专家交流 - 钨价何去何从 20250824 摘要 全球钨需求稳定增长，年增长率约 1.2%，主要驱动力来自高端制造业， 特别是航天航空和军工领域，每年消耗约 11 万吨纯金属量的钨，相当 于 22 万吨标准吨的钨精矿。 中国是全球钨供应的主导者，提供约 80%的需求量。2024 年中国原生 钨精矿产量为 13.35 万吨，远不能满足市场需求，再生钨原料成为重要 补充，部分工厂再生物料使用比例已提升至 30%。 近期小金属市场供需变化导致钨价迅猛上涨，55 度钨精矿价格已达每吨 22 万元，APT 价格接近 33 万元，创历史新高，较 2024 年全年平均价 位上涨超过 50%。 钨价上涨的主要原因包括：自然资源部减少钨配额，商务部和海关总署 加强出口管控，国际市场涨价显著，以及俄乌战争等地缘政治冲突导致 军工需求预期增加，上游企业利润较高。 中国政府加强打击废旧金属走私力度，减少了废旧金属供应，加剧了市 场紧张局势。军工领域对钨的直接和间接消费需求均显著增加，大规模 军备竞赛将进一步推高需求。 Q&A 请简要介绍钨行业的产业链结构。 钨行业的产业链分为上游、中游和下游。上游包括采矿业、选矿业以及废物回 收加 ...

Group 1 - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with operating income of 1.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -290 million yuan, a decrease of 180 million yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The company plans to change its name to "Jiangxi Jiangtu Rare and Precious Equipment Co., Ltd." and its stock abbreviation to "Jiangtu Equipment" following a major asset restructuring and change in controlling shareholder [2] - The major asset restructuring was completed in August 2025, where the company divested its core coal business and acquired a 57% stake in Jinhui Magnetic Selection, with profit commitments for the next three years [2] Group 2 - The tungsten business is projected to have a value exceeding 20 billion yuan, with estimated annual net profit contributions of approximately 750 million yuan from tungsten concentrate and smelting processing [3][4] - The company holds tungsten resources of 496,600 tons, with an estimated annual revenue of about 2.17 billion yuan from tungsten concentrate sales, and a net profit of around 700 million yuan after costs and taxes [2][3] - The tantalum, niobium, and lithium business is estimated to have a market value of about 10 billion yuan, with projected net profits of approximately 300 million yuan based on historical profit margins [4] Group 3 - The change in controlling shareholder to Jiangtu Holdings is expected to enhance the company's ability to integrate non-coal resources and improve financial performance [4] - The company has adjusted its profit expectations for 2025-2027, forecasting net profits of -210 million yuan, -100 million yuan, and -43 million yuan respectively, due to declining coking coal prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten industry is characterized by a significant supply-demand gap, with expectations of a global shortage increasing from 13,000 tons in 2023 to 18,000 tons by 2027, indicating a systemic rise in tungsten prices due to its strategic importance and scarcity [2][3]. Industry Overview - Tungsten is a globally important strategic resource known for its high hardness, melting point, and resistance to high temperatures and corrosion, making it essential in various sectors including transportation, mining, industrial manufacturing, and military applications [7][9]. - The global tungsten reserves are concentrated, with China holding over 50% of the total tungsten resources and production, making it a key player in the tungsten market [14][19]. Driving Factors - The rarity of tungsten resources and continuous innovation in mining technology are crucial for the industry's growth, with global tungsten reserves increasing from approximately 3.3 million tons in 2018 to 4.4 million tons in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.9% [14]. - Demand for tungsten from downstream industries is on the rise, particularly in aerospace, military, and photovoltaic sectors, with projections indicating that global tungsten consumption could reach approximately 151,100 tons by 2028 [15]. - Technological advancements in mining and smelting processes are enhancing the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of tungsten extraction, making the market more attractive to investors [16][17]. Supply-Demand Structure - The supply of tungsten remains rigid, with China accounting for 52.5% of global tungsten reserves and 82.3% of production in 2024, despite a gradual decline in the quality of tungsten ore due to extensive mining [19][21]. - The Chinese government implements strict controls on tungsten mining, with total mining quotas gradually increasing but remaining limited, which contributes to a tight supply situation [21][27]. - The production cost of tungsten concentrates is expected to rise significantly, with estimates indicating costs could exceed 130,000 yuan per ton by 2024 [27][29]. Price Outlook - The price of tungsten is supported by strong cost factors, with production costs currently ranging from 96,000 to 107,000 yuan per ton, and expected to maintain upward pressure due to increasing mining costs and regulatory constraints [27][29]. - The global tungsten market is anticipated to experience price increases driven by supply constraints and rising demand from various industrial applications [2][3]. Industry Development Trends - The tungsten industry is expected to see continued growth in hard alloy production, with domestic production increasing from 33,800 tons in 2018 to an estimated 58,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 9.4% [37]. - The demand for tungsten wire, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, is projected to grow rapidly as it replaces traditional carbon steel wire due to its superior properties [53][54].

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Tungsten Demand**: Global tungsten demand is robust, with hard alloys being the primary consumption area, accounting for 65% of total demand. Emerging industries such as electric vehicles, aerospace, and military applications are driving growth in tungsten demand [2][3][4]. - **China's Tungsten Resources**: China holds 51% of global tungsten reserves and produces 80% of the world's tungsten. The industry is highly concentrated, with Jiangxi, Hunan, and Henan provinces holding 80% of China's reserves, which is 40% of global reserves [2][5]. - **Price Dynamics**: Tungsten prices have risen due to multiple factors, including environmental regulations, export controls, and structural constraints. In 2025, tungsten prices reached their highest level since 2011, with a cumulative increase of 21.8% [2][9]. Key Insights - **Strategic Importance**: Tungsten is considered a strategic resource, essential for industrial manufacturing, often referred to as the "industrial tooth." The supply-demand dynamics are tightening, leading to higher prices in the context of de-globalization [3][6]. - **Supply Constraints**: The growth rate of tungsten supply is limited, with China's production growth slowing down and overseas increments being insufficient to offset the reduction in Chinese output. By 2025, overseas supply is expected to increase slightly, but long-term production levels may stabilize around 2013 levels [4][15]. - **Export Control Impact**: China's tightening of supply indicators and export controls has led to a split in domestic and international price systems. Despite overall declines in tungsten product exports, the export of high-value downstream products like tools and blades has continued to grow [8][22]. Market Changes - **Global Supply Chain Reconfiguration**: Countries are increasingly focusing on the security of the tungsten supply chain. The U.S. and Europe are restructuring their supply chains and supporting overseas tungsten mining projects while planning to build higher strategic inventories [2][10]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are encouraged to understand the fundamentals of tungsten and consider stock allocations in related companies, as the current price increases and favorable market conditions may lead to significant benefits for listed companies [7][28]. Financial Performance - **Listed Companies' Growth**: Major Chinese tungsten companies have shown significant revenue growth from 18.75 billion yuan in 2019 to 37.25 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.7% [25]. - **Cash Flow Analysis**: Leading companies reported stable operating cash flows, with significant improvements in financing activities, indicating a strong financial position to capitalize on market opportunities [26]. Future Outlook - **Demand Projections**: The demand for tungsten is expected to grow due to the rise of new industries and increased military spending globally. The compound annual growth rate for tungsten consumption is projected to be 2.61% from 2025 to 2038 [19][24]. - **Price Trends**: Tungsten prices are anticipated to remain high in the short term, driven by tightening supply and increasing demand for high-end equipment. The market is expected to enter a prolonged bullish phase [29]. Conclusion - The tungsten industry is poised for significant growth driven by strategic demand from various sectors, supply constraints, and favorable pricing dynamics. Companies in this sector are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, making tungsten a critical area for investment consideration.

Core Viewpoint - Tungsten prices have surged, with ammonium paratungstate (APT) reaching a historical high of 250,000 yuan/ton, driven by tight supply conditions and decreasing ore grades [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Trends - On May 29, 2023, the price of 65% black tungsten concentrate reached 171,000 yuan/ton, up 19.6% year-to-date and 22.1% from the lowest price this year [1] - The price of 65% white tungsten concentrate was 170,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 19.7% increase year-to-date and a 22.3% rise from the year's lowest price [1] - The average grade of tungsten ore is projected to decline from 0.42% in 2024 to 0.28% in 2025, increasing mining costs to over 100,000 yuan/ton [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Global tungsten resources are concentrated, with China holding 55% of the 4.4 million tons of tungsten reserves [1] - The first batch of tungsten mining quotas for 2025 is set at 58,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons (6.45%) from 2024 [1] - Major producing regions in China, such as Jiangxi and Yunnan, will see significant reductions in mining quotas, while low-producing areas will have their quotas set to zero [1] Group 3: Demand Drivers - Tungsten is essential in various industries, including aerospace, automotive, and electronics, with over 40% of tungsten demand coming from hard alloy tool production [2] - The military sector is experiencing rapid growth in tungsten demand, alongside increasing needs in high-end fields like aerospace, industrial robotics, and medical devices [2][3] - A report from CITIC Securities forecasts a supply-demand gap of 4,679 tons in the tungsten industry by 2025, which will support tungsten prices [3]

Group 1: Financial Performance and Goals - The company plans to achieve a sales revenue of 3.8 billion CNY in 2025, with a focus on various operational segments [2] - In 2024, the company produced 3,739 tons of tungsten concentrate (65%), a decrease of 9.99% year-on-year [8] - The self-sufficiency rate for tungsten raw materials in 2024 was approximately 20% [9] Group 2: Operational Strategy - The company is enhancing its mining operations by integrating resource exploration and optimizing mining methods to improve efficiency [3] - The company aims to develop high-value-added products and improve production processes through digital transformation [5] - The company has established a complete tungsten industry chain, ranking first in tungsten powder production and second in carbide tungsten powder production as of Q4 2024 [3] Group 3: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is recognized as one of the few manufacturers in China with a complete tungsten industry chain, which strengthens its market resilience [3] - The company focuses on innovation and has established a technology center to drive research and development [4] - The company benefits from regional policy advantages that support the development and utilization of tungsten resources [5] Group 4: Product Sales and Market Trends - In 2024, tungsten powder sales were 3,980 tons, a decrease of 4.67% year-on-year, while tungsten carbide powder sales increased by 0.20% to 4,923 tons [14] - The company’s subsidiary, Ganzhou Aoketai, reported a revenue of 665.99 million CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.93% [15] - The sales of coated blades increased by 6.22% to 21.68 million pieces in 2024 [15] Group 5: Future Development Outlook - The company is committed to sustainable development and aims to enhance resource exploration and mining efficiency [6] - The focus will be on high-performance tungsten products for various industries, including aerospace and renewable energy [7] - The company plans to continue its efforts in resource integration and smart mining construction to ensure orderly resource replacement [10]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of CNY 367,325.17 million, representing an 8.02% increase year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 17,202.86 million, reflecting a 19.50% growth compared to the previous year [2] - For Q1 2025, the operating revenue reached CNY 118,625.34 million, marking a 35.74% increase year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was CNY 4,256.78 million, a significant increase of 56.46% year-on-year [2] Mining Operations - In 2024, the production of tungsten concentrate (65%) was 3,739 tons, a decrease of 9.99% year-on-year [3] - The production of tin concentrate (100% metal content) was 828 tons, down 6.12% year-on-year [3] - Copper concentrate production (100% metal content) increased by 1.81% to 449 tons [3] - The self-sufficiency rate for tungsten raw materials was approximately 20% in 2024 [4] Resource Integration - The company is advancing resource integration, with the verification report for the Taoxikeng tungsten mine and Dongfeng's resources approved by the Ministry of Natural Resources [5] - The verification reports for the Xin'anzi tungsten-tin mine and Longtanmian, as well as the deep resource verification report for Dayu Shilei tungsten mine, are nearing completion [5][6] Powder Product Sales - In 2024, tungsten powder sales were 3,980 tons, a decrease of 4.67% year-on-year [7] - Sales of tungsten carbide powder were 4,923 tons, showing a slight increase of 0.20% [7] - Sales of thermal spray powder decreased by 12.22% to 388 tons [7] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced an increase in product sales due to enhanced customer loyalty [7] Subsidiary Performance - In 2024, Ganzhou Aoketai reported operating revenue of CNY 66,599.13 million, a growth of 21.93% year-on-year [8] - The net profit was a loss of CNY 682.28 million, an improvement from a loss of CNY 4,193.11 million in the previous year [8] - Gaining traction in various sectors, Aoketai increased sales of coated blades by 6.22% to 2,168 million pieces and rod sales by 12.19% to 773 tons [8] Market Impact - The rise in tungsten concentrate prices has a generally positive impact on the company, although significant fluctuations in raw material prices could affect production costs and operational performance [9] Future Development Plans - The company aims to focus on efficient utilization and development of tungsten resources, emphasizing high-performance, high-precision, and high-value-added hard alloys [10] - Plans include resource exploration, deep mining development, and digital transformation of production facilities [11] - The strategy involves enhancing production processes, developing specialized powder products, and targeting high-value markets such as aerospace and new energy [11]

Summary of the Conference Call for Zhongtung High-Tech Company Overview - Zhongtung High-Tech has established a complete tungsten industry chain through the acquisition of Shizhu Garden, enhancing resource self-sufficiency and promoting product diversification, green, intelligent, and high-end development [2][6][9] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total profit of 1.176 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, with earnings per share of 1.16 yuan and a total cash dividend exceeding 360 million yuan [2][3] - For Q1 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 230 million yuan, significantly up from the previous year, driven by the mining business of Shizhu Garden and Jingzhou [2][5][9] - The overall revenue for 2024 reached 14.743 billion yuan, a 7.8% increase year-on-year [3] Business Segments - The cutting tools segment saw a revenue increase of approximately 4% in 2024, although the gross margins for CNC blades and traditional blades declined [2][3] - The hard alloy segment experienced a slight decrease, while the refractory metals segment's revenue grew nearly 12% [3] - The overall gross margin for cutting tools improved by about four percentage points, mainly due to the high-end Pangu series products [3][4] Production and Capacity - The company plans to produce 8,000 tons of tungsten concentrate in 2025, maintaining the same quota as the previous year [2][14] - The self-sufficiency rate for tungsten concentrate is approximately 20%, which can reach 70% when including other mines [2][24] - The production capacity for micro-drill products has expanded to 680 million units, with a monthly output nearing 70 million units [2][21] Market Dynamics - A reduction in tungsten concentrate quotas may lead to a short-term price drop, but long-term prospects for tungsten prices remain positive due to its strategic scarcity [2][10] - The company is focusing on high-quality mining assets and small enterprises with core technologies in downstream processing [4][12] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively responding to market management requirements and emphasizes stable cash dividend policies to enhance shareholder returns [2][8] - Strategic restructuring has been deepened, with a focus on integrating the tungsten industry chain and enhancing resource reserves [6][9] Technological Advancements - The micro-drill products from Jinzhu Company align with the demand for AI servers and intelligent computing infrastructure, with a leading market position in technology reserves [7][21] - The company is involved in the robotics sector, focusing on cutting tools and tungsten wire applications, although specific quantitative data is not available [23] Challenges and Risks - The cutting tools segment faces operational pressures, particularly in the micro-drill business, despite good performance in aerospace and automotive direct sales [17] - The average sales price of cutting tools has decreased by about 9% year-on-year, primarily due to structural changes in product pricing [18] Conclusion - Zhongtung High-Tech is positioned for growth through strategic acquisitions, diversified product offerings, and a focus on technological advancements, while navigating challenges in market dynamics and operational pressures in certain segments [2][6][9][10]

观点聚焦 我们认为，全球钨供需或将长期维持紧缺，钨价中枢有望迎来系统性上行。在钨价中枢抬升、中国钨业上市公司加速钨矿资源注入及开发、下游产能高端化 三大趋势下，中国钨业龙头的配置价值有望逐步凸显。 资源开发放缓；钨供给增量超预期；下游需求不足；钨价大幅波动。 T正文ext 1.供给：钨资源稀缺性强，供给有望维持偏紧格局 钨是一种战略性较强的资源，具有多种优秀且独特的性质，应用广泛并且难以替代。 据中钨在线，钨的熔点约3410摄氏度，在所有金属元素中位列第一； 钨的密度为19.35g/cm3，在非贵金属中位列第一；钨的莫氏硬度高达7.5，在金属中名列前茅。此外，钨还具有较强耐磨性、较强耐腐蚀性、高导电性、高导 热性等优势。凭借自身优良的性能，钨及其制品广泛应用于机械制造、矿山采掘、航空航天、汽车工业、新能源、国防等领域，且难以被其他金属材料替代 理由 供给侧，全球钨供给稀缺性强，集中度高，2023年中国钨的储量和产量占比均列全球第一，对全球钨供应具有较大影响力。 由于前期钨矿资源的较快消 耗，中国钨矿储采比明显低于全球平均水平，整体面临矿山老化、品位下降的压力，加之钨精矿开采总量控制及供改、环保政策趋严，使得国 ...