重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；偏多。 2、基差：现货101445，基差-4055， 贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：2月3日铜库存增1450至176125吨，上期所铜库存较上周增7067吨至233004吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，目前高位 波动，注意仓位控制 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Microscopically, there is a long - term bullish view on copper, with a strong price trend. However, increased macro - level disturbance factors lead to greater price fluctuations. The macro situation includes the US December non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations, the unemployment rate increase hitting a new low since 2020, and the market expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026, with the probability of a January rate cut at zero and the first cut expected in June. The US Supreme Court has not announced a verdict on Trump's tariffs, and the next ruling will be on January 14. China's December CPI year - on - year increase reached a 34 - month high, and PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months [7]. - Fundamentally, the short - term domestic spot driving logic has temporarily weakened, while the overseas spot logic remains strong. The global copper inventory increased this week, with a significant increase in social inventory. As of January 8, 2026, the global total inventory was 950,300 tons, an increase of 44,900 tons from January 1. The domestic social inventory increased by 39,400 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 15,300 tons. The domestic spot discount has narrowed to 45 yuan/ton, indicating that the decline in price has led to a rebound in downstream demand. The LME 0 - 3 premium has expanded from $38.60/ton on January 2 to $41.94/ton on January 9 [7]. - In the long term, the fundamentals still support the copper price. The port inventory of copper concentrates has continued to decline, dropping rapidly from 680,000 tons on December 26 to 428,000 tons on January 9. The long - term TC for imported copper concentrates in China in 2026 is $0/ton, significantly lower than the 2025 level, which indicates a tight supply of copper concentrates. China is preventing blind investment and disorderly construction in smelters and encouraging large backbone enterprises to implement mergers and reorganizations to improve industrial competitiveness, which may also lead to structural changes in the smelting industry. From the consumption side, the long - term consumption recovery expectation remains strong, and the consumption logic of emerging industries such as AI computing centers is constantly strengthening. Giants like OpenAI and Microsoft are increasing infrastructure investment, and many places in the US are promoting gigawatt - scale cluster projects, with single - project investment exceeding $10 billion, focusing on the deployment of high - density liquid - cooling technology. At the same time, local US governments are attracting investment through incentive policies such as tax exemptions and fee - for - tax deductions. However, policy uncertainties brought about by the mid - term elections and the Fed's leadership change may affect the industry's investment rhythm and implementation process. In addition, new energy vehicles and global power grid upgrades remain the core driving forces, and power grid renovations in Europe and the US and the expansion of the manufacturing industry in Southeast Asia continue to contribute to the increase [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, the short - term rigid replenishment of downstream enterprises provides a bottom support for prices. Based on the long - term positive fundamentals, the idea of buying copper on dips remains unchanged. Currently, the price fluctuates greatly, so it is particularly important to find a good safety margin for buying. In terms of spread trading, the current profit margin for spot exports has narrowed, so be cautious with internal - external reverse arbitrage [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: The volatility of LME, SHFE, INE, and COMEX copper has expanded. The LME copper price volatility is around 20%, and the SHFE copper volatility has reached about 25%, showing a significant rebound from the previous week [13]. - **Term Spread**: The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened marginally. The spread between SHFE 01 - 02 contracts was - 200 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026, lower than 560 yuan/ton on December 31. The LME copper spot premium has expanded, with the LME 0 - 3 premium reaching $41.94/ton on January 9, higher than $38.60/ton on January 2. The near - end C structure of COMEX copper has expanded, with the price spread between the February and March 2026 contracts being - $68.34/ton on January 9, significantly wider than - $55.12/ton on January 2 [20]. - **Position**: The positions of SHFE and INE copper have increased, with the SHFE copper position increasing by 63,900 lots to 681,600 lots, while the LME copper position has decreased [21]. - **Fund and Industry Positions**: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased, from 77,500 lots on December 24 to 72,600 lots on January 2. The net long position of CFTC non - commercial enterprises has decreased from 59,800 lots on December 30 to 57,900 lots on January 6 [27]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper spot discount has narrowed, from a discount of 190 yuan/ton on December 31 to a discount of 45 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026. The Yangshan Port copper premium has declined, from $51/ton on December 31 to $42/ton on January 9. The US copper premium has remained at a high level. The Rotterdam copper premium has increased from $185/ton on January 2 to $200/ton on January 9, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has remained at $187.5/ton [34]. - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory has increased, from 905,500 tons on January 1, 2026, to 950,300 tons on January 8. The domestic social inventory has increased, from 238,900 tons on January 1 to 273,800 tons on January 8, reaching a high level in the same period of history. The bonded area inventory has increased from 75,500 tons on December 31 to 78,800 tons on January 8. The COMEX inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period of history, rising from 499,800 short tons on January 2 to 518,000 short tons on January 9. The LME copper inventory has decreased, from 155,300 tons on January 2 to 139,000 tons on January 9 [38]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE copper 02 contract has declined and is at a low level in the same period of history. The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has fluctuated, indicating that the overseas spot lacks a driving logic [39]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrates**: The import of copper concentrates has increased year - on - year. According to customs data, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November 2025 were 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 12.55%. The port inventory of copper concentrates has decreased, from 496,000 tons on January 2 to 428,000 tons on January 9. The processing fee for copper concentrates has remained weak, and the smelting loss has decreased from 1,988 yuan/ton on December 31 to 2,016 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026 [45]. - **Recycled Copper**: The import of recycled copper has increased. In November, the import of recycled copper was 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.94%. In September, the domestic production of recycled copper was 97,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.85%. The price difference between refined and recycled copper has expanded and is higher than the break - even point, and the import loss of recycled copper has turned into a profit [46][51]. - **Blister Copper**: The import of blister copper has increased month - on - month. In November, the import was 58,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. In December, the processing fee for blister copper has recovered, with the southern processing fee at 1,500 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at $95/ton [55]. - **Refined Copper**: The domestic production of refined copper has increased year - on - year. In November, the production was 1.1031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 12.2545 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.76%. It is expected that the production in December will be 1.0955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69%. The import volume of refined copper has decreased. In November, the import was 271,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.67%. China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in November were 430,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.87%. The loss of copper spot imports has narrowed, from a loss of 1,083.72 yuan/ton on December 31 to a loss of 981.04 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026 [58]. 3.3 Demand End - **Operating Rate**: In November, the operating rates of copper tube and copper plate and strip foil enterprises have rebounded but are at a low level in the same period of history. In the week of January 8, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has declined marginally [62]. - **Profit**: The processing fee for copper rods has rebounded but is at a low level in the same period of history. As of January 9, the processing fee for copper rods used in the power industry in East China was 410 yuan/ton, higher than 240 yuan/ton on December 31. The processing fee for copper tubes has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period of history. On January 9, the 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes was 5,368 yuan/ton, higher than 5,343 yuan/ton on December 31. The processing fees for copper plates and strips and lithium - ion copper foils have remained stable and are at a low level [67]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: In November, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a moderately low level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level in the same period of history. The weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has continued to decline [68]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: In November, the finished product inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The weekly finished product inventory of wire and cable enterprises has decreased [71]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: The domestic actual consumption of copper has performed well. From January to November, the cumulative consumption was 14.5615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.14%. From January to November, the apparent consumption was 14.6431 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.44%. Industries such as power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy are important supports for copper consumption. Among them, the growth rate of power grid investment has slowed down. From January to November, the cumulative power grid investment was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.90% [78]. - **Air - Conditioner and New Energy Vehicle Production**: In November, the domestic air - conditioner production was 10.577 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 35.70%. In November, the domestic new energy vehicle production was 1.88 million units, a year - on - year increase of 20.05% [79].

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View of the Report**: The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI reached 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range. There are still geopolitical disturbances, and the copper price has reached a new high and fluctuates greatly at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [3] Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap - copper policy, and December manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1% indicate a bullish trend [3] - **Basis**: Spot price is 103,700 with a basis of - 1,620, showing a discount to futures, which is bearish [3] - **Inventory**: On January 7, copper inventory increased by 3,525 tons to 146,075 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 33,639 tons to 145,342 tons compared with last week, considered neutral [3] - **Market Chart**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, still bullish [3] - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances exist, and the Grasberg Block Cave mine event in Indonesia has fermented. The copper price has reached a new high and fluctuates greatly at a high level [3] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Global policy easing and tight mine supply, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, and slow mine production increase with the Freeport Indonesia mine production cut event [4][5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and the global economic situation not being optimistic, with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [5] Supply - Demand Balance - **Overall Situation**: There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [21] - **China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2018 to 2024, production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data are presented, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [23] Other Information - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [15] - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee has declined [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, China's refined copper production is expected to decline slightly, but consumption remains supported, with a tendency for supply to exceed demand. Overseas demand is expected to be slightly weak, while the US tariff expectation continues to push the spot price higher. At the macro - level, the marginal relaxation of US financial liquidity, moderate domestic policy stimulus, and the enhanced strategic resource value due to overseas geopolitical disturbances are still favorable factors. Overall, the copper price is expected to remain at a high level with a slowdown in the upward trend. The operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 92,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M copper is expected to be between 11,500 - 13,200 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or try to go long after a decline [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Points Summary - **Supply**: Overseas copper mine supply has marginal disturbances, the tight supply pattern of copper mines remains unchanged, and the supply of blister copper is relatively loose. In December 2025, China's refined copper production rebounded, and it is expected to decrease slightly in January [9]. - **Demand**: In December 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined copper is estimated to decline. In January, the downstream start - up is expected to remain stable. Overseas manufacturing prosperity is differentiated, and the demand expectation is slightly weak [9]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, the loss of SHFE copper spot imports first widened and then narrowed. The price difference between US copper and LME copper weakened but remained positive [9]. - **Inventory**: In December 2025, the inventories of SHFE and COMEX increased, the LME inventory decreased, the bonded - area inventory remained stable, and the total inventory increased, but there are still structural problems. It is estimated that China's inventory will continue to accumulate in January [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Market Review**: In December 2025, the copper price fluctuated strongly. The main SHFE copper contract rose 12.4% and hit the 100,000 - yuan mark. The LME 3M copper contract rose 11.8%. The US dollar index weakened, and the offshore RMB broke through the 7 - yuan mark [17]. - **Market Spreads**: In December 2025, the loss of SHFE copper spot imports first widened and then narrowed. At the end of the month, the domestic copper price was stronger than the LME copper price. The COMEX - LME copper price difference fluctuated and narrowed, and the expectation of future tariffs continued to support the spread [19]. - **Inventory and Basis**: As of the end of December 2025, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 840,000 tons, an increase of 98,000 tons from the end of November. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased. The LME market's Cash/3M strengthened, and the domestic basis weakened [22][25]. - **Fund Sentiment**: As of late December 2025, the CFTC fund position remained net long, with the net - long ratio rising to 22.6%. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds remained relatively high, and the sentiment was positive [28]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - **Copper Mines**: In November 2025, Chile's copper production decreased by 7.2% year - on - year to 452,000 tons. In October 2025, Peru's copper production increased by 4.8% year - on - year to 248,000 tons. In December 2025, the inventory of copper concentrates at major Chinese ports rebounded, and the spot supply was slightly loose. The spot TC of copper concentrates fluctuated and declined, and the 2026 annual long - term contract benchmark price was set at 0 US dollars/ton [33][36]. - **Refined Copper**: In December 2025, the domestic blister copper processing fee continued to rise, and the supply of cold materials remained relatively loose. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, strengthened. China's refined copper production increased significantly in December 2025, and it is expected to decrease slightly in January 2026 [39][42]. - **Recycled Copper**: In December 2025, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 4,300 yuan/ton, widening month - on - month. The start - up rate of recycled copper rod enterprises remained weak [45]. 3.3.2 Demand - **China**: In December 2025, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper is estimated to be 1.356 million tons, a significant year - on - year decline. The cumulative apparent consumption from January to December 2025 was about 16.29 million tons, a 4.3% year - on - year increase. The average start - up rate of copper products enterprises is expected to decline in December 2025 and remain stable in January 2026. The start - up rate of refined copper rod enterprises weakened in December 2025, and the start - up rate of wire and cable enterprises is expected to rebound slightly in January 2026. The power investment decreased year - on - year in November 2025, and the new photovoltaic installation decreased year - on - year. The real - estate transaction data in December 2025 was weaker than the same period last year, and the automobile sales data was relatively strong [48][51][54]. - **Overseas**: In December 2025, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was differentiated. According to ICSG data, the global refined copper consumption increased slightly year - on - year in October 2025, and the consumption from January to October increased by about 5.1% [63]. 3.4 Macro Analysis - In November 2025, the US unemployment rate rose, and inflation data weakened. The Fed's monetary policy is expected to remain loose. In December 2025, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly, and the 10 - year inflation expectation in the US gradually stabilized, showing a relative divergence from the copper price trend [67][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation with supply disruptions, relaxed scrap - copper policies, and a marginal improvement in the manufacturing PMI [2]. - The basis shows a discount to futures, which is bearish; the inventory situation is neutral; the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - running 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [2]. - Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the copper price has reached a new high and will run at a high level in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disruptions with smelter production cuts and relaxed scrap - copper policies. The November China Manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 94810 with a basis of - 1290, indicating a discount to futures [2]. - **Inventory**: On December 24th, copper inventory decreased by 1550 to 157025 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 6416 tons to 95805 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Disk**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward - running [2]. - **Main Positions**: The main net positions are short, and short positions increased [2]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances remain, the Grasberg Block Cave mine event in Indonesia is fermenting, and the copper price has reached a new high and will run at a high level in the short term [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influential Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation are considered in the logic, but no clear separation between positive and negative factors is given [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: On December 24th, copper inventory decreased by 1550 to 157025 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 6416 tons to 95805 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - Processing fees have declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The market is expected to be in a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production was 12060000 tons, imports were 3730000 tons, exports were 460000 tons, apparent consumption was 15340000 tons, actual consumption was 15230000 tons, and the supply - demand balance was a surplus of 110000 tons [21].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the resupply rhythm of copper concentrates is expected to be tight in the first quarter and looser later, with the supply - demand situation possibly shifting from "shortage" in 2025 to "tight balance". High copper prices during the off - season and the potential adjustment pressure on prices are offset by tight raw materials, reduced domestic refined copper supply and refinery exports. The key to copper trading is the rhythm, and after a short - term adjustment, copper prices may continue to rise around the peak season next year [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2026 Copper Concentrate Resupply Rhythm - In 2026, the global copper concentrate supply growth rate is expected to rebound to around 2%, with an increment of about 450,000 tons. The supply difference will vary quarterly, being tightest in the first quarter, and the market will focus on new projects in the second quarter, large - mine复产 in the third quarter, and new projects' production increase in the fourth quarter [1] "High Copper Price + Low Consumption" and Refinery Scheduling - The Shanghai copper price has exceeded 95,000 yuan, with a high position of 640,000 lots. During the off - season, the divergence between the rising copper price and domestic spot supply - demand signals has widened. The domestic copper social inventory has slowly increased to 168,400 tons, and the copper product start - up rate is expected to be lower than last year. However, the CSPT plans to reduce the copper ore production capacity load by over 10% in 2026, and the first - quarter domestic refined copper output growth rate is likely to slow. The supply of copper concentrates and scrap copper is tightening, and the export of unforged copper cathodes and cathode profiles has increased significantly [2][3] Key Trading Points in 2026 - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the market continued to implement the copper long - allocation strategy, accelerating the year - end rise of copper prices. Due to the tightest copper concentrate supply in the first quarter of 2026, copper prices have reached the $12,000 target. After reaching a high of 95,000 - 97,000 yuan, copper prices may adjust, but are likely to rise again around the peak season. The seasonal fluctuations of domestic social inventory around the Spring Festival will verify the supply - demand situation [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be supported by the release of demand. The fundamentals may show a stage of slightly reduced supply and gradually increasing demand, with inventory reduction in the industry and positive expectations. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the main Shanghai copper futures contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 1.23% and an amplitude of 2.93%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 85,940 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Situation**: Affected by output decline and weak demand, the US manufacturing activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October. The ISM manufacturing index dropped by 0.4 to 48.7 [4]. - **Domestic Situation**: Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for China's export growth rate and real GDP growth rate. It is expected that China's export volume will increase by 5 - 6% annually in the next few years, and the forecast for China's real GDP growth rate in 2025 has been raised from 4.9% to 5% [4]. - **Fundamentals - Raw Materials**: The TC fee for copper concentrates rebounded slightly on a weekly basis but remained in the negative range. The tight supply of raw materials still strongly supported the cost of copper prices [4]. - **Supply**: Due to year - end centralized maintenance and tight supplies of copper ore and scrap copper, the production capacity of smelters was limited, and the supply of refined copper in China might tighten [4]. - **Demand**: The recent decline in copper prices released some demand that was previously suppressed by the rapid increase in copper prices. Some consumer enterprises launched promotional policies to boost downstream new projects and orders, leading to a slight reduction in social inventory [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contract**: As of November 7, 2025, the basis of the main Shanghai copper futures contract was 75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 485 yuan/ton. The price of the main contract was 85,940 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,070 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 207,136 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 51,183 lots [9]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 86,015 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 575 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of November 7, 2025, the inter - month spread of the main Shanghai copper futures contract was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [15]. - **Premium**: As of the latest data this week, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0 US dollars/ton [21]. - **Net Position**: As of the latest data, the net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper futures was - 25,642 lots, an increase of 4,447 lots compared with last week [21]. 3.3 Option Market - As of November 7, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money options of the main Shanghai copper futures contract fell below the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option trading volume was 0.772, a week - on - week increase of 0.0401 [26]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Copper Ore Price and Processing Fee**: As of the latest data this week, the price of copper concentrates in the main domestic mining areas (Jiangxi) was 76,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 900 yuan/ton. The processing fee for crude copper in the south was 1,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [27]. - **Import Volume and Spread**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, a decrease of 172,000 tons from August, a decline of 6.23% and a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. As of the latest data this week, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (including tax) was 3,217.45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 938.06 yuan/ton [34]. - **Global Production and Inventory**: As of August 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 461,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57,000 tons [39]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of September 2025, the monthly output of refined copper in China was 1.266 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from August, a decline of 2.69% and a year - on - year increase of 11.25%. As of August 2025, the global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [42]. - **Refined Copper Import**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 374,075.583 tons, an increase of 66,847.36 tons from August, an increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss was - 1,608.72 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,053.96 yuan/ton [48][49]. - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory decreased by 150 tons compared with last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 10,759 tons compared with last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,684 tons compared with last week. The total social inventory was 202,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,400 tons [52]. 3.6 Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of September 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.232 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from August, an increase of 0.45%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 490,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from August, an increase of 13.95% and a year - on - year increase of 2.08% [58]. - **Power Grid and Appliance**: As of September 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid and power source construction increased by 9.9% and 0.6% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 5.6%, - 3%, - 2%, - 6.7%, and 3.9% year - on - year respectively [62]. - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of September 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 6.770571 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.26%. The cumulative output of integrated circuits was 381.88702 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% and a month - on - month increase of 11.37% [69]. 3.7 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global refined copper supply was in excess, with a monthly surplus of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of August 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was a surplus of 256,500 tons [74][75].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the recent surge in copper prices, which has reached $11,200 per ton, may be a temporary "bull trap" driven by sentiment rather than fundamental supply-demand tightness [1][4]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - Copper prices have increased by 13% since mid-September, primarily driven by investor sentiment rather than actual supply-demand constraints [1][5]. - Goldman Sachs identifies two phases of copper price increases in 2023: a 15% rise from January to mid-September supported by solid fundamentals, and a subsequent 13% rise driven by speculative investments [5][6]. - The firm expects copper prices to retreat to the $10,000-$11,000 per ton range by early 2026, maintaining a forecasted average price of $10,500 per ton for that year [4][8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Global visible copper inventories have increased by 700,000 tons this year, indicating a surplus in the market despite recent supply disruptions [4][8]. - The demand side shows signs of weakness, with China's apparent copper consumption declining by 2% year-on-year in September [8]. - Strong growth in global refined copper production, projected at a 4% increase for the year, is expected to counterbalance supply disruptions from major mines [8]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Sentiment - Despite extreme positioning in LME investor holdings, there remains potential for further inflows into the COMEX market, which could temporarily push copper prices higher [4][7]. - The current sentiment-driven price increase may reverse if global inventories do not significantly decline in the next six months, leading to a reduction in speculative long positions [8].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: The upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged. Buy long positions on dips [1] Report Author - Researcher: Wang Wei - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03143400 - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0022141 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The copper price has reached a resistance level near the previous high. In the future, the callback range of copper may become smaller, and it is likely to break through upwards. It is recommended to buy long positions in batches on dips [9] Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Macro - aspect**: Sino - US leaders maintain close contact. There were economic and trade consultations between China and the US from October 24th to 27th, 2025, in Malaysia. Attention should be paid to the APEC summit [5] - **Supply - side**: - **Copper Ore**: In September 2025, China imported 258.7 million tons of copper ore and its concentrates, with a cumulative import of 2,263.4 million tons from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. Supply - side disturbances increased, and the output of Grasberg and QB Phase II was lower than expected. On October 24th, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was - 42.7 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.73 dollars/ton from the previous period. Port inventory increased to 67.81 million physical tons, a decrease of 0.26 million physical tons from the previous period [7] - **Scrap Copper**: Import of scrap copper has tightened in some regions. Since July this year, Uzbekistan has imposed a 100% tariff on scrap metal exports (including scrap copper). In the domestic market, due to the suspension of production in most recycled copper rod factories in Jiangxi waiting for the tax refund policy, the demand for含税 recycled copper raw materials in Jiangxi is strong. From January to September 2025, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 4.18%. In September, China imported 19.59 million tons of scrap copper, with a cumulative import of 169.89 million tons from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 1.53% [7][42] - **Refined Copper**: In September 2025, the electrolytic copper output was 112.1 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05 million tons or 4.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.62%. From January to September, the cumulative output increased by 109.55 million tons or 12.22%. SMM expects the output in October to decrease by 3.85 million tons or 3.43% month - on - month, and there is a probability that the output in November will continue to decline [7] - **Demand - side**: From the terminal perspective, domestic demand has weakened marginally. The real estate market continues to drag down the market, and the production schedules of photovoltaic and air - conditioning have declined significantly. The main support for the later market comes from orders from the two power grids, the automotive industry, and energy - storage batteries. The consumption peak season is not prosperous, and downstream acceptance of high prices is insufficient. Purchases increase when the price is below 85,000 yuan/ton [6] - **Inventory and Spread**: - The comex - lme spread remains at 3% - 4%. South American copper is still being shipped to the US in large quantities. The LME copper inventory has decreased to 13.7 million tons, and the comex inventory has increased to over 34 million tons. As of October 23rd, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 18.16 million tons compared with Monday, and increased by 0.41 million tons compared with last Thursday. The bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.49 million tons to 9.28 million tons [9] - In the long term, when the non - US supply is generally tight and the inventory declines, consider inter - period positive spreads, mainly buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts. When the comex continues to attract South American copper, the LME inventory growth is relatively slow, and the export window may open periodically. It is recommended to exit the inter - market positive spreads position periodically after the export window opens and then re - enter at an appropriate time [9] 2. Price Trends of Domestic and Overseas Markets - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai Copper Main Contract and LME 3 - Month Copper, and lists important events affecting copper prices from 2024 to 2025, such as changes in tariffs and production plans [11][12] 3. Copper Fundamental Analysis and Weekly Data Tracking - **Copper Concentrate Market**: - In August 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 193.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.47%. Peru's copper production in August 2025 was 419.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.05%. In the first 8 months of 2025, Peru's copper production was about 181 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [32] - In August 2025, Chile's copper production decreased due to the collapse of a new mine area of El Teniente [32] - **Scrap Copper Market**: As of this Friday, the refined - scrap spread is 3,798 yuan/ton. This week, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 18.69%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 8.8 percentage points year - on - year [38] - **Crude Copper Market**: In July 2025, the crude copper output was 105.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import of anode copper was 57.87 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.58%. On October 24th, the average domestic southern crude copper processing fee was 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week [44][48] - **Domestic Copper Supply**: From January to September 2025, China imported 254.16 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.06%. From January to September, China exported 48.95 million tons of refined copper [53] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: - In September 2025, the operating rate of refined - copper rod enterprises was 70.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.21 percentage points. It is expected to be 63.35% in October [59] - In September 2025, the operating rate of copper tube enterprises was 67.68%, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.33 percentage points. It is expected to be 67.34% in October [59] - In September 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of the enameled wire industry was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 1.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.15 percentage points. It is expected to be 67.66% in October [59] - In September 2025, the operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 72.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. It is expected to rise to 72.3% in October [59] - In August 2025, the operating rate of Chinese copper foil enterprises was 82.17%, a month - on - month increase of 3.73 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.54 percentage points. It is expected to continue to rise to 83.72% in October [59] - In September 2025, the operating rate of SMM copper plate and strip enterprises was 66.02%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.37 percentage points. It is expected to be 65.11% in October [59] - **Consumption Areas**: - **Air - conditioning**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales of air - conditioners were 15,257 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.91%. In August, the total sales of Chinese household air - conditioners were 1,302.3 million units, a year - on - year slight decline of 1.0%. In October 2025, the production schedule of household air - conditioners was 1,153 million units, a decrease of 18% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [64] - **Automotive**: In September 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9% [68] - **Power Grid Investment**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative investment in China's power grid was 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14%. From January to August, the investment in power - source projects of major power - generation enterprises nationwide was 499.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [72] - **Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing nationwide was 658 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. From January to September, the completed area of national housing was 311 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [77] - **Overseas Data**: - From January to August 2025, the sales of new - energy vehicles in the US were 1.0983 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.99% [89] - From January to August 2025, the sales of new - energy vehicles in the world were 9.625 million, a year - on - year increase of 36.7% [89] - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: - From January to August 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 230.61GW, a year - on - year increase of 90.62GW or 64.73%. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has raised this year's new installed capacity forecast to 270 - 300GW [83] - From January to August 2025, China's new wind - power installed capacity was 57.84GW, a year - on - year increase of 72.09%. It is expected that China's new wind - power installed capacity this year will be about 105 - 115GW [83] - **Industry News and Macro Data**: - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing from October 20th to 23rd, studying suggestions on formulating the "15th Five - Year Plan" [90] - China and the US agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [90] - Japan, Spain, and South Korea expressed deep concern about the continuous decline of copper processing and refining fees (TC/RCs) [90] - In September 2025, China's new - energy vehicle production was 1.58 million, a year - on - year increase of 20.3% [90] - From January to September 2025, Zijin Mining's mineral copper production was 830,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5% [90] - China's GDP in the third quarter of 2025 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year [90]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Analyst: Xiao Yufei [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Affected by the significantly lower-than-expected US non-farm payroll data, the gold price rose sharply and the Shanghai copper price dropped significantly on the night of last Friday, indicating a significant decline in investors' risk preference and demand expectations. On Wednesday night, affected by the low PPI data, investors continued to bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, leading to a rise in copper prices. Fundamentally, on the supply side, multiple research institutions predict that China's refined copper production this month will decline by 4%-5% month-on-month, the first decline in September since 2016. The operating rate of smelters relying on scrap copper or anode copper is expected to decline by 8.3 percentage points to 59.9% month-on-month, further amplifying the effect of supply contraction. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of copper rods increased by 1.66 percentage points to 69.78% month-on-month. Affected by Document No. 770, the operating situation of recycled copper rods is still unclear. In the short term, copper prices may first decline and then rise. The impact of the weak US employment data on copper prices may continue, and in the short term, copper prices may still seek support around 79,000 yuan per ton. If the non-farm payroll data does not ferment further, combined with the expected month-on-month increase in the operating rate of copper rods and the decline in LME copper inventories, copper prices may find support at the 20-day moving average and still have the potential to rise above 80,000 yuan per ton [4]. Key Points Summary by Section Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management Suggestions - **Copper Price Volatility**: The latest copper price is 79,790 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 4.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long spot positions, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2511C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable [3]. - **Raw Material Management**: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, for short spot positions, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 78,000 yuan/ton [3]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: - The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,790 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai copper continuous one contract rose 140 yuan to 79,790 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.18%. The Shanghai copper continuous three contract was unchanged at 79,740 yuan/ton. The LME copper 3M contract rose 95.5 US dollars to 10,012 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 0.96%. The Shanghai-London ratio was 8.11, a decrease of 0.02 or -0.25% [8]. - **Spot Data**: - The prices of Shanghai Non-ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumao, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non-ferrous decreased by 0.18%, 0.13%, 0.11%, and 0.14% respectively. The Shanghai Non-ferrous and Shanghai Wumao spot premiums decreased by 33.33% and 37.5% respectively [14]. Copper Market Supply and Demand Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: - The US and other countries reach an agreement on tariff policies. - The increase in interest rate cut expectations leads to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non-ferrous metals. - The lower support level rises [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: - Tariff policies fluctuate. - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies. - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy leads to extremely high COMEX inventories [7]. Copper Inventory Data - **Domestic Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 19,126 tons, a daily increase of 0.24%. The international copper warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,418 tons [20]. - **LME Inventories**: The total LME copper inventories decreased by 225 tons to 155,050 tons, a daily decrease of 0.14%. The European inventories remained unchanged, while the Asian inventories decreased by 225 tons [22]. - **COMEX Inventories**: The total COMEX copper inventories increased by 7,244 tons to 308,706 tons, a weekly increase of 2.4% [23].