News Summary Core Viewpoint - The iron ore supply is tightening, with a decrease in port inventories and a slight increase in iron production, but the demand recovery is slow, which may limit the rebound in iron ore prices [2][3]. Group 1: Supply and Inventory - Satellite data indicates that from January 19 to January 25, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 11.689 million tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons week-on-week, slightly below the average level since the beginning of the year [1]. - In the fourth week of January 2026, Brazil shipped a total of 22.4963 million tons of iron ore, compared to 30.8902 million tons in January of the previous year, with an average daily shipment of 1.406 million tons, a slight increase of 0.14% year-on-year [1]. - The total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China during January 19 to January 25, 2026, were 26.255 million tons, a decrease of 2.722 million tons week-on-week [1]. Group 2: Demand and Price Outlook - According to Zhengxin Futures, while iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil have increased week-on-week, arrivals continue to decline, indicating a tightening supply overall. The demand for iron ore has not changed significantly, and the inventory at ports is accumulating, with a slight increase in steel mill replenishment needs [2]. - Donghai Futures reported a slight increase in daily iron production by 0.09 million tons, with the proportion of profitable steel mills rising to over 40%. However, the supply side shows a seasonal effect, with global iron ore shipments increasing by 484,000 tons week-on-week, while arrivals decreased by 1.297 million tons [3].

Market Review - Iron ore futures prices increased, with the main contract closing at 781.5 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 1.9% [1] Fundamental Summary - Satellite data indicates that from December 15 to December 21, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil reached 12.247 million tons, an increase of 527,000 tons month-on-month, showing a slight recovery trend [2] - In the third week of December 2025, Brazil's iron ore shipments totaled 24.725 million tons, down from 30.570 million tons in December of the previous year. The average daily shipment was 1.648 million tons, which is a 13.23% increase compared to 1.456 million tons per day in December of last year [2] - According to customs statistics, China's iron ore and its concentrate imports in November 2025 amounted to 110.54 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.67% but a year-on-year increase of 8.72% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures noted that the emergency response to heavy pollution in North China has been lifted, which may lead to a rebound in iron demand, suggesting a strong price trend for iron ore. Although the supply-demand structure has weakened month-on-month, the decline in demand has shown some improvement, coupled with a rebound in finished product demand, indicating a strong price trend. However, the strength in finished products may not be sustainable, and a price correction is expected [3] - Chaos Tiancheng Futures stated that the current iron ore market supply has slightly decreased. Despite a continued decline in pig iron production, steel mills have low inventory levels and there is an expectation of a rebound in pig iron production in January, leading to a short-term oscillating price trend for iron ore [3]

Market Overview - As of October 24, iron ore port inventory reached 151.09 million tons, an increase of 1.48 million tons compared to the previous trading day [1] - On October 29, national main port iron ore transactions were 951,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.61%; forward spot transactions were 1.23 million tons [2] Company Performance - On October 30, Australian mining company Mineral Resources Limited reported that its total iron ore production for Q3 2025 (first quarter of Australian FY2026) reached 10.90 million tons, with total shipments of 11.40 million tons [1] Institutional Insights - Zhengxin Futures noted an overall improvement in macro sentiment, coupled with better funding for terminal construction sites, leading to a strong rebound in iron ore prices. Despite a slight decline in iron production, demand remains resilient. Port inventory continues to accumulate due to increased arrivals, while steel mill profits have slightly rebounded, accelerating restocking [3] - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures reported that recent steel mill procurement has been active, with strong demand for high-quality ore pushing up spot prices. Although iron production remains high, the significant decrease in supply arrivals has alleviated some supply pressure, leading to a week-on-week decline in port inventory [4]

Market Review - On Thursday evening, iron ore futures for the 2601 contract rose by 0.26%, closing at 775 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - In July, China's iron ore imports totaled 104.62 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.3%, slightly down from the six-month high of 105.95 million tons in June [2] - As of August 8, the total iron ore inventory at 45 national ports was 137.12 million tons, an increase of 543,700 tons from the previous period; the average daily port discharge volume was 3.2185 million tons, up by 191,400 tons [2] - On Thursday, the spot trading volume of iron ore at ports was 1.08 million tons, with the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port quoted at 776 CNY (-4) per ton, and super special powder at 650 CNY (-2) per ton; the price difference between high and low-grade PB powder and super special powder was 126 CNY per ton [2] Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures noted that iron and steel production has declined for two consecutive weeks, and with weak demand, production is expected to decrease further; rumors of production restrictions in northern regions may weaken ore demand [3] - The supply side saw a month-on-month decrease of 1.39 million tons in global iron ore shipments, but due to a three-week increase in late July shipments, the iron ore arrival volume this week rose by 2.673 million tons [3] - CICC Wealth Futures indicated that the current supply-demand structure is stable, and with steel production restrictions not yet implemented, iron ore is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation in the short term [3]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals is experiencing a significant decline, with iron ore futures showing a downward trend and a current price fluctuation between 695.0 and 708.5 CNY/ton, reflecting a drop of approximately 0.50% [1] - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the basic supply and demand dynamics indicate a continued weakening in iron ore demand, with a decrease in iron water production and an increase in domestic iron ore output expected in June, leading to a bearish price outlook [1] - Zhonghui Futures notes that while iron water production is declining, steel mills' profits are still supporting high iron ore demand, but the overall supply-demand structure is neutral to weak, indicating potential pressure on the industrial fundamentals [1] Group 2 - Shenyin Wanguo Futures highlights that despite a decline in iron water production, the speed and extent of this decline are limited due to reasonable profit margins for steel mills, suggesting continued support for iron ore demand [2] - The global iron ore shipments have recently decreased, primarily due to disruptions in Australian shipments, while port inventory is being depleted rapidly, indicating a potential imbalance in supply and demand in the medium term [2] - The outlook for iron ore shipments in the second half of the year is expected to increase significantly, with a focus on monitoring the production progress of steel mills and the ongoing situation regarding steel billet exports [2]

Report Title - Iron Ore Monthly Report: Supply-demand structure weakens, ore prices fluctuate weakly [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In May, the global iron ore supply and demand are both strong, and the static supply and demand are relatively loose. Prices will fluctuate weakly [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - In April, the spot and futures prices fluctuated weakly. As of April 29, the futures price of the main contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton month-on-month [4] Supply Side - The shipments of the four major mines will increase in May, with an estimated month-on-month increase of 625000 tons [5][29][36] - Non-mainstream mines are estimated to ship 40.3 million tons in May, an increase of about 30000 tons [5][32][36] - Domestic mine production is expected to reach 21 million tons in May, a month-on-month increase of 60000 tons [5][35][36] - The overall global supply in May will increase by about 7.15 million tons month-on-month [5][36] Demand Side - Domestically, according to the Steel Union's statistical caliber, the estimated national pig iron output in April was 72.26 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. In May, the blast furnace hot metal output is expected to be 74.4 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.14 million tons. The demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will increase by 3.5 million tons [5][15][21] - Overseas, the daily average pig iron output outside China is generally stable. It is estimated that the pig iron output in May will decrease by about 30000 tons month-on-month, and the demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will decrease by about 50000 tons [5][18][21] - Globally, the demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will increase by about 3 million tons in May [5][21] Steel Mill Conditions - At the end of April, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, a year-on-year increase of 4.60 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a year-on-year increase of 6.07 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a year-on-year increase of 6.93 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4435 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 810 tons [9] - In April, the profitability of long and short process steel mills remained stable, and the production enthusiasm was fair; short process steel mills remained in the red, and the production enthusiasm was not strong [12] Inventory - At the end of April, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 143 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 200 tons. It is expected to accumulate in May [37] - Steel mills replenish inventory on demand, and the inventory fluctuates within a narrow range [39]