1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of iron ore has recovered, the demand remains high, and although the downstream profits have weakened slightly, they are still at a high level. Iron ore may continue to fluctuate. The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short - term, and the basis of the 09 contract has declined slightly with a weaker basis rate. The short - term demand for iron ore still shows resilience, and the inventory has increased overall. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Differences - The premium of Jinbuba powder has declined; the premiums of mainstream medium - and low - grade ores are stable; the price difference between domestic and foreign ores is stable. [5] 3.2 Weekly Review Supply - Globally, the shipping volume has declined again. The shipments from Australia and Brazil have weakened significantly, while the shipments from non - mainstream regions have stabilized and rebounded. The arrival volume has generally increased. According to Reuters, on August 4, 2025, the 7 - day moving average shipping volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 5760 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 2.75%. The 7 - day moving average shipping volume from Australia was 2235 thousand tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 2.05%. The 7 - day moving average shipping volume from Brazil was 1408 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 40.6% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. [6][27] Demand - The iron water production has decreased slightly, with the 247 - sample daily average iron water production decreasing by 0.49 tons week - on - week to 240.32 tons, and the average daily iron water production in August being about 241 tons. The profitability rate of steel mills has increased. The weekly production of five major steel products has slightly increased, the profit of finished products has slightly decreased, the demand for rebar has rebounded, and the consumption of hot - rolled coils has declined. [6][106][132] Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports has increased by 620 thousand tons, and the proportion of traded ores is 65.48%. The total inventory of imported ores in steel mills has increased by 1.24 thousand tons, the on - site inventory has increased by 23.8 thousand tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventories has decreased by 22.7 thousand tons. The available days of imported ores have decreased by 1 day to 20 days. The inventory of rebar has slightly increased, the inventory of billets has continued to rise, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils has rebounded. [6][150][159] Price - The spot trading volume of iron ore has increased slightly, while the trading volume of forward contracts has declined from a high level. The basis rate of the 09 contract is about 0.4%, the basis has decreased slightly, and the basis rate has weakened. The prices of various iron ore varieties have shown different trends, and the import profits of mainstream varieties have declined oscillatingly. [6][125][181] 3.3 Weather - The precipitation in Brazil is scarce, and the overall precipitation has increased slightly. [7][8] 3.4 Balance Sheet - According to the recent shipping and arrival situation of iron ore, the supply forecast of iron ore has been slightly lowered. The total supply, consumption, surplus volume, and cumulative year - on - year changes of iron ore from September 2024 to December 2025 are presented in the balance sheet. For example, in August 2025, the total supply is 13167, the total consumption is 12261, and the surplus volume is 906. [186][187]

Supply Side - Global shipping volume has declined again, with noticeable decreases in shipments from Australia and Brazil, while non-mainstream regions have stabilized and rebounded [1][18][25] - The average daily iron water output from 247 samples is 240.32 million tons, down by 0.49 million tons compared to the previous period, with August's average at approximately 241 million tons [4][75] - Port inventory increased by 620,000 tons, with a slight decrease in the amount of cargo waiting to be shipped [1][114] Demand Side - Demand for iron water has slightly decreased, but the overall demand remains resilient, with construction material demand not experiencing a typical seasonal decline [1][93] - Steel mill profits have weakened slightly, but remain at a relatively high level [1][75] Inventory - Total inventory of the five major materials has slightly increased, with rebar inventory showing a small rise and hot-rolled coil inventory also increasing [1][104] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills increased by 12,400 tons, while the available days of imported ore decreased by one day to 20 days [122] Pricing and Cost - The average MA index for August is 100, corresponding to a market valuation of approximately 788 [148] - The price difference for various iron ore types shows a decline in the premium for Brazilian iron ore, while the premiums for mainstream mid-low grade ores remain stable [138][140] Shipping and Logistics - The shipping costs for maritime transport continue to show a strengthening trend [142] - The overall shipping volume from Australia’s major ports has shown mixed results, while Brazilian ports have remained stable [61][56]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply has weakened again and demand has declined slightly, but downstream profits remain good. Before the downward trend in demand is established, iron ore may continue to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend [5]. - The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short term [6]. - The premium of Jinbabu powder has increased slightly; the premiums of mainstream medium and low-grade ores are stable; the price difference between domestic and foreign ores has increased [8]. Summary by Directory Supply - Reuters: On August 4, 2025, the 7-day moving average shipping volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 3,881 thousand tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%. The 7-day moving average shipping volume of Australia was 2,243 thousand tons, a week-on-week decrease of 8% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%. The 7-day moving average shipping volume of Brazil was 943.1 thousand tons, a week-on-week decrease of 24.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.96% [31]. - Steel Union: Global shipments decreased slightly last week, and the arrivals at 45 ports increased by 266.5 thousand tons [58][97]. - Domestic ore: The total output of domestic ore continued to increase [103]. Demand - Steel mills: The profitability rate of steel mills continued to increase, and the molten iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,200 tons [107]. - Port clearance: The average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports last week was 302,710 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12,440 tons [118]. - Transactions: The spot trading volume of iron ore declined from a high level, and the trading volume of forward contracts increased significantly [123]. - Consumption: The weekly output of the five major steel products was stable, the profits of finished products weakened, the demand for rebar decreased slightly, and the consumption of hot-rolled coils increased [128]. Inventory - Ports: The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 1.4 million tons, and the proportion of traded ore was 65.35%, a slight decrease compared to the previous period [144]. - Steel mills: The total inventory of imported ore in steel mills increased by 1.269 million tons, the inventory in factories decreased by 460,000 tons, and the inventory in sea - floating and ports increased by 1.73 million tons. The available days of imported ore remained at 21 days [153]. Price - Spot: The spot trading volume of iron ore decreased, and the trading volume of forward contracts continued to increase. The basis rate of the 09 contract was about 0.6%, with a small change in the basis, close to parity, and a relatively low basis rate [9]. - Futures: The prices of futures and spot increased slightly, the basis was weak, and the 9 - 1 monthly spread was volatile and strong [158]. - Premium: The premiums of mainstream medium and low - grade ores were stable, and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores increased [166]. - Sea - floating cost: The cost of mainstream powders decreased [172]. - Import profit: The import profits of mainstream varieties were volatile and strong [175]. - August MA index average: The average value of the MA index in July was 100, corresponding to a disk valuation of about 791 [7]. Balance Sheet - According to the recent iron ore shipment and arrival situation, the supply forecast of iron ore has been slightly lowered [180].

作者：曾可 从业资格号：F03118676 0769-22116880 交易咨询号：Z0022773 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货铁矿石周报 需求韧性仍存，铁矿区间震荡 20250810 周度观点 ◆ 供应：近期全球铁矿发运量有所回落。2025年7月28日-8月3日，全球铁矿石发运总量环比减少139.1万吨至3061.8万吨。其 中，澳洲19港发运1721.2万吨，周环比降72.3万吨；巴西19港发运742.7万吨，周环比降141.6万吨；非主流地区发运有所 增加，周环比增74.8万吨至597.9万吨。不过，由于前期发运增量陆续到港，本期外矿到港量有所回升，2025年7月28日-8 月3日，中国45港到港量环比增加267.3吨至2507.8万吨；本轮北方六港到港总量为1253.1万吨，周环比增95.8万吨。当前 海外矿山处于发运淡季，供应压力整体不大。 ◆ 需求：截至2025年8月8日，MYSTEEL调研247家钢厂盈利率68.4%，较前周上升3.03%；钢厂高炉开工率83.75%，较前周上升 0.29%；日均铁水产量环比减少0.39万吨至240.32万吨，铁水产量微降但需求 ...