大家都知道今年11月11日光棍节铁矿圈出了件大事，说西芒杜铁矿出货了。 半个月过去了，我寻思着问问船舶动态、装港指标啥的，更新一下进展。 问了几个业内人士，说还在装。我突然有点懵，不是出货了嘛，十几天了还没开出来？ 然后我翻回去看了下当时的官方新闻，仔细研读了一遍。发现是我大意了，当时的文章是这么写的: 满载首批9850吨铁矿石驶离马瑞巴亚港。 本博主误以为是铁矿石装完货已经有ETS了，或者叫ETD了，就是开船了，开出几内亚，开出非洲了，进入茫茫大海，奔着中国来了。 实际上不是这么回事。这个装载9850吨的船，是韦立船队的，叫自航接驳船。就跟那个坐飞机之前坐的那个摆渡车一样的，摆渡车不会拉你到新加坡、马来 西亚、印度尼西亚。摆渡车作用是送你到飞机旁。 这个摆渡船是负责把铁矿运到大船附近的。这个大船叫"Winning Youth"。当然，这个大船也是韦立他们家的。 暂时不知道中文船名叫啥，我就让豆包翻译了50个名字，我选了"青曜"暂用，大意是耀眼出众的年轻人。西芒杜是新矿，跟老牌铁矿，确实是年轻人。 这个青曜轮大宗散货船是个Newcastlemax，翻译过来是纽卡斯尔型散货船。这个类型的船大概能装20万吨左右的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of steel are peaking, with seasonal demand decline and supply - demand pressure. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center may shift downwards before the parade. The prices of coking coal and coke may see their price centers gradually rise, and one can wait for corrections to go long on far - month contracts. Iron ore prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and ferroalloy futures prices are close to the cost of some production areas, with high - premium risks largely released [5][14][17][19][20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: From January to July, China's new and renovated rural roads totaled 51,000 kilometers, and the fixed - asset investment in rural roads reached 206.24 billion yuan. In July, China's excavator output was 24,732 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. The spot prices of Shanghai and Beijing's rebar remained unchanged, while the spot prices of Shanghai and Tianjin's hot - rolled coils decreased by 20 yuan [3][4] - **Logical Analysis**: The black sector rebounded slightly last night. Currently, steel products are generally accumulating inventory, with the inventory accumulation rate slowing down. Hot - rolled steel demand remains strong, while construction steel demand is accelerating its decline. With the approaching parade, blast furnace production cuts may drive down raw material prices and lower the steel price center. Steel prices will oscillate weakly in the short term [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Steel will maintain a range - bound trend. It is recommended to enter into positive basis spreads on dips and hold them. It is advisable to wait and see on options [8][9][10] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On the 20th, the online auction sentiment of coking coal in the Lvliang market was poor, with many auctions resulting in failures or price cuts. The coking coal forward market was stable. The warehouse - receipt prices of coke and coking coal in different regions were provided [11][12] - **Logical Analysis**: The spot price of coking coal fluctuates, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. The coking enterprises proposed a seventh - round price increase for coke, but the downstream steel mills have not given a clear response. In the medium term, coal supply will be disrupted, and the coking coal price center will gradually rise [13][14] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for corrections to go long on far - month contracts. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, options, and spot - futures trading [15] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The US Treasury Secretary said there was a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues. Six out of nine listed building materials companies achieved profitability in the first half of 2025. On the 20th, the national main port iron ore trading volume increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the construction steel trading volume of 237 mainstream traders increased by 12.4% month - on - month. The spot prices and standard product prices of different iron ore varieties were provided [16] - **Logical Analysis**: The iron ore price rose 1.04% last night, and the market sentiment is fluctuating. The mainstream ore shipments are stable, and the non - mainstream ore shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for terminal steel is under pressure, and the factors driving the price up are weakening. Iron ore prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term [17] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy was provided in the text. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: In July 2025, the national manganese ore imports were 2743500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.22% and a year - on - year increase of 19.61%. The spot prices of different manganese ores in Tianjin Port were provided [19] - **Logical Analysis**: On the 20th, the spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weak, and the production increased last week. The spot price of manganese - silicon and manganese ore decreased, and the production of manganese - silicon accelerated. The high - premium risks of both have been largely released [19][20] - **Trading Strategy**: Partially reduce short positions. Enter into positive spot - futures arbitrage when the basis is low. Sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21]