混沌天成期货：综合而言，当前铁矿市场供应略有回落，尽管铁水也继续下降，但因钢厂库存水平较低 且1月铁水有回升预期，短期矿价走势偏震荡运行。 2025年12月第3周，共计15个工作日，巴西铁矿石2472.54万吨，去年12月为3057.0万吨。日均装运量为 164.84万吨/日，较去年12月的145.57万吨/日增加13.23%。 海关统计数据在线查询平台公布的数据显示，中国2025年11月铁矿砂及其精矿进口量为110,539,757.24 吨，环比下降0.67%，同比增长8.72%。 三、机构观点 正信期货：华北地区重污染天气应急响应解除，铁矿需求或回升，矿价走势偏强。尽管供需结构环比转 弱，但需求下滑态势有所改善，加上成材需求回升，矿价走势偏强。然而，成材强势难以持续，预计矿 价仍有回调空间。 一、行情回顾 昨日，铁矿石期货价格有所上涨，主力合约收于781.5元/吨，涨幅为1.9%。 二、基本面汇总 卫星数据显示，2025年12月15日-12月21日期间，澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口铁矿石库存总量1224.7 万吨，环比上升52.7万吨，呈小幅回升态势。 ...

Market Overview - As of October 24, iron ore port inventory reached 151.09 million tons, an increase of 1.48 million tons compared to the previous trading day [1] - On October 29, national main port iron ore transactions were 951,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.61%; forward spot transactions were 1.23 million tons [2] Company Performance - On October 30, Australian mining company Mineral Resources Limited reported that its total iron ore production for Q3 2025 (first quarter of Australian FY2026) reached 10.90 million tons, with total shipments of 11.40 million tons [1] Institutional Insights - Zhengxin Futures noted an overall improvement in macro sentiment, coupled with better funding for terminal construction sites, leading to a strong rebound in iron ore prices. Despite a slight decline in iron production, demand remains resilient. Port inventory continues to accumulate due to increased arrivals, while steel mill profits have slightly rebounded, accelerating restocking [3] - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures reported that recent steel mill procurement has been active, with strong demand for high-quality ore pushing up spot prices. Although iron production remains high, the significant decrease in supply arrivals has alleviated some supply pressure, leading to a week-on-week decline in port inventory [4]

Market Review - On Thursday evening, iron ore futures for the 2601 contract rose by 0.26%, closing at 775 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - In July, China's iron ore imports totaled 104.62 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.3%, slightly down from the six-month high of 105.95 million tons in June [2] - As of August 8, the total iron ore inventory at 45 national ports was 137.12 million tons, an increase of 543,700 tons from the previous period; the average daily port discharge volume was 3.2185 million tons, up by 191,400 tons [2] - On Thursday, the spot trading volume of iron ore at ports was 1.08 million tons, with the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port quoted at 776 CNY (-4) per ton, and super special powder at 650 CNY (-2) per ton; the price difference between high and low-grade PB powder and super special powder was 126 CNY per ton [2] Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures noted that iron and steel production has declined for two consecutive weeks, and with weak demand, production is expected to decrease further; rumors of production restrictions in northern regions may weaken ore demand [3] - The supply side saw a month-on-month decrease of 1.39 million tons in global iron ore shipments, but due to a three-week increase in late July shipments, the iron ore arrival volume this week rose by 2.673 million tons [3] - CICC Wealth Futures indicated that the current supply-demand structure is stable, and with steel production restrictions not yet implemented, iron ore is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation in the short term [3]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals is experiencing a significant decline, with iron ore futures showing a downward trend and a current price fluctuation between 695.0 and 708.5 CNY/ton, reflecting a drop of approximately 0.50% [1] - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the basic supply and demand dynamics indicate a continued weakening in iron ore demand, with a decrease in iron water production and an increase in domestic iron ore output expected in June, leading to a bearish price outlook [1] - Zhonghui Futures notes that while iron water production is declining, steel mills' profits are still supporting high iron ore demand, but the overall supply-demand structure is neutral to weak, indicating potential pressure on the industrial fundamentals [1] Group 2 - Shenyin Wanguo Futures highlights that despite a decline in iron water production, the speed and extent of this decline are limited due to reasonable profit margins for steel mills, suggesting continued support for iron ore demand [2] - The global iron ore shipments have recently decreased, primarily due to disruptions in Australian shipments, while port inventory is being depleted rapidly, indicating a potential imbalance in supply and demand in the medium term [2] - The outlook for iron ore shipments in the second half of the year is expected to increase significantly, with a focus on monitoring the production progress of steel mills and the ongoing situation regarding steel billet exports [2]

Report Title - Iron Ore Monthly Report: Supply-demand structure weakens, ore prices fluctuate weakly [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In May, the global iron ore supply and demand are both strong, and the static supply and demand are relatively loose. Prices will fluctuate weakly [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - In April, the spot and futures prices fluctuated weakly. As of April 29, the futures price of the main contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton month-on-month [4] Supply Side - The shipments of the four major mines will increase in May, with an estimated month-on-month increase of 625000 tons [5][29][36] - Non-mainstream mines are estimated to ship 40.3 million tons in May, an increase of about 30000 tons [5][32][36] - Domestic mine production is expected to reach 21 million tons in May, a month-on-month increase of 60000 tons [5][35][36] - The overall global supply in May will increase by about 7.15 million tons month-on-month [5][36] Demand Side - Domestically, according to the Steel Union's statistical caliber, the estimated national pig iron output in April was 72.26 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. In May, the blast furnace hot metal output is expected to be 74.4 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.14 million tons. The demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will increase by 3.5 million tons [5][15][21] - Overseas, the daily average pig iron output outside China is generally stable. It is estimated that the pig iron output in May will decrease by about 30000 tons month-on-month, and the demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will decrease by about 50000 tons [5][18][21] - Globally, the demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will increase by about 3 million tons in May [5][21] Steel Mill Conditions - At the end of April, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, a year-on-year increase of 4.60 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a year-on-year increase of 6.07 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a year-on-year increase of 6.93 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4435 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 810 tons [9] - In April, the profitability of long and short process steel mills remained stable, and the production enthusiasm was fair; short process steel mills remained in the red, and the production enthusiasm was not strong [12] Inventory - At the end of April, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 143 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 200 tons. It is expected to accumulate in May [37] - Steel mills replenish inventory on demand, and the inventory fluctuates within a narrow range [39]