美豆大涨创新高，豆粕库存缓解 2025年11月18日 （2）国内大豆进口回落，油厂大豆到港回落。10月国内进口大豆948万吨，环比下降26%，同比增加17.2%。中美贸 易协议下进口美豆将恢复常态。中美已相互降税，但保留10%基本关税，因此美豆进口成本仍高于南美大豆。国内大豆 供应充足。据钢联：截至11月14日，油厂大豆到港量为182万吨，环比回落；港口大豆库存为992.6万吨，环比回落，仍 在高位。 （3）美豆大涨创近年新高。美农11月供需报告调减美豆单产及总产，期末库存调减；南美产量未调整；全球期末 库存进一步调减。美农报告数据偏多，但盘面先跌后涨。叠加中美贸易协定。美豆有望继续走高。 （4）油厂开机率回升，豆粕库存再落。油厂榨利回落，因巴豆成本高。据钢联数据：截至11月14日，油厂开机率 为57.15%，环比回升；大豆压榨量为207.76万吨，环比回升；油厂大豆库存为747.71万吨，环比回落。豆粕产量为 164.1万吨，环比回升；油厂豆粕库存为99.29万吨，环比微落；豆粕未执行合同为535.07万吨，环比回落。饲料厂 豆粕库存天数为8.23天，环比回升。 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Technology Index has experienced significant declines, with a drop of over 1,000 points in just over a month, indicating a bearish trend in the Hong Kong stock market [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell to 5,651 points, with the Hang Seng Index dipping below the critical support level of 25,500 points [1] - Trading volume has been low, with transactions falling below 2,500 million HKD on November 3 and 4 [1] - Historical data suggests that the indices often experience technical rebounds when approaching the 100-day moving average levels [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the adjustment phase of the Hong Kong stock market may be nearing its end, with expectations of a continued volatile market [1] - The performance of major technology companies' Q3 reports in mid to late November will be crucial for market recovery [2] - External factors such as the execution of the US-China trade agreement and developments in tariffs and port service fees will influence market sentiment [2] - There is a strong motivation among institutions to boost positions and lock in performance before year-end, which could support the indices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for black metals is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in iron ore prices, which are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Iron ore futures opened at 801.0 CNY/ton and showed a decline, with a maximum of 801.5 CNY and a minimum of 778.0 CNY, resulting in a drop of 2.07% [1]. - The overall performance of iron ore is characterized by weak market sentiment and a downward oscillation [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - According to Galaxy Futures, the supply side remains high while domestic demand is weakening, leading to increased iron ore supply and reduced demand, which is expected to keep prices under pressure [1]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) noted that global shipments are at high levels, while domestic arrivals are decreasing, contributing to a continuous increase in port inventories [1]. - The demand side shows a significant decline in iron and steel production, with steel mills reaching new lows in profitability, indicating potential further production cuts and weakened support for iron ore prices [1][2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Recommendations - The real estate sector's performance remains poor, with weak sales and construction data, while steel exports show resilience but face trade protection challenges from some countries [2]. - The central bank's moderately loose monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle contribute to market volatility [2]. - Investment advice suggests holding short positions in the current market environment [2].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market is currently at a critical point after surpassing 4000 points, with various brokerages providing insights on future trends and strategies [9] - The State Council is focusing on deepening reforms and expanding institutional openness, which may influence market dynamics [1] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that a U.S.-China trade agreement could be signed as early as next week, with China expressing a willingness to enhance cooperation in economic and trade relations [2] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry - The Ministry of Commerce stated that it will consider exemptions for exports related to Anshi Semiconductor, highlighting the impact of external interventions on global supply chains [3] Group 4: Fund Management Regulations - A draft guideline for public fund performance benchmarks has been released, emphasizing the responsibility of fund managers and introducing five key requirements for performance evaluation and accountability [4] Group 5: Gold Tax Policy - The Ministry of Finance announced a tax policy for gold transactions, exempting value-added tax for certain transactions, which may affect trading dynamics in the gold market [5] Group 6: Company Financials - Cambricon Technologies is facing a lawsuit from a former key technical staff member claiming compensation for stock incentive losses amounting to 4.287 billion yuan, which could have implications for the company's financial health [6] - Berkshire Hathaway reported a net profit of $30.796 billion for Q3 2025, exceeding market expectations, with a cash reserve reaching $381.67 billion [7] - Vanke has secured a loan framework agreement with Shenzhen Metro Group for up to 22 billion yuan, which may enhance its liquidity position [8] Group 7: Brokerage Insights - Citic Securities suggests focusing on structural opportunities in traditional manufacturing, overseas expansion, and AI sectors, while being cautious about market timing [10] - Cinda Securities emphasizes the importance of fund allocation strategies in bull markets, noting historical patterns of fund over-allocation to leading sectors [16] - Galaxy Securities highlights the positive outlook for the A-share market due to favorable macro policies and resilient corporate earnings, despite a potential short-term adjustment phase [17]

Core Insights - U.S. soybean farmers are facing significant financial losses due to Trump's tariff policies, which have resulted in a lack of orders from China, a major customer [1] - The American Soybean Association reported that the overall tariff rate on U.S. soybeans by China reached 34% in August, severely impacting market competitiveness [1] - There is increasing pressure within the U.S. agricultural sector to reach a trade agreement with China to secure crop sales, as the absence of orders during the harvest season is a major blow to farmers [1] Group 1 - U.S. soybean farmers typically secure about 14% of their expected import volume from China before the harvest season, but this year has seen a significant absence of orders [1] - Since the 2021-22 marketing year, one-quarter of U.S. soybean production has been exported to China, with this figure peaking at 31% after the Phase One trade agreement [1] - Many U.S. farmers believe that the Chinese market is irreplaceable in the short term, and failure to reach a trade agreement could jeopardize their livelihoods for years to come [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government plans to provide financial assistance to farmers if conditions do not improve, but there is no clear timeline or specific amount announced by the Secretary of Agriculture [2] - Officials have suggested that the U.S. needs a more open market and global competitiveness, claiming that U.S. soybeans are of higher quality than those from Brazil [2] - However, the second-largest buyer, the European Union, accounts for less than one-fifth of China's demand, making it insufficient to fill the gap left by China [2] - Brazil supplied 71% of China's soybean imports last year, up from 53% in 2017, indicating a shift in China's sourcing strategy [2] - A farmer from Iowa expressed skepticism about China's willingness to purchase U.S. soybeans unless a miraculous change occurs [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. market, trade relations with China, and the implications for the Middle East, particularly in the context of high-end technology and products. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Reactions to Trade Agreements** Following significant trade agreements between the U.S. and China, there was an unexpected market downturn, which may present a short-term trading opportunity. The subsequent recovery indicates potential for continued upward movement, heavily influenced by U.S. policy shifts [1] 2. **U.S. High-End Products in the Middle East** The U.S. aims to integrate high-end products and services into the Middle East, with a notable easing of restrictions on high-end chips, previously tightly controlled during the Biden administration. This shift coincides with Trump's visit to the region, accompanied by top tech executives, indicating a strategic push [2] 3. **China's Access to High-End Technology** The opening of the Middle East market could allow China greater access to advanced products and technologies, although the U.S. government remains cautious and has issued warnings against the use of Huawei's chips, indicating a complex regulatory environment [3] 4. **U.S. Inflation Data** Recent data shows the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April at a historic low of 2.3%, close to the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0%. This low inflation rate raises questions about potential interest rate cuts by the Fed [4] 5. **Market Stability Concerns** The U.S. financial markets experienced significant downturns recently, with U.S. Treasury bonds, stocks, and the dollar index all declining. While some assets have stabilized, concerns remain about the ongoing low performance of U.S. Treasuries [5][6] 6. **Hong Kong Market Outlook** The Hong Kong market, closely linked to overseas assets, is expected to enter a period of recovery, with a notable increase in the financial sector, particularly insurance, which saw gains exceeding 4% [7] 7. **Domestic Market Performance** The domestic market showed signs of recovery, albeit with modest gains compared to Hong Kong. The trading volume remained stable at approximately 1.3 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of significant market excitement [8] 8. **Investment Sentiment** In the recovery phase, sectors with higher volatility and risk, particularly technology, are expected to outperform. The market sentiment is gradually improving, suggesting a potential upward trend in the tech sector [9] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call also mentioned promotional offers for subscription renewals, indicating ongoing engagement with the audience and potential for increased customer retention [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent claims made by Trump regarding a trade agreement between China and the United States, highlighting discrepancies between his statements and the actual situation [1][2][4]. Group 1: Agreement Details - Trump announced that China and the U.S. have reached a trade agreement, pending approval from both countries, which includes China supplying rare earths and the U.S. allowing Chinese students to enter American universities [1]. - The Chinese side clarified that what was achieved is a "framework agreement," indicating a general intention to cooperate rather than a finalized deal, suggesting further negotiations are needed [2]. Group 2: Tariff Discrepancies - Trump's claim of a 55% tariff imposed by the U.S. is questioned, as it does not align with the Geneva consensus, which suggests a maximum of 30%, and even with previous tariffs, it would not reach 55% [4]. - The article points out that China's tariffs are not uniformly set at 10% but range between 10% and 25%, indicating inaccuracies in Trump's statements [4]. Group 3: Political Implications - The article suggests that Trump's statements may be an attempt to rally his voter base by showcasing a perceived achievement, especially as he has not fulfilled many of his campaign promises [4].