Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory last week. The inventory decline of rebar expanded, and the fundamentals continued to improve. The inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing, and the pressure of inventory accumulation eased. Overall, the inventory pressure of finished steel products was limited, and the price tended to fluctuate within a range. The spot market was stronger than the futures market, and the basis of rebar widened. In the short term, as the overseas interest rate cut expectation rebounds, the market risk appetite increases, and the price forms a certain support at a low level. At the same time, the market expectation of real estate stabilization policies has increased, but the specific situation remains to be observed. The short-term steel price trend is relatively firm and operates in a range [3][9]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Last week, the five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The inventory decline of rebar expanded, and the fundamentals continued to improve. The inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing, and the pressure of inventory accumulation eased. Overall, the inventory pressure of finished steel products was limited, and the price tended to fluctuate within a range. The spot market was stronger than the futures market, and the basis of rebar widened [9]. - The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major cities showed an upward trend, and the prices of imported iron ore also increased slightly. The prices of coking coal decreased, while the prices of coke remained stable. In terms of futures contracts, the prices of some contracts increased, while others decreased. The positions of long and short sides in some contracts decreased. The basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils showed different changes. The inventory of rebar decreased, while the inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing [9][10]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased slightly. The weekly production of rebar blast furnaces was 207.96 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 3.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.06%), and the weekly production of national hot-rolled coils was 316.01 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 0.75% and a year-on-year increase of 1.33%). The blast furnace production of rebar increased, while the electric furnace production decreased [13][16][17]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate decreased, while the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 82.19% (a week-on-week decrease of 0.75% and a year-on-year increase of 0.13%), and the electric furnace operating rate was 69.13% (a week-on-week increase of 1.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.93%) [23][27]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils both weakened on a week-on-week basis. The profit of rebar was -30 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 1 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 94 yuan/ton), and the profit of hot-rolled coils was -57 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 16 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 121 yuan/ton) [28][31]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased slightly. The apparent consumption of rebar was 230.79 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 6.66% and a year-on-year increase of 2.41%), and the apparent consumption of hot-rolled coils was 324.42 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 3.45% and a year-on-year increase of 1.73%) [32][36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased, with both factory and social inventories showing a decline. The total inventory of rebar was 553.34 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 3.96% and a year-on-year increase of 24.32%). The inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing, with the social inventory decreasing and the factory inventory remaining stable. The total inventory of hot-rolled coils was 402.11 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.05% and a year-on-year increase of 27.56%) [37][40][41]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land both improved on a week-on-week basis. In the automotive market, the production and sales of automobiles in October continued to increase both on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, setting a new high for the same period in history [46][49][51]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the arrival volume at ports increased. The iron ore price index was 103.71 (a week-on-week increase of 0.62% and a year-on-year increase of 0.94%). The shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil were 2637.4 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 9.32% and a year-on-year increase of 3.52%), and the arrival volume at 45 iron ore ports was 2817.1 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 24.16% and a year-on-year increase of 22.63%) [54][58]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased on a week-on-week basis, while the port clearance volume increased slightly. The daily output of hot metal was 236.28 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.6 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 0.48 million tons), the port clearance volume of 45 iron ore ports was 329.92 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 0.91% and a year-on-year increase of 0.90%), and the inventory-to-sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.86 days (a week-on-week decrease of 0.52% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.56%) [59][63]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore decreased slightly, and the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises also decreased slightly. The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 15054.65 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.50% and a year-on-year increase of 0.05%), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9001.23 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.82% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.87%), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.65 days (a week-on-week decrease of 5.25% and a year-on-year increase of 4.05%) [64][69]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking coal mines increased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.94% (a week-on-week increase of 0.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.09%), and the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 18.82 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 5.45% and a year-on-year increase of 12.42%) [71][75]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased on a week-on-week basis. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was +37.3% (a week-on-week decrease of 35.52% and a year-on-year decrease of 45.64%), and the weekly transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 59% (a week-on-week decrease of 17.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.24%) [76][78]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of coking enterprises was repaired, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was +19 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 53 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 7 yuan/ton), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 71.71% (a week-on-week increase of 0.10% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%) [80][84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The port inventory of coking coal decreased on a week-on-week basis, and the inventory of coking plants also decreased. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 888.87 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 3.69% and a year-on-year increase of 18.02%), the coking coal inventory of steel plants was 797.30 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 0.88% and a year-on-year increase of 6.89%), and the port inventory of coking coal was 291.5 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.35% and a year-on-year decrease of 37.82%) [85][90]. - **Coke Inventory**: The port inventory of coke decreased, while the inventory of coking plants increased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 43.44 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 20.17% and a year-on-year increase of 7.87%), the coke inventory of steel plants was 622.34 million tons (remaining unchanged on a week-on-week basis and a year-on-year increase of 4.48%), and the port inventory of coke was 193 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.92% and a year-on-year increase of 8.93%) [91][96]. - **Spot Price**: After the fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, the price remained stable for the time being, and the game between steel mills and coking enterprises continued. The price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1660 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 40 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 80 yuan/ton), and the ex-factory price of quasi-first-class metallurgical coke was 1540 yuan/ton (in Handan, remaining stable on a week-on-week basis and a year-on-year decrease of 120 yuan/ton) [97][102]. 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar widened, and the 1-5 spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar widened slightly, and the 1-5 spreads of coking coal and coke continued to shrink [104][108].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View Last week, the black - series was affected by supply - side disturbance expectations and showed a volatile and slightly stronger performance. Currently in the off - season, the demand for finished products continued to weaken month - on - month. Although the inventory showed seasonal accumulation, the contradiction was not prominent. Starting from mid - August, northern regions strengthened production restrictions, supporting the steel price to remain firm. It is expected that the short - term RB01 contract will fluctuate between the valley - electricity cost (3241) and the flat - electricity cost (3369), and cautious operation is recommended. [5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Conclusion and Balance Sheet - **Steel Price and Inventory**: Last week, domestic steel spot prices rebounded slightly. As of August 7, the overall output of five major steel products increased by 1.79 tons, the factory inventory increased by 3.34 tons, and the social inventory increased by 20.113 tons. The apparent demand was 845.74 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.29 tons. [5] - **Profit**: As of August 8, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process production of rebar in East China was 3114 yuan, with a profit of about 196 yuan; the profit of long - process hot - rolled coil was about 236 yuan. For electric furnaces in East China, the flat - electricity cost was about 3369 yuan, and the valley - electricity cost was about 3241 yuan. The flat - electricity profit of rebar was about - 129 yuan, and the valley - electricity profit was about - 1 yuan. [5] - **Scrap Steel**: As of August 7, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2140 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 34.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 55.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 tons. The daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 49 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.6 tons, a decrease of 8.6%. The scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises totaled 465.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.6 tons, a decrease of 2.6%. [6] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Macro Data**: In the first half of 2025, enterprise (institution) loans increased by 11.57 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.5% of all new loans, 6.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The PMI in July was 49.3%. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in the first half of 2025 was 24.8654 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In June, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) increased by 1.95% year - on - year; manufacturing investment increased by 5.06%; real estate development investment decreased by 12.4%. [18][20][25] - **Steel Production and Inventory**: The output of five major steel products increased by 1.79 tons, and the inventory increased. The output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, the factory inventory increased by 6.05 tons, and the social inventory increased by 4.34 tons. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 7.9 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 1.42 tons, and the social inventory increased by 10.1 tons. [10] - **Supply (Long - Process)**: As of August 8, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 240.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39 tons. [45] - **Supply (Short - Process)**: As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of 89 electric arc furnace plants in China was 34.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3 percentage points. As of August 8, the pig iron - scrap steel price difference was - 45 yuan, an increase of 37 yuan. [48] - **Scrap Steel**: The daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills decreased, and the inventory decreased. [6] - **Building Materials Market**: The transaction volume of building materials and the cement mill start - up rate showed certain fluctuations. The national cement mill start - up load average was 35.71%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from last week. [73] - **Real Estate Market**: From January to June, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 20.0%, and the completed area decreased by 14.8%. [28] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Market**: The output of hot - rolled coil decreased, the apparent demand decreased, and the inventory increased. [81] - **Export Situation**: As of August 8, the FOB export price of China was 475 US dollars, an increase of 3 US dollars; the export profit was - 10.9 US dollars, a decrease of 5.8 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 264.44 tons, a decrease of 63.34 tons. [93]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a stable supply and slight adjustments in prices, with calls for self-discipline among companies to avoid excessive competition and maintain price stability [1][2]. Group 1: Market Data - As of July 29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a total of 85,034 tons of rebar warehouse receipts, an increase of 594 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting emphasizing the need for self-discipline in the industry, urging companies to adhere to the "three determinations and three non-requests" principle to control production and stabilize prices [1]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - On July 29, Shougang Changzhi adjusted its rebar prices, reducing the HRB400E rebar price by 30 yuan, with the ex-factory base price for Φ20mm set at 3,220 yuan/ton [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Guosen Futures noted that despite being in the off-season, steel mills are maintaining decent profits and high production levels, with a slight weekly increase in rebar output and stable overall steel supply [2]. - Ningzheng Futures reported that adverse weather conditions are impacting construction and transportation, leading to generally weak downstream demand, while high coal prices are providing some support for steel prices [3].