Real Estate Industry - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, divided into three phases: housing transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment [3] - The core point for entering a positive cycle is the upward shift in housing price expectations due to changes in supply and demand structure, which should be a key signal for market observation [3] - Policy measures need to be more decisive to facilitate stabilization, focusing on adjusting supply and demand structures and mitigating risks from enterprises [3] - The probability of a "medium policy" scenario for the real estate fundamentals in 2025 is high, with sales performance potentially exceeding expectations due to the prolonged effects of the 926 policy [3] - A recovery in total housing sales to historically reasonable levels could lead to significant upward potential, with new housing transaction volumes likely to see greater recovery [3] Strategy - The A-share market has shown signs of improvement in early 2025, but external uncertainties are rising, impacting market dynamics [8] - The expected market rhythm for the second half of 2025 is "steady first, then rise," with upward potential dependent on comprehensive policy support [9] - Investment focus should be on certainty in uncertain environments, including opportunities from capacity cycles, high-growth sectors with low correlation to economic cycles, and dividend-paying sectors [9] Macroeconomy - The GDP growth rate has improved while prices remain weak, indicating a widening demand gap due to restrained policy measures [18] - The real estate sector's drag on the economy is expected to continue narrowing, contributing to a "quasi-balance" recovery [18] - The core CPI inflation is anticipated to improve slightly in the second half of the year, but overall inflation is expected to remain weak [18] New Consumption Trends - Despite overall consumption being insufficient, new consumption trends are emerging, characterized by a shift towards quality and rational spending [23] - The Z generation is becoming a key driver of the new consumption wave, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [23] - The potential for consumption in lower-tier cities is increasing as the drag from real estate weakens [23]

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 房地产 Industry 2025下半年展望 | 房地产：信心、耐心与决心 我们认为房地产市场"止跌回稳"是一个循序渐进的过程，可大体分为三个阶段，分别对应"住房交易量"、"房价"、"房地产投资"三类指标的企稳回 升；其中，步入正循环的核心点是供需结构改变带来的房价预期向上，或应成为市场耐心跟踪关注的关键转折信号。政策端促成"止跌回稳"仍需更大 决心，推进实体市场供需结构调整的措施落地和防范化解企业端衍生风险的措施补充是短期关键。我们此前在2025年度策略《 房地产：迈向止跌回 稳 》中提出三种政策强度情景；考虑到年初以来政策进展和市场表现、房地产政策约束条件的突破仍须时间、市场供需结构较历史上景气周期仍有 差距，我们认为对于房地产基本面磨底期的持续时长做充分估计，2025年演绎"中政策"情景的概率较大，其中仅销量表现由于926政策效果持续时长 超预期或略好于"中政策"情景。而一旦供需结构调整带动价格预期转为积极，我们认为总住房销量修复至历史合理水平对应的上行空间十分可观， 一、二手房占比结构的再平衡也意味着新房交易量的修复空间可能更大，届 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the phenomenon of improving GDP growth alongside weak inflation, attributing this to financial cycle adjustments and restrained policy measures, leading to a widening demand gap that suppresses inflation growth [1][2][3]. Economic Performance - Over the past two quarters, GDP year-on-year growth has reached 5.4%, while inflation remains weak, with CPI growth close to zero due to the drag from food prices, particularly pork [2][12]. - The core CPI inflation is lower than previous predictions, indicating a persistent divergence between economic growth and inflation [2][12]. Labor Market Dynamics - Economic structure optimization and technological advancements have led to a decrease in labor intensity, with labor demand slowing down. By 2024, labor intensity in China's secondary and tertiary industries is expected to be around 70-80 compared to 2018 levels [3][29]. - The overall unemployment rate remains stable, but income growth has slowed, indicating a shift towards a "quasi-equilibrium" state in the labor market [3][51]. Future Economic Outlook - The "quasi-equilibrium" growth is expected to continue in the second half of the year, with GDP year-on-year growth projected at approximately 5.0% for the year [4][56]. - CPI inflation is anticipated to remain low, with core inflation showing slight improvement but still expected to be in a negative range for the year [4][60]. Structural Changes - The financial cycle is transitioning, with a gradual reduction in the negative impact of real estate on the economy. The contribution of real estate to GDP growth turned negative in the second half of 2021, but this drag is diminishing [8][12]. - The shift towards new economic models, including high-end manufacturing, is increasing production efficiency and altering the labor market dynamics [16][22]. Consumption and Investment Trends - Consumer spending is expected to stabilize, with the "old-for-new" policy contributing to retail sales growth, although its impact may weaken in the fourth quarter due to base effects [45][54]. - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow by around 4.0% for the year, with manufacturing investment expected to increase by 8.0% [55][56]. Trade and Export Dynamics - Exports are facing challenges from tariffs but are expected to show resilience, with a projected year-on-year growth of around 4.0% [56][57]. - The import growth is anticipated to be structurally weak, with a potential year-on-year growth close to zero [56][57].