沪铜周度报告 风暴前的平静，铜蓄势待破 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-08-22 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 供需分析 总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】全球央行会议在即美联储鹰声频传，矿供应扰动和需求韧性支撑铜价，但是供应高 弹性和库存累积制约上方空间，短期铜单边驱动不明显，等待更多宏观指引 【策略展望】 整体而言，美联储鹰派预期下美元指数反弹铜价承压，全球铜库存累库制约铜上行空间，但旺季 备库预期和铜矿紧张为铜下方提供支撑，铜震荡盘整，多空僵持，技术上看铜三角形整理进入尾 声，即将突破走出方向。 短期建议新入场等待宏观落地后再背靠77500-78000逢低试多，严格止盈和止损，企业卖出套保 逢高布局，锁定合理利润。警惕美联储降息预期落空和旺季需求证伪带来的铜高位回落风险。中 长期，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和重要的贵金属平替资产配置，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求 爆发，对铜长期看好。 沪铜关注区间【77000，80000】元/吨，伦铜关注【9650，995 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Zhonghui Futures indicates that the short-term focus for copper prices should be within the range of 78,500 to 81,000 yuan, with a long-term bullish outlook due to ongoing global copper supply tightness and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - Changjiang Futures expects copper prices to operate in the range of 78,500 to 81,000 yuan in the short term, suggesting a cautious approach to holding long positions due to potential demand suppression from rising prices and ongoing tariff uncertainties [1][2] - Guantong Futures anticipates a slow upward trend in copper prices amidst a volatile market, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and uncertain tariff policies, while also considering the tight supply of copper and weak U.S. economic data [2] Group 2 - The recent performance of copper futures shows a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 80,760.00 yuan and closing at 80,640.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.09% increase [1] - The macroeconomic sentiment appears to be improving, with the U.S. copper premium over London copper expanding, although concerns about seasonal demand and tariff uncertainties may continue to exert pressure on prices [1][2] - The upcoming expiration of a 90-day tariff exemption on July 9 is expected to reignite tariff negotiations, adding to the uncertainty in the copper market [1]