Group 1 - Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358) has seen its stock price increase by over 200% year-to-date, with a recent rise of 6.75% to HKD 35.44 and a trading volume of HKD 738 million [1] - The suspension of operations at the Grasberg copper mine is expected to lead to a widening copper supply gap between Q4 2025 and 2026 [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Copper Branch has expressed strong opposition to "involution" competition within the copper smelting industry [1] Group 2 - Everbright Securities predicts that implementing "anti-involution" policies in the copper industry may restrict new copper smelting capacity and accelerate the exit of small and medium-sized smelting capacities [1] - Continued growth in downstream copper consumption is anticipated due to the demand from new energy and grid transformation, which may alleviate the current overcapacity in smelting and improve future profitability for smelting enterprises [1] - Jiangxi Copper is a leading copper smelting company in China, with an annual production capacity of 2.1 million tons of cathode copper, and its copper business accounts for over 70% of its revenue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations as the holiday approached, with the non-ferrous metal sector showing initial gains before narrowing. The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw significant inflows, indicating strong investor interest in this sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) initially rose over 2%, with net subscriptions reaching 15 million units, translating to over 20 million yuan in net inflows by 10:15 AM [1]. - The index components of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF showed mixed performance, with the copper sector leading gains, particularly Jiangxi Copper, which rose over 4% [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) covers a broad range of metals, with copper accounting for 30% of its composition, making it a leading index in terms of copper and gold content [4]. - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is addressing the "involution" competition in copper smelting, proposing measures to control capacity expansion [7]. - Global refined copper consumption is projected at 28.65 million tons in 2024, with China alone consuming 17 million tons, highlighting the country's dominant position in the market [8]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The industrial metal prices are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts expected to strengthen copper prices [10]. - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, which is anticipated to support gold prices in the long term [11]. - The current environment presents significant investment opportunities in non-ferrous metals, driven by supply-side policies, demand recovery, and global economic trends [11].