Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View Last week, the black - series was affected by supply - side disturbance expectations and showed a volatile and slightly stronger performance. Currently in the off - season, the demand for finished products continued to weaken month - on - month. Although the inventory showed seasonal accumulation, the contradiction was not prominent. Starting from mid - August, northern regions strengthened production restrictions, supporting the steel price to remain firm. It is expected that the short - term RB01 contract will fluctuate between the valley - electricity cost (3241) and the flat - electricity cost (3369), and cautious operation is recommended. [5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Conclusion and Balance Sheet - **Steel Price and Inventory**: Last week, domestic steel spot prices rebounded slightly. As of August 7, the overall output of five major steel products increased by 1.79 tons, the factory inventory increased by 3.34 tons, and the social inventory increased by 20.113 tons. The apparent demand was 845.74 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.29 tons. [5] - **Profit**: As of August 8, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process production of rebar in East China was 3114 yuan, with a profit of about 196 yuan; the profit of long - process hot - rolled coil was about 236 yuan. For electric furnaces in East China, the flat - electricity cost was about 3369 yuan, and the valley - electricity cost was about 3241 yuan. The flat - electricity profit of rebar was about - 129 yuan, and the valley - electricity profit was about - 1 yuan. [5] - **Scrap Steel**: As of August 7, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2140 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 34.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 55.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 tons. The daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 49 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.6 tons, a decrease of 8.6%. The scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises totaled 465.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.6 tons, a decrease of 2.6%. [6] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Macro Data**: In the first half of 2025, enterprise (institution) loans increased by 11.57 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.5% of all new loans, 6.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The PMI in July was 49.3%. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in the first half of 2025 was 24.8654 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In June, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) increased by 1.95% year - on - year; manufacturing investment increased by 5.06%; real estate development investment decreased by 12.4%. [18][20][25] - **Steel Production and Inventory**: The output of five major steel products increased by 1.79 tons, and the inventory increased. The output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, the factory inventory increased by 6.05 tons, and the social inventory increased by 4.34 tons. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 7.9 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 1.42 tons, and the social inventory increased by 10.1 tons. [10] - **Supply (Long - Process)**: As of August 8, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 240.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39 tons. [45] - **Supply (Short - Process)**: As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of 89 electric arc furnace plants in China was 34.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3 percentage points. As of August 8, the pig iron - scrap steel price difference was - 45 yuan, an increase of 37 yuan. [48] - **Scrap Steel**: The daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills decreased, and the inventory decreased. [6] - **Building Materials Market**: The transaction volume of building materials and the cement mill start - up rate showed certain fluctuations. The national cement mill start - up load average was 35.71%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from last week. [73] - **Real Estate Market**: From January to June, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 20.0%, and the completed area decreased by 14.8%. [28] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Market**: The output of hot - rolled coil decreased, the apparent demand decreased, and the inventory increased. [81] - **Export Situation**: As of August 8, the FOB export price of China was 475 US dollars, an increase of 3 US dollars; the export profit was - 10.9 US dollars, a decrease of 5.8 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 264.44 tons, a decrease of 63.34 tons. [93]