Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China Baowu has raised steel prices for September due to easing order pressure and increased downstream restocking expectations as the off-season approaches its end [1][3] - Specific price increases include a rise of 200 CNY/ton for thick plates, hot-rolled products, non-oriented silicon steel, high aluminum zinc aluminum magnesium plates, aluminum zinc plates, and color-coated plates, and a rise of 300 CNY/ton for pickled products, cold-rolled products, hot-dip galvanized plates, electro-galvanized plates, and medium aluminum zinc aluminum magnesium plates compared to August [1] - The current market shows improved purchasing willingness among merchants, with steady downstream order growth and strong overseas industrial product consumption driving continued export order growth [1][2] Group 2 - The steel market is characterized by low inventories of finished products and raw materials in the manufacturing sector, with expectations for a stronger peak season [2] - Steel companies are maintaining profits, with flat steel gross margins expected to rise to 250-300 CNY/ton in August, while supply remains stable and steel inventories are low [2] - Export demand is expected to continue supporting the market, with July export data showing a year-on-year increase, particularly in industrial products, driven by international trade dynamics [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel market is expected to continue facing supply-demand imbalances, with prices likely to trend downward throughout 2025, despite some short-term technical rebounds [1][4][5] Supply Side: Policy-Driven Contraction and Global Divergence - From January to May 2025, China's crude steel production reached 43,171 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 441.4 million tons, or 1.01% [2] - The market anticipates a 1.5% year-on-year decline in crude steel production for the second half of the year, with total annual production expected to remain below 1 billion tons [2] - Global crude steel production shows structural divergence, with India's output increasing by 8.42% while Germany and Russia saw declines of 10.34% and 6.09%, respectively [2] Demand Side: Weak Real Estate Data, Slowing Infrastructure and Export Growth - From January to May 2025, China's apparent crude steel consumption was 37,842.45 million tons, down 1,585.91 million tons, or 4.02% year-on-year [3] - Real estate investment decreased by 10.7%, with new housing starts down 22.8%, negatively impacting demand for construction steel [3] - Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, and while steel exports increased by 8.2%, growth is expected to decelerate in the second half due to tariffs and anti-dumping investigations [3] Market Outlook: Continued Weakness in Supply and Demand - The steel market is projected to maintain a "dual decline" scenario, with supply constrained by crude steel reduction policies and demand showing only weak recovery [4] - The overall price trend for the year is likely to exhibit an "N" shape, with potential short-term rebounds in Q3 followed by challenges in Q4 due to seasonal demand drops and inventory pressures [5]

021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2024 年 5 月 23 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 数据来源：上期所网站，建信期货研究发展部 5 月 22 日，螺纹钢、热卷期货主力合约 2510 震荡运行；不锈钢期货主力合 约 2507 震荡运行。 表2：5月22日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） | 合约 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 多空 | 偏离度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 持仓 | 持仓 | 持仓变化 | 持仓变化 | ...