一方面，钢材价格波动率显著收窄，其核心原因在于供需两端均未出现能够支撑盘面展开趋势性行情的矛盾。供给端，行业缺乏自上而下的反内卷等强力 政策约束，产量调整更多依赖市场化盈亏调节。铁水产量在调整中正寻找新的平衡点，市场对阶段性亏损后的复产始终存有预期，特别是近期谷电利润的 出现，为电炉产线、尤其是建材的边际增量提供了现实可能，削弱供给收缩的想象空间。需求端，淡季特征依然明显，螺纹钢表观消费量持续回落，热卷 表需亦表现疲弱，整体现货市场维持刚需采购节奏。更关键的是，市场博弈的焦点已从对短期强刺激政策的期待，转向对中长期政策定力与经济目标的解 读，这进一步动摇了此前基于强预期的交易逻辑。供需两侧的故事性均在衰减，这种供需弱平衡状态，削弱了价格波动的驱动。 近期黑色系呈现弱势震荡格局，政策真空期内，多空双方博弈新的矛盾出现。整体市场波动率下降，观望情绪有所增加，在市场情绪由政策反内卷预期转 向淡季弱现实之际，盘面利润显现出先反弹后继续回落的大趋势，产业链内商品走势整体陷入上有顶、下有底的胶着状态，这种格局背后，是宏观预期摇 摆、产业现实矛盾不突出等多重因素交织的结果。 数据来源：Mysteel 同花顺 国海良时期货研 ...

光期研究 见微知著 钢材策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 钢材：基本面供需驱动有限，宏观扰动或将加剧 p 2 钢材：基本面供需驱动有限，宏观扰动或将加剧 | 目录 | | --- | | 1、11月钢材期现货价格窄幅震荡，螺纹表现强于热卷； | | 2、10月粗钢、生铁产量继续回落，11月螺纹周产量回落、热卷周产量回落； | | 3、11月高炉开工率回升，产能利率及铁水产量回落，电炉开工率、产能利用率回升； | | 4、11月全国建材成交量回升，杭州市场出库量回落； | | 5、10月投资增速全面回落，11月螺纹表需回落，热卷表需回落； | | 6、11月螺纹库存继续下降，热卷库存下降； | | 7、11月螺纹盘面、热卷盘面亏损收窄，长流程钢厂亏损扩大、短流程钢厂亏损收窄。 | 注：本表期货价格为本周五夜盘收盘价格与上周五夜盘收盘价格对比。 数据来源:wind,光大期货研究所 p 3 p 4 1.1 价格：11月黑色系商品走势分化，煤焦大幅下跌，铁矿石、钢材窄幅震荡，螺纹强于热卷 ...

Core Insights - The national statistics indicate mixed trends in steel prices in the circulating market from early to mid-November 2025, with some products experiencing price increases while others saw declines [1] Price Changes Summary - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) price is 3139.0 CNY/ton, up by 20.5 CNY/ton, a rise of 0.7%, compared to a previous decline of 0.1% [1] - Wire rod (Φ8-10mm, HPB300) price is 3282.6 CNY/ton, increased by 10.9 CNY/ton, a rise of 0.3%, following a previous decline of 0.3% [1] - Ordinary medium plate (20mm, Q235) price is 3393.7 CNY/ton, down by 18.1 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.5%, which is an increase in the decline rate by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous period [1] - Hot-rolled ordinary coil (4.75-11.5mm, Q235) price is 3289.0 CNY/ton, decreased by 7.7 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.2%, which is a narrowing of the decline rate by 0.5 percentage points [1] - Seamless steel pipe (219*6, 20) price is 4068.8 CNY/ton, down by 10.4 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.3%, which is a narrowing of the decline rate by 0.1 percentage points [1] - Angle steel (5) price is 3423.3 CNY/ton, increased by 3.4 CNY/ton, a rise of 0.1%, which is a narrowing of the increase rate by 0.1 percentage points [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the steel prices have remained relatively stable since the beginning of the year, with fluctuations within a certain range, and have generally decreased compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The company, Jindao Technology (301279), responded to investor inquiries on October 15, indicating the current state of the steel market [1] - The overall trend in steel prices suggests a downward movement when compared to the previous year [1]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions with light positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to continue to converge [1]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, rebar 05 contract decreased from 3244 to 3212 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 01 contract decreased from 3380 to 3340 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of billets and slabs remained unchanged. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions and the profit of rebar in different regions showed various changes, such as the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increasing by 16 [1]. - **Output**: The daily average molten iron output increased slightly by 0.2% to 241.0 tons. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.2% to 855.5 tons, with rebar output decreasing by 2.6% to 206.5 tons and hot - rolled coil output increasing by 0.4% to 326.5 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.3% to 1519.7 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 0.5% to 650.3 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.3% to 378.0 tons [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.8% to 11.5 tons. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 0.8% to 850.3 tons, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 6.0% to 210.0 tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 1.3% to 321.8 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Iron ore is currently in a tight - balance pattern. It is recommended to view it as oscillating upward. The reference range is 780 - 850. It is suggested to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, such as the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder decreasing from 848.0 to 842.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for various powders decreased significantly, for example, the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased from 82.0 to 40.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 13.2% to 2675.0 tons, and the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 6.9% to 3324.8 tons. The monthly national import volume increased by 0.6% to 10522.5 tons [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% to 241.0 tons, the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 2.4% to 339.2 tons. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 1.4% to 6979.3 tons, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 2.9% to 7736.9 tons [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 0.9% to 13930.97 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.5% to 9309.4 tons, and the available days of inventory for 64 steel mills increased by 10.0% to 22.0 days [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: For coke, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke decreased by 1.3%. For coking coal, the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal increased by 3.3%, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal increased by 2.6% [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly coke output remained unchanged at 762 tons. The daily average output of full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1% to 66.7 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% to 241.0 tons. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 1.3% to 872.5 tons, and the clean coal output increased by 1.8% to 450.6 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly molten iron output increased by 0.2% to 241.0 tons, and the weekly coke output remained unchanged at 762 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 1.0% to 915.2 tons. The coke inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 2.1% to 66.4 tons, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.8% to 644.7 tons. The coking coal inventory of full - sample coking plants increased by 6.4% to 940.4 tons, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% to 790.3 tons [6]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 6.5% to - 3.3 tons [6].