文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 美股涨幅不大，略微上涨。 不过全球除美股外股票市场大幅上涨，超2%。 其中， 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 1. 本周全球股票市场整体上涨。 欧洲法股、德股上涨普遍超过2%。 亚太地区也大多数上涨。 港股恒生指数，本周上涨3.88%。 港股恒生科技指数，上涨幅度更大，达到6.9%，创下最近半年最大单周上涨幅度，领涨全球。 韩股、新加坡等市场也上涨较多。 在A股放假的这几天，全球股票市场都上涨不少。 如果下周一到周三，海外市场不回调，那A股开盘可能也会继续上冲。 等假期最后一天，螺丝钉也会汇总下海外市场，以及海外对应A股的品种的涨跌幅。 2. 本周全球市场上涨，特别是非美元市场上涨较多，也跟美股最近公布的就业数据有关。 本周美股公布9月就业数据，减少3.2万人，比市场预期的增加5万人差值较大。 就业数据不及预期，这对投资有什么影响呢？ （1）就业数据不及预期，市场会认为有可能出现衰退或低迷的迹象。 不过仅仅是一两次的数据不及预期，不一定100%进入衰退周期。 后面更重要的数据 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 1. 本周全球股票市场整体微跌。 美股、全球股票指数，下跌0.4-0.5%，波动不大。 A股这周比较坚挺，本周沪深300上涨1%，领涨全球。 主动优选等组合这周也整体上涨。 欧洲、亚太地区股票市场普遍下跌。 韩国、印度等市场波动比较大，印度市场下跌2.6%。 2. 本周后半段，全球股票市场波动变大。 也跟特朗普重提关税有关。 从10月1日，会对厨房橱柜、浴室、建材等征收50%关税； 对进口家具征收30%关税；对专利和品牌药品加征100%关税。 引发市场短期担心。 一些出口占比比较高的市场，也出现波动。 印度等市场波动大也于此有关。 周五的时候，港股创新药也出现波动。 不过港股创新药，前段时间涨到过高估，最近回调后，暂时还在正常偏高估值，还不太便宜。 当时A股港股也出现波动，一度回到5点几星。 也是今年A股港股年内的低点。 不过随后的5-8月，全球股票市场上涨，早已修复了4月份的跌幅。 A股港股更是领涨全球。 4. 那提高关税，对市场是短期影响还 ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 美降息如何影响中国资产？ >>点击图片查看全文<< 我们梳理了美联储降息影响中国资产的逻辑，主要分为三个方面：1）美联储降息一定程度或有助于缓解我国货币政策外部掣肘。2）美 国降息可能带来弱势美元。3）美联储降息往往伴随全球资金再配置。中金策略团队在近期发布的《 牛市成因之辩——国际货币体系变 迁视角 》认为，美元贬值和创新叙事反转相结合，两者反映的全球货币秩序重构可能是本轮市场行情的核心驱动力，新货币秩序下人 民币资产相对受益；如果政策应对得当，人民币资产有望受益于全球货币体系加速碎片化、多元化的双重红利——碎片化加速中国在海 外的资金回流，多元化驱动全球资金再平衡，或有部分资金流向中国资本市场。美联储重启降息或将促进全球资金流动性释放、对美元 汇率形成一定下行压力，从而有望进一步推动全球资金再配置。 2025.9.14 | 李求索 张歆瑜等 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 股市配置的空间 >>点击图片查看全文<< 我们之前的研究指出，金融周期调整导致资产配置大幅变化，ROE改善之前股市会经历一个再配置带来的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the performance of various markets, highlighting investment opportunities and trends in the context of recent economic data and market movements [2][5][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced a significant rebound, with indices rising over 2% [10]. - The global stock index rating returned to 3.0 stars, indicating a moderate investment attractiveness [11]. - European and Asia-Pacific markets showed higher growth rates compared to the U.S. stock market, which had a slightly lower increase [12][13]. - Both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks continued their strong performance this year [14]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Interest Rates - Recent U.S. economic data fell short of expectations, increasing the likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [15]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remains around 4.2-4.3%, creating significant interest payment pressures due to the large scale of U.S. debt [15]. - A decline in U.S. interest rates is expected to positively impact global asset prices, as seen during the last bull market in Hong Kong from 2020 to 2021 [17][18]. Group 3: Valuation Trends - Since the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in September last year, global stock markets have risen approximately 19.4%, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks outperforming with over 40% gains [19][20]. - Despite the recent increases, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks still have lower average valuations compared to global markets [22][23]. - The current price-to-book ratio for A-shares is 1.7, while the average for global markets (excluding U.S. stocks) is around 2.08, indicating a 22% difference [24][25]. - The valuation gap has narrowed from over 50% last year, which was the largest disparity in the past decade [27]. Group 4: Investment Products and Strategies - There is a lack of investment options for overseas markets in mainland China, but a variety of products are available abroad [3][4]. - The company has created a global stock index valuation table and will update it weekly [6][7]. - A global index advisory portfolio has been launched, diversifying investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices [35]. - Current investment limits for overseas market funds in mainland China are generally around 100 yuan, with a maximum daily purchase limit of 350 yuan [37]. Group 5: Book Promotion - The new edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide" has been released, achieving high sales rankings on major platforms [40]. - The book emphasizes that stocks are the best long-term investment vehicle and provides insights into asset class returns over the past two centuries [41].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the potential investment opportunities in overseas markets, particularly focusing on the performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the context of recent economic trends and interest rate changes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The global stock market experienced a slight decline of 0.42% this week, with the global stock index rating returning to around 3.1 stars [5][6]. - Most global stock markets saw a downturn, while Chinese assets remained relatively strong, with the A-share CSI All Share Index rising by 1.54% and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.93%, ranking among the top performers globally [7]. Group 2: Historical Context and Valuation - Since the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in September last year, the global stock index has risen approximately 17%, with Chinese assets performing even better: A-shares up over 35% and the Hang Seng Index up 42% [9][10]. - The decline in U.S. dollar interest rates has positively impacted asset valuations, similar to the previous bull market in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks from 2019 to 2021 [11]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were previously undervalued, with ratings dropping to as low as 5.9 stars, which was 50% below the global average valuation, leading to significant valuation recovery and price increases [12][13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article raises questions about the continued upward potential of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, emphasizing that index funds' performance is influenced by valuation, earnings, and dividends [14][15]. - The valuation for Hong Kong stocks has returned to a range of 4.1-4.5 stars, while A-shares have increased from the previous 5.x stars to around 4.8 stars [17][18]. - Although there are still some undervalued stocks, the number has decreased as prices have risen [19]. - Earnings growth from listed companies is expected to contribute to future returns, with signs of stabilization and recovery in earnings observed in early 2024 [22][24]. Group 4: Investment Products - The article mentions the availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets, which total over a trillion dollars, but notes the lack of such funds in mainland China [27]. - The company has introduced a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-shares to track global stock market performance [29]. - There are limitations on the purchase amounts for overseas investment funds, with a maximum daily purchase of 350 yuan [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the performance of various markets, highlighting the recent recovery in global stock markets and the implications for investment strategies. Group 1: Global Stock Market Performance - The global stock market index has returned to 3.3 stars, recovering losses from the tariff crisis in early April and surpassing the beginning of the year levels. However, due to earnings updates, the valuation has decreased compared to the end of last year [1]. - The S&P 500 index in the U.S. rose by 1.5% this week, while non-U.S. global markets increased by 1.6%. The Hong Kong stock market led the gains with the Hang Seng Index up by 2.16% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 2.2% [1][2]. - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to a recovery in earnings, with a year-on-year growth of 16% in the first quarter, leading to a dual effect of valuation and earnings improvement [1][3]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - Concerns regarding the impact of U.S. delistings of Chinese concept stocks on index funds are addressed, indicating that past delistings have not significantly affected the performance of these stocks when traded on the Hong Kong market [3][4]. - The article emphasizes that the long-term performance of stocks is ultimately driven by earnings, regardless of the market in which they are listed [2][5]. - The availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets is noted, with a suggestion that domestic investors can simulate similar effects through advisory combinations [9][10]. Group 3: Valuation Tables - A detailed valuation table for various indices is provided, including metrics such as price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, price-to-book (P/B) ratios, dividend yields, and return on equity (ROE) for indices like the Russell 2000 Value and S&P 500 [19][21]. - The table categorizes indices based on their valuation status, with green indicating undervalued, yellow for normal, and red for overvalued, aiding investors in making informed decisions [21][22].

Group 1 - The global stock market indices experienced slight fluctuations, returning to a rating of 3.5 stars this week [3] - The US stock index saw a slight increase, while non-US markets experienced a minor decline [4][5] - The Hong Kong stock market ended a six-week upward trend with a slight decrease this week [6] Group 2 - The global stock market initially rose in the first half of the week but faced a pullback towards the end, primarily due to Trump's tariff policies [7] - A US federal court temporarily blocked the implementation of Trump's tariff policy from April 2, but the Trump administration appealed, leading to a temporary restoration of the tariff increase [8][9] Group 3 - Tariffs are a double-edged sword for the US dollar; higher tariffs may hinder the reduction of dollar inflation, which could slow down the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [10] - The significant dollar debt and high interest expenses put pressure on the dollar [11] - The actual implementation of high tariffs has been limited, serving more as a negotiation tool than a final goal [12][13] Group 4 - A decrease in US dollar interest rates would benefit non-dollar assets; since the Fed's first rate cut in September last year, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have outperformed the global average [14] - The Hang Seng Index has risen by 16% this year, leading the global stock market [15] - If the tariff crisis subsides and US dollar rates continue to decline, it would be advantageous for both Hong Kong and A-shares [16] Group 5 - The recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market has improved, with many investment options showing more gains than losses compared to previous years [17] - In the past few years, the decline in Hong Kong stock profits was more significant than that of A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 54% from 2021 to 2022, while A-shares fell by 30-40% [18] - The first quarter of this year saw a 16% year-on-year profit growth for the Hang Seng Index, indicating a recovery [20] Group 6 - The index points can be calculated as valuation multiplied by earnings plus dividends [22] - Good profit growth leads to quicker rebounds from market fluctuations, creating a perception of a more favorable investment environment [23] - A-shares are expected to experience a similar fundamental improvement in the future, leading to potential upward movements [24] Group 7 - A global stock market star rating chart indicates that the market was undervalued at 4-5 stars during previous low phases in 2018, 2020, and 2022 [28] - After a significant drop in early April, the global stock market rebounded to a rating of 3.5 stars [29] Group 8 - There are global stock index funds available in overseas markets, with a total scale exceeding one trillion dollars, but such funds are currently limited in mainland China [31] - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across US, UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track the global stock market [32] Group 9 - The newly translated book "The Long-Term Investment Secret" has been released and topped sales charts, providing insights into long-term stock market investments [37] - The book emphasizes that stocks are the best long-term investment vehicle and suggests that households should allocate a portion of their assets to stocks [38]