financing costs and enhance credit support for key sectors, aiming to stimulate economic growth [7][8] - The emphasis will be on expanding domestic demand and addressing local fiscal challenges to ensure a balanced economic recovery [9]

Economic Overview - In Q4 2025, GDP growth rate was 4.5%, meeting expectations and achieving an annual growth rate of 5.0%[3] - Q4 GDP growth rate increased slightly from 1.1% in Q3 to 1.2%[3] - Net exports contributed 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth, while consumption and investment contributed 2.4 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively[6] Consumption Trends - December retail sales growth was 0.9%, below the expected 1.5% and November's 1.3%[10] - The decline in retail sales growth was influenced by high base effects and diminishing returns from the "trade-in" policy[10] - December saw a significant drop in automotive consumption growth from -8.3% in November to -5.0%[11] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment for the year decreased by 3.8%, worse than the expected decline of 2.4%[4] - In December, manufacturing investment fell sharply to -9.4%, while real estate investment plummeted to -36.8%[20] - Equipment investment increased by 11.8%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[24] Trade Performance - Export growth rate fell from 6.5% in Q3 to 3.8% in Q4, influenced by a high base from 2024[5] - December exports remained resilient, indicating potential strength in Q1 2026[5] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment dropped to -36.8% in December, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector[30] - The sales volume of commercial housing showed signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in December compared to previous months[28] Infrastructure Investment - Both narrow and broad infrastructure investment saw increased declines, with broad infrastructure down 15.2% in December[25] - The decline in infrastructure investment is attributed to lower PPI and cautious spending amid local government debt issues[25] Future Outlook - Anticipated economic rebound in Q1 2026 due to preemptive investment policies and strong indicators in exports and infrastructure[2] - The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing investment to support economic recovery in 2026[26] Risks - Potential risks include significant downturns in the global economy and domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations[32]

Core Insights - China's total electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time in 2025, marking a significant milestone in energy consumption growth [1][2] - The growth in electricity consumption reflects a shift towards high-end manufacturing and digital economy, indicating a structural transformation in the economy [5][6][7] Group 1: Electricity Consumption Data - In 2025, total electricity consumption is expected to reach 10,368.2 billion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [1] - The breakdown of electricity consumption shows that the primary industry consumed 149.4 billion kilowatt-hours (up 9.9%), the secondary industry 6,636.6 billion kilowatt-hours (up 3.7%), and the tertiary industry 1,994.2 billion kilowatt-hours (up 8.2%) [1] - The contribution of the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential electricity consumption to the overall growth is 50% [1] Group 2: Global Comparison - China has become the first country to surpass 10 trillion kilowatt-hours in annual electricity consumption, which is more than double that of the United States and exceeds the combined consumption of the EU, Russia, India, and Japan [2] - The electricity consumption has doubled from 5 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2015 to 10 trillion in 2025, showcasing unprecedented growth among major economies [2] Group 3: Energy Supply and Infrastructure - By 2025, China aims to establish a clean and low-carbon power generation system, with non-fossil energy sources accounting for over 60% of total installed capacity [3] - The installed capacity of wind and solar power reached 1.76 billion kilowatts by November 2025, a 34% increase from the previous year [3] - The construction of four ultra-high voltage transmission corridors has been completed, enhancing the cross-regional transmission capacity to 370 million kilowatts [3] Group 4: Energy Storage Development - By the end of 2025, China's pumped storage capacity is expected to exceed 66 million kilowatts, maintaining its position as the world leader for ten consecutive years [4] - The installed capacity of new energy storage has surpassed 10 million kilowatts, growing over 30 times compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [4] Group 5: Economic Transformation Reflected in Electricity Usage - The second industry, accounting for approximately 64% of total electricity consumption, is shifting from high-energy-consuming sectors to high-end manufacturing [6] - In Jiangsu, the electricity consumption of the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sectors has surpassed 50 billion kilowatt-hours, overtaking traditional industries [6] - The growth in electricity consumption in the tertiary sector, particularly in electric vehicle charging services, has surged nearly 50%, reflecting a consumer shift towards green transportation [7]

Policy Overview - The central bank's structural monetary policy focuses on "interest rate cuts and expansion" targeting agriculture, small enterprises, private businesses, and technological innovation, without implementing total "reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts or interest rate reductions" for now[4] - The recent policy shift indicates a transition from "leading the market curve" to "synchronizing with the market," reflecting a more precise and coordinated monetary approach[4] Monetary Policy Details - The central bank lowered the re-lending and re-discount rates by 25 basis points (BP), with the one-year re-lending rate now at 1.25%[4] - An additional 500 billion yuan in re-lending for agriculture and small enterprises has been allocated, with a 1 trillion yuan re-lending specifically for private enterprises[4] - The re-lending quota for technological innovation and transformation has been increased by 400 billion yuan, and a combined risk-sharing tool for technological innovation and private enterprise bonds has been established with a total re-lending quota of 200 billion yuan[4] Economic Context - Since the implementation of previous policies, domestic inflation has shown a mild recovery, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) declining by 1.9%[5] - Exports achieved a year-on-year growth of 5.5% in 2025 despite external challenges, indicating sustained competitiveness[5] - The Hang Seng Index led global markets, while the Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,100 points on January 15, 2026, highlighting improved market confidence[5] Future Outlook - The central bank emphasizes that the space for RRR cuts is greater than for interest rate reductions, with an increased focus on government bond operations to manage liquidity[6] - The absence of specific policies for the real estate market suggests that future support will likely rely more on fiscal measures rather than monetary policy, such as interest subsidies and reduced transaction costs[7] - Overall, the structural monetary policy reflects a balance between stabilizing growth, mitigating risks, and promoting transformation amid ongoing economic challenges[7]

Group 1 - The market is shifting from short-term valuation fluctuations to a focus on solid fundamentals, indicating a significant transition towards a new era driven by innovation and change [1] - By 2035, the goal is to achieve a per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries, marking a shift from mere economic growth to a qualitative leap in development paradigms [1] - Technological and industrial innovation are essential pathways to achieving future goals, highlighting the importance of a robust foundation for growth [1] Group 2 - Global order is being restructured, with China's manufacturing resilience and foresight emerging as key strengths amid major power competition and supply chain adjustments [2] - The strategy of "self-control" and "going global" has evolved into a balanced approach, reinforcing China's position as a core growth engine and innovation hub [2] - A historical wealth migration is occurring, with a shift from real estate investments to capital markets, which are seen as the most expansive harbor for innovation and future value [2] Group 3 - The greatest risks often stem from cognitive stagnation during significant transitions, emphasizing the need for insight and discipline in investment strategies [3] - Recognizing the historical context and establishing faith in long-term trends are more valuable than chasing short-term market fluctuations [3] - The essence of investment remains unchanged: identifying order amidst chaos and maintaining value during volatility [3]

Economic Growth - In November, the domestic GDP growth rate was approximately 4.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from October, continuing the trend of moderation[1] - To achieve the annual growth target of around 5%, the GDP growth in December needs to rebound to above 5.0%, which is unlikely given the current policy focus on quality improvement rather than short-term growth[1] - The expected GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is about 4.3%, further declining from Q3, with an annual growth estimate of approximately 4.9%, remaining within the target range[1] Sector Performance - The main drag on economic growth in November came from the service sector, with the service production index's year-on-year growth rate falling by 0.4 percentage points[2] - The financial sector saw a year-on-year decline of 0.5 percentage points, while the real estate sector's investment and sales figures also worsened, contributing to the pressure on services[2] - Emerging sectors like leasing and business services showed resilience, with growth accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] Consumption and Trade - Consumer activity showed signs of weakening, with logistics delivery volume experiencing its first negative year-on-year growth of -1.3% this year[12] - The average daily box office for movies was approximately 100.4 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186%, driven by the release of popular films[18] - Export container freight rates slightly increased to 1124.73, indicating stable shipping supply and demand relationships[22] Real Estate Market - The price decline in the real estate market continued to expand, with the price index for 70 large and medium-sized cities showing increased year-on-year declines for both new and second-hand homes[48] - Despite seasonal increases in transaction volumes, the absolute levels remain low, marking the worst performance for the same period in recent years[48] - The inventory turnover pressure remains significant, with the sales-to-inventory ratio recorded at 89.1, the highest for the same period since 2019[48]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the overall operation of the bulk commodity market in China is stable, with significant characteristics of new and old kinetic energy conversion [1] Group 1: Price Index Forecast - The average price index for bulk commodities in China is expected to be 112.1 points in 2025, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous year [2] - Among the 50 bulk commodities monitored, 10 are expected to see price increases, with neodymium oxide, refined tin, and corrugated paper projected to rise by 43.4%, 20.6%, and 18.5% respectively [2] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to see a 4.2% increase compared to 2024, driven by the rapid growth of high-tech manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing in sectors such as new energy, photovoltaics, and wind power [3] - The average price index for agricultural products is projected to be 96.7 points, reflecting a 0.4% decrease from the previous year, with stable supply and demand for key agricultural products [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the overall trend of the bulk commodity index will show a pattern of low at the beginning and high at the end, indicating a stabilization and recovery, which reflects a healthier and more sustainable optimization of China's economic structure [4] - The strong resilience and significant domestic demand potential of the Chinese economy are expected to remain the solid foundation for the bulk commodity market in 2026 [4]