2026 年 03 月 11 日 铜：国内现货贴水收窄，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 宏观方面，伊朗称不会相信美国的任何承诺、"军事行动进入全新阶段"，美放风护航后删帖，特朗普警 告伊勿布雷。特朗普：有可能有条件同伊朗谈判！美防长称发起"最高强度"打击！伊议长：绝不寻求停火。 （华尔街见闻） 中国 2 月以美元计价出口同比增 39.6%，进口同比增 13.8%，增速重回两位数。（华尔街见闻） 产业方面，随着关税和数据中心需求激增提高美国铜制造商收入，Revere 铜产品公司正在加大美国投 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 101,520 | 1.33% | 101860 | 0.33% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,097 | 1.34% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper sector in the non-ferrous metals industry is "oscillating bullish" [1] Core View - In the context of negative year-on-year PPI in China, the month-on-month PPI of the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry has significantly rebounded, and the year-on-year growth has remained positive, which strongly supports the copper price. Although the US government has ended the longest federal government shutdown in history, the US White House may not release the October CPI and employment data, and many FOMC voters have publicly expressed their reservations about further interest rate cuts, which intensifies the uncertainty of the policy path. It is expected that the price of Shanghai copper futures this week will remain in the range of 85,000 - 89,000 yuan, and the oscillation range may widen [1] Summary by Related Catalog Market Review - The night - session closing price of the main Shanghai copper contract CU2601 was 87,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05% compared with the previous night - session closing price. The night - session closing price of the second - main Shanghai copper contract CU2602 was 87,080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. As of 06:00 Beijing time, the closing price of the COMEX copper main contract was 5.1155 US dollars/pound (converted to 79,852 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 7.0806), and the market was closed for Thanksgiving. The LME copper main contract CA03ME closed at 10,930 US dollars/ton (converted to 77,391 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 7.0806), a decrease of 0.21% [1] Important Information - From January to October, the operating income of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 14.2% year - on - year, and the total profit increased by 14.0% year - on - year [1] - On November 26, the Canadian Minister of Industry Melanie Joly said that Canada has launched a national security review of the proposed merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, focusing on evaluating the impact of the transaction on critical minerals and related supply chains [1] - On November 26, Jiangxi Copper's general manager Zhou Shaobing said at the performance briefing that the decline in copper smelting processing fees is related to the shortage of copper concentrates. Currently, the domestic TC (smelting fee) spot purchase price has fallen to a new low in recent years and is expected to remain at a low level [1] - On November 21, Jiangxi Copper's Guixi Smelter's cathode copper production successfully passed the national intelligent manufacturing capability maturity (CMMM) level - 4 assessment, becoming the only enterprise in the national non - ferrous metal industry to obtain CMMM level - 4 certification [1] - On November 24, Jintian Co., Ltd. said on the interactive platform that its high - precision special - shaped oxygen - free copper bar products have been applied to the top - level GPU cooling solutions of many first - tier global cooling module enterprises [1] Trading Strategy - There is no trading strategy provided in the report [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end of the US government shutdown and the expected tight supply of copper mines support copper prices. The end of the US government shutdown may lead to an expansion of the fiscal deficit, and the Fed's halt to balance - sheet reduction or even start of balance - sheet expansion will ease the tightness of monetary liquidity. The partial resumption of production at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is unlikely to change the tight supply - demand outlook. As a result, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when the price drops, and pay attention to specific support and pressure levels for Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [3]. - For the spread and inventory situation, due to factors such as the tight supply of global copper concentrates, the increase in the operating capacity of the copper processing industry, the hawkish shift in the Fed's future interest - rate cut expectations, and the decrease in the maintenance capacity of domestic copper smelters in November, it is recommended that investors temporarily observe the arbitrage opportunities in the basis and spread of Shanghai copper and LME copper [9][10]. - In terms of the mid - upstream supply, multiple factors such as the performance of overseas mines, the change in scrap copper supply, and the adjustment of smelter maintenance plans will affect the production and import of copper concentrates, scrap copper, blister copper, anode plates, and electrolytic copper in November [27][30][33][37]. - Regarding the downstream demand, the capacity utilization rates of various copper products in the downstream, such as copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper plates and strips, copper tubes, and brass rods, have generally increased recently. The capacity utilization rates of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper plates and strips, and copper foils in November may increase month - on - month, while those of copper tubes and brass rods may decrease month - on - month [42][55][59][69][75][78]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - **Spread**: Shanghai copper basis is positive and within a reasonable range, and the month - spread is negative and within a reasonable range. LME copper (0 - 3) contract spread is negative and within a reasonable range, (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and within a reasonable range. COMEX copper near - far month contract spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The spreads between LME copper and Shanghai copper, COMEX copper and Shanghai copper, and COMEX copper and LME copper are positive and within a reasonable range. It is recommended to temporarily observe the arbitrage opportunities [9][10][12]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area and social inventory decreased compared with last week, while the inventory of LME electrolytic copper and COMEX copper increased compared with last week. The non - commercial long - to - short position ratio of COMEX copper decreased month - on - month [18][19]. Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - **Copper Concentrate**: The production and import of domestic copper concentrates in November may increase month - on - month. The copper concentrate import index is negative and higher than last week. The port copper concentrate inventory in China increased compared with last week [27]. - **Scrap Copper**: The domestic scrap copper production and import in November may increase month - on - month, and the supply - demand outlook is tight. The domestic refined - scrap spread is positive, which may boost the economy of scrap copper [30]. - **Blister Copper**: The domestic blister copper production in November may increase month - on - month, and the import may decrease month - on - month. The weekly processing fees of blister copper in northern and southern China were flat and increased respectively compared with last week [33]. - **Anode Plate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic scrap - produced anode plates increased compared with last week, and the processing fee was flat compared with last week [36]. - **Electrolytic Copper**: The domestic electrolytic copper production and import in November may increase month - on - month [38]. Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - **Copper Rod**: The capacity utilization rates of domestic refined and recycled copper rods increased compared with last week. The raw material and finished - product inventories of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export of domestic copper product enterprises in November may increase month - on - month [42][44]. - **Copper Wires and Cables**: The capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week, and the raw material inventory increased while the finished - product inventory decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may increase month - on - month [57][62]. - **Copper Enameled Wires**: The order volume and capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week, and the raw material inventory days increased while the finished - product inventory days decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may increase month - on - month [61][62]. - **Copper Plates and Strips**: The weekly processing fee decreased, the capacity utilization rate and production increased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may increase month - on - month [63][69]. - **Copper Tubes**: The capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may decrease month - on - month [75][79]. - **Brass Rods**: The capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may decrease month - on - month [78][79].

Core Insights - Copper prices have rapidly declined, dropping over 1% in a single day, raising questions about the impact of U.S.-China trade agreement expectations on the market [1] - Analysts are examining whether changes in inventory levels could serve as a key factor in supporting copper prices [1] Group 1 - The rapid decline in copper prices indicates market volatility and potential shifts in demand or supply dynamics [1] - The expectations surrounding the U.S.-China trade agreement are influencing market sentiment and could affect future pricing trends [1] - Inventory changes are being closely monitored as they may provide critical support for copper prices amid fluctuating market conditions [1]