Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten mining industry is facing challenges due to national quota restrictions and environmental enforcement, yet actual production has exceeded quotas significantly, leading to persistent price volatility [2][3] - Rapid growth in industries such as automotive and integrated circuits post-May 2025 has resulted in a sharp increase in tungsten demand, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and driving prices up [2][5] Key Points Demand and Supply Dynamics - From 2000 to 2017, China's military and civilian equipment saw significant advancements, increasing tungsten demand [2] - The tungsten concentrate market experienced synchronized growth in demand and supply from 2000 to 2014, but oversupply due to new and expanded mines suppressed price increases [9][10] - Since the 2020s, emerging applications in photovoltaic materials, semiconductors, and electric vehicles have significantly impacted tungsten demand [13] Price Trends - Tungsten prices surged after May 2025 primarily due to worsening supply-demand imbalances, despite government quota reductions [5][6] - Historical data indicates that as long as demand continues to grow rapidly and supply cannot keep pace, prices will remain high or increase further [7] Production Challenges - Mining capacity has been declining since 2021 due to resource depletion and safety issues, leading to reduced processing volumes [14] - The recycling rate of waste materials has improved but is nearing its limit, which may further widen the supply-demand gap and push prices up [14][15] Market Responses - The government and companies have implemented measures to stabilize the tungsten concentrate market, including stockpiling and auctioning [12] - The price transmission in the tungsten product market appears to be smooth, with companies able to pass on costs to consumers [18] Future Outlook - In 2026, tungsten prices are expected to continue rising due to tight supply, although some relief may come from the gradual release of capacity from smaller mines in the latter half of the year [16][17] - New tungsten mining projects in China are anticipated to come online between 2026 and 2027, potentially adding 30,000 to 40,000 tons of supply [21] Waste Recycling and Import Restrictions - The ban on solid waste imports since January 2021 has tightened domestic waste supply, impacting recycling rates negatively [19] - If China relaxes its solid waste import ban, it could help balance global supply-demand dynamics and stabilize domestic prices [20] Conclusion - The tungsten industry is currently navigating a complex landscape of rising demand, supply constraints, and regulatory challenges, with future price movements heavily dependent on the interplay between these factors.

钨价新高解读 20251217 摘要 2024 年 1-10 月原生钨原料供应同比下降 3.34%，总产量 11 万标吨， 第一批开采指标减少 6.45%至 5.8 万吨，再生资源供应小幅增长，进口 钨精矿大幅增长 59.33%至 15,647 标吨，总体原料供应与去年持平， 但消费需求每年增长约 1.5%，导致供需紧张。 钨市场价格上涨主要由供需紧张、出口管制文件提升中国战略地位、开 采指标下调预期、国际局势紧张、矿山惜售以及社会资本炒作等多重因 素驱动，利好中钨高新、厦门钨业、洛阳钼业等头部企业。 中国在全球钨供应链中占据绝对优势地位，出口管控政策已导致国外钨 价大幅上涨，头部企业产量和市场份额巩固了这一地位，国际局势不稳 定背景下，中国作为主要生产国的重要性愈加凸显。 展望 2026 年，国际局势不确定性及军费预算增加或将持续推升钨需求， 中国可能维持或加强出口及生产控制，供需关系预计仍将紧张，钨价或 保持高位，中国将继续发挥关键作用。 当前钨精矿市场价格为 42-43 万元/吨，生产成本约 13 万元/吨，利润 接近 30 万元/吨，头部企业如东吴高新和厦门钨业预计利润可观，并有 动力捍卫当前价格水平 ...

摘要 行业近况 据亚洲金属网，1-5月钨精矿价格从12.2万元/吨持续上行至15.7万元/吨；6-7月，因下游需求负反馈，钨价回调至12.9万元/吨并 企稳；7月起钨价再次震荡上行。截至11月11日，中国钨精矿价格达14.15万元/吨，年初以来累计上涨16%，接近2011年15.9万 元/吨的历史高位。 供给侧，中国钨精矿产量持续收紧，钨精矿库存去化至历史低位。 当前钨供给呈现以下边际变化： 一是中国供给增速明显放缓。 据 钨钼云商，受品位变化、环保要求等影响，1-10月中国钨精矿生产量8.7万吨，累计同比-9.6%，其中10月中国钨精矿产量9435吨，同/ 环比-2.1%/-2.5%。 二是中国钨精矿进口明显增加。 据海关总署，2024年前三季度中国钨精矿进口量8136吨，累计同比+95%，其中9 月中国钨精矿进口同/环比+96%/+27%。 三是中国钨精矿库存去化至历史低位。 据亚洲金属网，截至9月底中国钨精矿生产商库存仅 为100吨，处于历史2%分位数。 四是海外仅哈萨克斯坦有望形成明显供给增量， 我们预计2025-2027年或达到全球钨供给的 4.4%/5.4%/6.6%。 需求侧，静待稳增长发力带动 ...