目前来看，铁矿石行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于铁矿石后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 2月5日，国内期市黑色金属板块跌多涨少。其中，铁矿石期货主力合约开盘报779.5元/吨，今日盘中低 位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，铁矿石主力最高触及779.5元，下方探低764.0元，跌幅达2.05%。 正信期货指出，昨日小样本数据显示钢厂加速减产，铁矿需求增量不足，矿价弱势回调延续。本周澳巴 发运环比回升，到港略有增加，但供应增量偏平。总体供应环比略有回升；需求方面，铁水产量变化不 大，铁矿终端需求环比变动不明显；库存来看，疏港量止跌回升，港口库存继续累积，钢厂补库需求提 前释放，库存环比继续增加。综合来看，近期铁矿供需结构变化不明显，盘面一方面交易钢厂提前补库 支撑矿价、一方面受到钢材走弱压制，整体价格仍维持弱势回调结构。考虑到成材拖累效果延续，以及 钢厂提前补库对于后续需求的透支效果，预计矿价仍有回调空间。 国元期货表示，近期铁矿价格震荡偏弱。1月下旬，宏观情绪释放，黑色板价格回归基本面。终端需求 偏弱，钢厂复产谨慎，铁水产量难增。上游库存持续累库，压制矿价反弹空间。 国都期货分析称，消息面，央行信贷 ...

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，矿价承压运行 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局持续走弱，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗回落，而钢厂盈利状况改善有限，叠加 淡季钢市矛盾累积，矿石需求仍将弱势运行，利好因素则是节前钢厂补库。与此同时，国内港口到货 高位回落，而矿商发运持续减量， ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for black metals shows mixed performance, with iron ore futures experiencing a downward trend and potential supply surplus looming in the near future [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Iron ore futures opened at 777.0 CNY/ton, fluctuating between a high of 777.5 CNY and a low of 757.0 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.94% [1]. - The overall market performance for iron ore is weak, indicating a bearish sentiment among traders [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Guangjin Futures highlights long-term bearish factors due to upcoming production from projects in Guinea and West Africa, coupled with uncertain growth prospects for downstream steel demand [1]. - Hengtai Futures notes an increase in external ore shipments and a high level of pig iron production, which provides some support for actual iron ore demand, while port inventories are being depleted [2]. - Guoxin Guozheng Futures reports a decrease in iron ore shipments compared to the previous period, with a significant increase in domestic arrivals, and a notable reduction in pig iron production due to declining steel mill profitability and stricter environmental regulations [2]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Guangjin Futures warns of potential market trading ahead of negative news, suggesting that the iron ore market may enter a phase of oversupply by January next year [1]. - Hengtai Futures advises traders to look for buying opportunities in the iron ore 01 contract after price stabilization, while emphasizing the need for careful position management due to increased market volatility [2].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for black metals is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in iron ore prices, which are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Iron ore futures opened at 801.0 CNY/ton and showed a decline, with a maximum of 801.5 CNY and a minimum of 778.0 CNY, resulting in a drop of 2.07% [1]. - The overall performance of iron ore is characterized by weak market sentiment and a downward oscillation [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - According to Galaxy Futures, the supply side remains high while domestic demand is weakening, leading to increased iron ore supply and reduced demand, which is expected to keep prices under pressure [1]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) noted that global shipments are at high levels, while domestic arrivals are decreasing, contributing to a continuous increase in port inventories [1]. - The demand side shows a significant decline in iron and steel production, with steel mills reaching new lows in profitability, indicating potential further production cuts and weakened support for iron ore prices [1][2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Recommendations - The real estate sector's performance remains poor, with weak sales and construction data, while steel exports show resilience but face trade protection challenges from some countries [2]. - The central bank's moderately loose monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle contribute to market volatility [2]. - Investment advice suggests holding short positions in the current market environment [2].

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures prices have shown signs of rebound after five consecutive days of decline, with the main contract rising by 0.65% to 773.5 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Market Inventory and Shipping Data - China's total iron ore inventory at 47 ports reached 150.65 million tons, an increase of 3.40 million tons compared to the previous week [2] - During the period from October 13 to October 19, iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 1.17 million tons, reaching a six-month low [2] - Global iron ore shipments totaled 33.34 million tons, an increase of 1.26 million tons week-on-week, with Australia and Brazil contributing 28.25 million tons, up by 0.94 million tons [2] Future Market Outlook - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, iron ore prices are currently weak, but steel mills maintain production due to strong demand driven by profits, with iron water output recovering to previous levels [3] - Galaxy Futures suggests that while domestic steel demand may recover in Q4, the market is currently affected by weakening terminal demand, leading to increased iron ore inventory and overall supply [3] - Nanhua Futures indicates that although short-term price valuations are low due to widening basis, there is insufficient upward momentum, with future market direction dependent on policy signals and potential domestic demand stimulus [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for black metals shows mixed performance, with iron ore futures experiencing a downward trend after a post-holiday rise driven by sentiment and expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Iron ore futures opened at 784.0 CNY/ton, with intraday fluctuations leading to a high of 787.5 CNY and a low of 774.5 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.27% [1] - The overall market performance for iron ore is characterized by weak trading conditions and a downward trend [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guodu Futures indicates that the iron ore price increase driven by sentiment has ended, with the market returning to a bearish supply-demand logic, suggesting a short-term weak price outlook and recommending light positions while monitoring policy changes [1] - Yide Futures notes a slight decline in iron ore prices, attributing it to slow supply release from Ximangdu and contrasting views on production cuts and speculative buying, while highlighting that high supply pressure and weak steel demand are suppressing prices [1] - Hundun Tiancai Futures analyzes the supply-demand fundamentals as showing reduced supply and stable demand, with decreasing iron ore inventories at steel mills but high steel inventories leading to negative feedback, predicting continued weak price fluctuations in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals is experiencing a downward trend, with iron ore futures showing a decline of 1.74% as of the latest trading session [1] - Steel mills have resumed production, leading to strong demand for iron ore driven by profit incentives, with iron water output returning to previous levels [1] - Global iron ore shipments have recently decreased, particularly due to disruptions in Australian shipments, while port inventory is being depleted rapidly [1] Group 2 - Despite a rebound in iron ore imports and domestic production in the second quarter, the year-on-year decline in the first eight months remains unchanged [2] - The absolute amount of iron ore port inventory is lower than the same period last year, indicating a supportive supply-demand balance for prices in the short term [2] - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut has improved market sentiment, and the combination of steel mill production resumption and pre-holiday inventory replenishment is expected to lead to a strong oscillation in iron ore prices [2]

Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs provides a Q3 iron ore market outlook based on the July Politburo meeting and "anti-involution" fundamentals [1] Industry Focus - The report focuses on the iron ore market [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals shows a predominantly positive trend, with iron ore futures experiencing fluctuations around 700.0 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 708.0 CNY and a low of 699.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.14% [1] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures indicates a slight increase in port inventory, suggesting a slightly loose supply due to a rise in overseas shipments and arrivals, which are at the highest level for the same period in the last three years [1] - Demand from steel mills is weakening as maintenance and shutdowns increase during the off-season, leading to a continued decline in molten iron production [1] Group 2 - Zhongcai Futures analyzes that the overall supply of iron ore is strong while demand is weak, with an increase in shipments and arrivals expected to lead to a loose supply situation [1] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to continue declining as steel mills operate based on demand, indicating a weakening demand side [1] - Despite high port inventories, the high daily consumption of molten iron is expected to provide short-term support for iron ore prices, maintaining a view of weak fluctuations [2]