Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China Baowu has raised steel prices for September due to easing order pressure and increased downstream restocking expectations as the off-season approaches its end [1][3] - Specific price increases include a rise of 200 CNY/ton for thick plates, hot-rolled products, non-oriented silicon steel, high aluminum zinc aluminum magnesium plates, aluminum zinc plates, and color-coated plates, and a rise of 300 CNY/ton for pickled products, cold-rolled products, hot-dip galvanized plates, electro-galvanized plates, and medium aluminum zinc aluminum magnesium plates compared to August [1] - The current market shows improved purchasing willingness among merchants, with steady downstream order growth and strong overseas industrial product consumption driving continued export order growth [1][2] Group 2 - The steel market is characterized by low inventories of finished products and raw materials in the manufacturing sector, with expectations for a stronger peak season [2] - Steel companies are maintaining profits, with flat steel gross margins expected to rise to 250-300 CNY/ton in August, while supply remains stable and steel inventories are low [2] - Export demand is expected to continue supporting the market, with July export data showing a year-on-year increase, particularly in industrial products, driven by international trade dynamics [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel market is expected to continue facing supply-demand imbalances, with prices likely to trend downward throughout 2025, despite some short-term technical rebounds [1][4][5] Supply Side: Policy-Driven Contraction and Global Divergence - From January to May 2025, China's crude steel production reached 43,171 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 441.4 million tons, or 1.01% [2] - The market anticipates a 1.5% year-on-year decline in crude steel production for the second half of the year, with total annual production expected to remain below 1 billion tons [2] - Global crude steel production shows structural divergence, with India's output increasing by 8.42% while Germany and Russia saw declines of 10.34% and 6.09%, respectively [2] Demand Side: Weak Real Estate Data, Slowing Infrastructure and Export Growth - From January to May 2025, China's apparent crude steel consumption was 37,842.45 million tons, down 1,585.91 million tons, or 4.02% year-on-year [3] - Real estate investment decreased by 10.7%, with new housing starts down 22.8%, negatively impacting demand for construction steel [3] - Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, and while steel exports increased by 8.2%, growth is expected to decelerate in the second half due to tariffs and anti-dumping investigations [3] Market Outlook: Continued Weakness in Supply and Demand - The steel market is projected to maintain a "dual decline" scenario, with supply constrained by crude steel reduction policies and demand showing only weak recovery [4] - The overall price trend for the year is likely to exhibit an "N" shape, with potential short-term rebounds in Q3 followed by challenges in Q4 due to seasonal demand drops and inventory pressures [5]

Report Information - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: May 23, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] Market Performance Futures Market - On May 22, the main contracts 2510 of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures oscillated; the main contract 2507 of stainless steel futures also oscillated [5]. - For RB2510, the previous closing price was 3061 yuan/ton, the opening price was 3062 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3076 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3043 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3061 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.03%. The trading volume was 1,461,626 lots, the open interest was 2,174,638 lots with an increase of 5,242 lots, and the capital inflow was 0.11 billion yuan [5]. - For HC2510, the previous closing price was 3211 yuan/ton, the opening price was 3210 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3226 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3202 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3210 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.09%. The trading volume was 456,989 lots, the open interest was 1,353,196 lots with an increase of 3,938 lots, and the capital inflow was 0.08 billion yuan [5]. - For SS2507, the previous closing price was 12870 yuan/ton, the opening price was 12870 yuan/ton, the highest price was 12920 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 12850 yuan/ton, the closing price was 12880 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.04%. The trading volume was 117,615 lots, the open interest was 123,141 lots with a decrease of 3,041 lots, and the capital outflow was 0.27 billion yuan [5]. Spot Market - On May 22, the HRB400E 20mm rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Jinan, Tianjin, Chengdu, and Xi'an were 3190 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, 3360 yuan/ton, 3330 yuan/ton, 3270 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, 3290 yuan/ton, and 3190 yuan/ton respectively. The price changes were 0, -10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 yuan/ton [8]. - The 4.75mm hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Jinan, Tianjin, Chengdu, and Xi'an were 3270 yuan/ton, 3290 yuan/ton, 3290 yuan/ton, 3350 yuan/ton, 3300 yuan/ton, 3280 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, 3460 yuan/ton, and 3350 yuan/ton respectively. The price changes were -10, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 yuan/ton [8]. Technical Indicators - The daily KDJ indicators of the 2510 contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil were diverging downward. The daily MACD red bars of the 2510 contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil both shrank [8]. Market Outlook - Currently, the production and factory inventories of the five major steel products have increased, social inventories have continued to decline, and apparent demand has decreased. Looking ahead, the steel market prices are continuously under downward pressure. In the supply-demand pattern, the relatively low inventory level is one of the few supporting factors. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate and bottom out in the short term [10]. Industry News - According to Mysteel, on May 22, the total inventory of imported sinter powder in 114 new-caliber steel mills was 26.7503 million tons, a decrease of 396,400 tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 1.171 million tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory consumption ratio was 22.84, a decrease of 0.20 from the previous period. The total inventory of imported sinter powder in 64 old-caliber steel mills was 12.4352 million tons, a decrease of 575,100 tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 597,600 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous period. The average proportion of imported ore used in sinter was 86.86%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the previous period. The average tax-excluded hot metal cost of steel mills was 2375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous period. In addition, the tax-excluded hot metal cost of 114 new-caliber steel mills after excluding long-term shutdown samples was 2362 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from the previous period [11]. - In April 2025, the national crude steel production was 86.02 million tons, the same as the previous year; the daily production was 2.8673 million tons/day, a decrease of 4.3% from the previous month. The pig iron production was 72.58 million tons, an increase of 0.7% from the previous year; the daily production was 2.4193 million tons/day, a decrease of 0.4% from the previous month. The steel production was 125.09 million tons, an increase of 6.6% from the previous year; the daily production was 4.1697 million tons/day, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous month. From January to April, the national crude steel production was 345 million tons, an increase of 0.4% from the previous year; the cumulative daily production was 2.8779 million tons. The pig iron production was 289 million tons, an increase of 0.8% from the previous year; the cumulative daily production was 2.4071 million tons. The steel production was 480 million tons, an increase of 6.0% from the previous year; the cumulative daily production was 4.0018 million tons [11]. - On May 17, the No. 2 heating furnace of the gas transformation project of the heating furnace in the No. 1 hot-rolled coil workshop of Shagang, implemented by MCC Southern Thermal Engineering EPC, was successfully ignited and entered the baking stage. The project carried out an overall transformation of the combustion systems of two heating furnaces, redistributed the heat load of the original heating furnaces to meet the high-load production demand, updated the control system, and adopted MILD flameless combustion ultra-low emission technology and equipment, significantly reducing the pollutant emissions of the heating furnaces [11]. Data Overview - The report also includes data charts such as the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly production of the five major steel products, the factory inventory of the five major steel products, the blast furnace operating rate and ironmaking capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average hot metal production, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and May contracts [14][15][17]