1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end of the US government shutdown and the expected tight supply of copper mines support copper prices. The end of the US government shutdown may lead to an expansion of the fiscal deficit, and the Fed's halt to balance - sheet reduction or even start of balance - sheet expansion will ease the tightness of monetary liquidity. The partial resumption of production at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is unlikely to change the tight supply - demand outlook. As a result, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when the price drops, and pay attention to specific support and pressure levels for Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [3]. - For the spread and inventory situation, due to factors such as the tight supply of global copper concentrates, the increase in the operating capacity of the copper processing industry, the hawkish shift in the Fed's future interest - rate cut expectations, and the decrease in the maintenance capacity of domestic copper smelters in November, it is recommended that investors temporarily observe the arbitrage opportunities in the basis and spread of Shanghai copper and LME copper [9][10]. - In terms of the mid - upstream supply, multiple factors such as the performance of overseas mines, the change in scrap copper supply, and the adjustment of smelter maintenance plans will affect the production and import of copper concentrates, scrap copper, blister copper, anode plates, and electrolytic copper in November [27][30][33][37]. - Regarding the downstream demand, the capacity utilization rates of various copper products in the downstream, such as copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper plates and strips, copper tubes, and brass rods, have generally increased recently. The capacity utilization rates of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper plates and strips, and copper foils in November may increase month - on - month, while those of copper tubes and brass rods may decrease month - on - month [42][55][59][69][75][78]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - **Spread**: Shanghai copper basis is positive and within a reasonable range, and the month - spread is negative and within a reasonable range. LME copper (0 - 3) contract spread is negative and within a reasonable range, (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and within a reasonable range. COMEX copper near - far month contract spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The spreads between LME copper and Shanghai copper, COMEX copper and Shanghai copper, and COMEX copper and LME copper are positive and within a reasonable range. It is recommended to temporarily observe the arbitrage opportunities [9][10][12]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area and social inventory decreased compared with last week, while the inventory of LME electrolytic copper and COMEX copper increased compared with last week. The non - commercial long - to - short position ratio of COMEX copper decreased month - on - month [18][19]. Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - **Copper Concentrate**: The production and import of domestic copper concentrates in November may increase month - on - month. The copper concentrate import index is negative and higher than last week. The port copper concentrate inventory in China increased compared with last week [27]. - **Scrap Copper**: The domestic scrap copper production and import in November may increase month - on - month, and the supply - demand outlook is tight. The domestic refined - scrap spread is positive, which may boost the economy of scrap copper [30]. - **Blister Copper**: The domestic blister copper production in November may increase month - on - month, and the import may decrease month - on - month. The weekly processing fees of blister copper in northern and southern China were flat and increased respectively compared with last week [33]. - **Anode Plate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic scrap - produced anode plates increased compared with last week, and the processing fee was flat compared with last week [36]. - **Electrolytic Copper**: The domestic electrolytic copper production and import in November may increase month - on - month [38]. Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - **Copper Rod**: The capacity utilization rates of domestic refined and recycled copper rods increased compared with last week. The raw material and finished - product inventories of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export of domestic copper product enterprises in November may increase month - on - month [42][44]. - **Copper Wires and Cables**: The capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week, and the raw material inventory increased while the finished - product inventory decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may increase month - on - month [57][62]. - **Copper Enameled Wires**: The order volume and capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week, and the raw material inventory days increased while the finished - product inventory days decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may increase month - on - month [61][62]. - **Copper Plates and Strips**: The weekly processing fee decreased, the capacity utilization rate and production increased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may increase month - on - month [63][69]. - **Copper Tubes**: The capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may decrease month - on - month [75][79]. - **Brass Rods**: The capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may decrease month - on - month [78][79].

Core Insights - Copper prices have rapidly declined, dropping over 1% in a single day, raising questions about the impact of U.S.-China trade agreement expectations on the market [1] - Analysts are examining whether changes in inventory levels could serve as a key factor in supporting copper prices [1] Group 1 - The rapid decline in copper prices indicates market volatility and potential shifts in demand or supply dynamics [1] - The expectations surrounding the U.S.-China trade agreement are influencing market sentiment and could affect future pricing trends [1] - Inventory changes are being closely monitored as they may provide critical support for copper prices amid fluctuating market conditions [1]