一是制造业成品与原料库存偏低，旺季预期开始转强。实际上，每年7月、8月份，国内消费和生产动能 均相对较弱，但当前并未明显减弱，钢企订单压力并未大幅增大。同时，7月份CPI(消费者物价指数)和 PPI(工业品出厂价格指数)数据均呈现结构性向好的态势。笔者了解到，当前制造业原料库存呈现逐步 回升的态势，终端拿货积极性有所增强，支撑了淡季的需求释放。 二是钢企利润尚存，供给相对稳定，钢材库存保持低位。当前，钢企生产扁平材的毛利润持续回升。据 监测，8月份扁平材毛利润将在250元/吨～300元/吨。同时，8月份供给端将继续呈现下降态势，原因主 要是部分钢企仍处在淡季检修中，叠加大型钢企积极落实控产政策，这些因素有望推动供需矛盾进一步 缓和，叠加钢材库存保持低位，推动近期钢企信心好转。 日前，中国宝武出台了9月份钢材出厂价格政策，在8月份基础上再度上调价格。笔者认为，此次调涨的 原因主要是淡季行情逐渐进入尾声，企业接单压力有所缓解，叠加下游补库预期增强。 从具体品种来看，9月份中国宝武生产的厚板、热轧产品、无取向硅钢、高铝锌铝镁板、镀铝锌板、彩 涂板基价在8月份基础上调涨200元/吨，酸洗产品、普冷产品、热镀锌板、电镀 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel market is expected to continue facing supply-demand imbalances, with prices likely to trend downward throughout 2025, despite some short-term technical rebounds [1][4][5] Supply Side: Policy-Driven Contraction and Global Divergence - From January to May 2025, China's crude steel production reached 43,171 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 441.4 million tons, or 1.01% [2] - The market anticipates a 1.5% year-on-year decline in crude steel production for the second half of the year, with total annual production expected to remain below 1 billion tons [2] - Global crude steel production shows structural divergence, with India's output increasing by 8.42% while Germany and Russia saw declines of 10.34% and 6.09%, respectively [2] Demand Side: Weak Real Estate Data, Slowing Infrastructure and Export Growth - From January to May 2025, China's apparent crude steel consumption was 37,842.45 million tons, down 1,585.91 million tons, or 4.02% year-on-year [3] - Real estate investment decreased by 10.7%, with new housing starts down 22.8%, negatively impacting demand for construction steel [3] - Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, and while steel exports increased by 8.2%, growth is expected to decelerate in the second half due to tariffs and anti-dumping investigations [3] Market Outlook: Continued Weakness in Supply and Demand - The steel market is projected to maintain a "dual decline" scenario, with supply constrained by crude steel reduction policies and demand showing only weak recovery [4] - The overall price trend for the year is likely to exhibit an "N" shape, with potential short-term rebounds in Q3 followed by challenges in Q4 due to seasonal demand drops and inventory pressures [5]

021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2024 年 5 月 23 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 数据来源：上期所网站，建信期货研究发展部 5 月 22 日，螺纹钢、热卷期货主力合约 2510 震荡运行；不锈钢期货主力合 约 2507 震荡运行。 表2：5月22日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） | 合约 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 多空 | 偏离度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 持仓 | 持仓 | 持仓变化 | 持仓变化 | ...