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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250715
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 01:40
Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to have a strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil plates will have wide - range oscillations due to the undiminished sector sentiment [2][7]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are slightly boosted by the settlement of steel tender prices [2][10]. - Coke will oscillate with an upward trend [2][13]. - Coking coal will oscillate with an upward trend affected by news disturbances [2][14]. - Steam coal will stabilize with oscillations as daily consumption recovers [2][18]. - Logs will have wide - range oscillations due to the change of the main contract [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Categories Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of iron ore (12509) closed at 766.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.33%). The import and domestic ore prices generally increased slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil Plate - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of HC2510 closed at 3,276 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot prices in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year - on - year. China's steel exports in June were 967.8 million tons, a decrease of 90.0 million tons from the previous month. The weekly data on July 10 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of hot - rolled coil plate is 0 [9]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon contracts increased. The spot prices and various spreads also showed different changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions were reported. A large steel group in Hebei increased the tender prices for silicon iron and silicon manganese in July and increased the procurement volume [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0 [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) increased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: The port prices of coking coal and the CCI metallurgical coal index were reported. The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in DCE were provided [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [16]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading on the previous day. The opening, high, low, and closing prices and trading volume and open interest were reported [19]. - **Fundamental Information**: The prices of imported steam coal at southern ports and domestic steam coal at production areas were provided. The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in ZCE were reported [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0 [21]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts (2509, 2511, 2601) showed different trends. The spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained stable [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US President Trump extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [24].
【硅铁】期货行情提振有限?硅铁行情为何跟涨乏力?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-22 08:48
最新:西南某钢厂最新硅铁招标价格敲定为6130/6140元/吨,相较上轮定价下调100元/吨,采购总量900吨;江苏某钢厂最新硅铁招标 启动,采购数量1550吨,后期最终定价情况本网站相关人员将会继续跟踪报道。 期货:震荡整理! (转自:合金现货网) 现货:暂稳运行!! 有明显波动,买卖双方僵持,整体暂呈观望态势。就本网站相关人员表示,今日硅铁75B主流报价仍在5600元/吨上下,整体报价相较 上一交易日变化不大。另,合金宝指数显示,截止上午九点,今日合金宝指数相较上一交易日暂稳运行,市场报价未有明显波动。其 中,河南、河北、山东、江苏等地硅铁75B现金含税包到价格在5755-6059元/吨之间,具体如下图所示: 综合来看 综合而言,短期硅铁行情或延续窄幅震荡,市场等待钢招定价指引,预计价格大幅调整的可能性不大。若招标价持平或小幅上移,可 能带动现货企稳;若招标价显著低于预期,则价格或再度承压。另,若供应收缩力度超预期或需求边际改善,市场或迎来阶段性反弹 机会,反之亦然。因此,综合各种情况分析,建议密切关注钢招定价、主产区减产执行情况及电价政策变动。且下周即将迎来五一小 长假,届时或迎来一波节前补库,但最终能 ...