商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 04 日 铜：多重驱动，价格走强 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 89,210 | 0.33% | 90760 | 1.74% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 11,449 | 2.72% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 272,461 | -12,209 | 598,768 | 11,285 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 44,104 | 22,801 | 335,000 | 1,799 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 28,969 | -1,599 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 162,150 | 350 | 35.08% | 31.18% | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of copper has strengthened, driving up the overall price [1] - The global copper market is expected to shift to a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026 [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Copper Fundamental Data - **Price and Increase**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 87,430 with a daily increase of 0.51%, and the night - session closing price was 88,740 with a night - session increase of 1.50%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk had a closing price of 11,176 with a daily increase of 2.25% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 194,048, an increase of 10,795 from the previous day, and the open interest was 546,511, an increase of 7,940. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 22,550, an increase of 12,031, and the open interest was 334,000, an increase of 3,311 [1] - **Inventory and Related Ratios**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 35,244, a decrease of 629. The LME Copper inventory was 159,425, an increase of 2,250. The LME Copper cancellation warrant ratio was 4.12%, an increase of 0.26% from the previous day [1] - **Spreads**: Various spreads such as the spot - to - futures near - month spread, near - month contract to consecutive - one contract spread, etc., showed different changes [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points. The overall economic sentiment level was stable, and the non - manufacturing sentiment level declined due to the high base. US consumers showed stronger - than - expected consumption resilience on "Black Friday", leading to a steady growth in retail sales [1] - **Industry News**: The European largest copper smelter Aurubis is willing to reject low offers for copper concentrates. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage in 2026. Chile's state - owned copper company Codelco raised the CIF China electrolytic copper long - term contract benchmark price for 2026. Panama will release the preliminary results of the full - scale audit of the Cobre Panama copper mine soon [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately positive trend [3]

Group 1 - Copper prices have seen a cumulative increase of 20% this year, with LME three-month copper prices rising by 2% to $10,409 per ton on Monday [1] - The New York Mercantile Exchange's copper futures for October settled at $4.841 per pound, up 2.6% [3] - A significant reduction in copper supply is expected due to a mudslide at the second-largest copper mine operated by Freeport-McMoRan, leading to a long-term production cut [3] Group 2 - Chile's El Teniente copper mine has been forced to halt operations due to a tunnel collapse, which will take months to resolve, further impacting global copper supply [3] - Societe Generale's commodity analysis team estimates that the Grasberg mine alone will incur a loss of approximately 273,000 tons of copper supply from September to December [3] - The global copper market may face its highest supply deficit since 2004 in the second half of 2024, with a potential shortfall of 200,000 tons [3] Group 3 - Major Wall Street institutions have raised their copper price forecasts, with JPMorgan increasing its Q4 LME copper price prediction from $9,350 to $11,000 per ton, a rise of over 17% [4] - Bank of America has raised its 2026 copper price forecast by 11% to $11,313 per ton, and by 12.5% for 2027 to $13,501 per ton [4] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its previous forecast from a surplus of 105,000 tons to a shortage of 55,000 tons, confirming a complete reversal in the copper market's supply-demand balance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent mudslide incident at Indonesia's Grasberg mine has triggered a significant surge in global copper prices, with forecasts indicating a shift from surplus to shortage in the copper market due to supply disruptions [1][2][3]. Supply Disruptions - The Grasberg mine, the world's second-largest copper mine, has announced a production halt due to a mudslide, leading to a forecasted reduction of 200,000 metric tons in 2025 and nearly 270,000 metric tons in 2026 [3]. - Other major copper mines have also faced disruptions, including the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the El Teniente mine in Chile, which have both revised their production forecasts downward due to geological events [2][3]. - The cumulative effect of these incidents is expected to reduce global copper supply by approximately 0.9% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, exacerbating an already tight supply situation [3]. Price Forecasts - Major financial institutions have raised their copper price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs predicting an average LME copper price of $11,000 per metric ton for Q4, significantly higher than previous estimates [1][2]. - The copper market is anticipated to experience its largest deficit since 2004, driven by the recent supply disruptions [2]. - Citigroup has adjusted its Q4 copper price forecast from $10,000 to $10,500 per metric ton following the Grasberg incident [7]. Demand Dynamics - The demand for copper is expected to rise due to its critical role in electric vehicles, renewable energy projects, and data centers, with projections indicating a global refined copper demand of 27 million metric tons in 2024, increasing to 31 million metric tons by 2030 [7]. - The shift towards electric vehicles, which require significantly more copper than traditional vehicles, is expected to further boost demand [7]. Market Sentiment - The copper market is currently characterized by heightened speculation and volatility, with analysts suggesting that the recent price increases are not merely short-term fluctuations but indicative of a longer-term upward trend supported by supply constraints and macroeconomic factors [8]. - The overall sentiment in the copper market remains bullish, with expectations of continued price increases amid ongoing supply challenges and a favorable demand outlook [8].

Group 1: Market Impact - The recent mudslide incident at Indonesia's Grasberg mine has led to a significant surge in copper prices, with LME copper futures reaching $10,442 per ton, marking an 18.5% increase year-to-date [1][2] - Major banks have revised their copper price forecasts upward, with Goldman Sachs shifting its outlook from "oversupply" to "shortage" due to production interruptions at key mines [1][3] - JP Morgan anticipates an average LME copper price of $11,000 per ton in Q4, significantly higher than previous estimates [1][3] Group 2: Supply Disruptions - The Grasberg mine's production halt is expected to reduce global copper supply by 0.9% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, exacerbating an already tight supply situation [3][4] - Other significant copper mines, including the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the El Teniente mine in Chile, have also faced production setbacks due to geological events [2][3] - Collectively, these incidents could lead to a 6% reduction in global copper production this year [3] Group 3: Long-term Demand and Price Projections - The demand for copper is projected to increase significantly due to the rise of electric vehicles and renewable energy projects, with estimates suggesting a rise in global refined copper demand from 27 million tons in 2024 to 31 million tons by 2030 [8][9] - Goldman Sachs has described copper as the "new oil," predicting a price range of $10,200 to $10,500 per ton for the remainder of the year, with a long-term target of $10,750 per ton by 2027 [9][10] - The ongoing supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like AI and electric vehicles are expected to support copper prices in the medium to long term [9][10] Group 4: Indonesia's Mining Landscape - The Grasberg mine is crucial for Freeport-McMoRan, contributing nearly 30% of its copper output and 70% of its gold output, with the recent accident causing a significant drop in the company's stock price [5][6] - Indonesia's government may push for further nationalization of mining resources in response to the incident, as the country seeks to increase its domestic processing capabilities [6][7] - Despite having substantial copper reserves, Indonesia faces challenges in refining capacity, which has hindered its ability to fully capitalize on its mining potential [6][7]