Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and hold [1] - Silver: Hold for the long - term [1] - Copper: Hold for the long - term [1] - Zinc: Bearish [1] - Lead: Bearish on rebound [1] - Tin: Bearish on rebound [1] - Aluminum: Bearish on rebound [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish on rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver prices are rising due to unresolved international issues such as G2 relations, US government shutdown, and uncertain situations in Japan and France. Long - term, gold may continue its bull run benefiting from global monetary easing, weakening dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [1][2][3] - Copper is expected to be in high demand in the long - term due to copper concentrate shortages and the booming green copper demand, although short - term, downstream is hesitant due to high prices [1][6][7] - Zinc supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, with domestic demand in the peak season being weak [1][9][10] - Aluminum price rebounds are under pressure, waiting for demand support [1][12][13] - Nickel price is weak due to sufficient supply and uncertain downstream consumption [1][16][17] - Lithium carbonate supply and demand are both increasing, with prices in a wide - range oscillation [1][21][22] Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - Gold prices are strong due to no progress in G2 relations, US government shutdown, and uncertain situations in Japan and France [2] Basic Logic - Sino - US relations have no progress, with the US adding more Chinese entities to the export control list and implementing 301 measures. Fed official Milan calls for interest rate cuts. Long - term, gold benefits from global monetary easing, weakening dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] Strategy Recommendation - For domestic gold, maintain a long - position mindset both in the short and long term as the 935 support is obvious. For silver, there is support at 11500. Pay close attention to macro - sentiment, market rhythm, US fiscal trends, and Fed policy signals, and consider going long on pullbacks [4] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper is consolidating in a high - level range, oscillating around 85,000 [6] Industry Logic - Global copper concentrate supply is tight. The copper smelting industry is undergoing changes, with expected production contraction in the fourth quarter. Downstream is hesitant due to high prices, but green copper demand remains resilient [6] Strategy Recommendation - Hold existing long positions and set trailing stops. Long - term, be bullish on copper. Short - term, focus on the range of 83,500 - 88,500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10,000 - 11,000 dollars/ton for London copper [7] Zinc Market Review - Zinc price is under pressure and its fluctuations are narrowing [9] Industry Logic - Global refined zinc supply is expected to be in surplus. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, but demand from real estate and infrastructure is weak. Overseas inventory squeeze risk persists, and domestic inventory is increasing [9] Strategy Recommendation - Hold existing short positions and consider selling hedging on rallies. Long - term, zinc is a short - side allocation. Focus on the range of 21,800 - 22,400 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 2,900 - 3,000 dollars/ton for London zinc [10] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum price rebounds are under pressure, and alumina continues its weak trend [12] Industry Logic - There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is high, and inventory is increasing. Alumina market is in surplus in the short term [13] Strategy Recommendation - Consider going long on dips in the short term for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is 20,500 - 21,500 [14] Nickel Market Review - Nickel price is under pressure, and stainless steel continues its weak trend [16] Industry Logic - Overseas nickel ore supply disturbances are weakening, and domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating. Downstream stainless steel consumption in the peak season is uncertain [17] Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach, and pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is 120,000 - 123,000 [18] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 rises and then falls, closing slightly lower [20] Industry Logic - In October, the supply - demand balance is tight. Domestic supply and production are increasing, and overseas lithium ore supply is expected to increase in November. Lithium battery and cathode production are growing, and social inventory is expected to decline [21] Strategy Recommendation - Adopt a wait - and - see approach and focus on the range of 72,600 - 73,800 for LC2601 [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, Buy and Hold [1] - Silver: ★★, Stabilize and Go Long [1] - Copper: ★★, Long - term Hold [1] - Zinc: ★, Under Pressure [1] - Lead: ★, Rebound Under Pressure [1] - Tin: ★, Under Pressure [1] - Aluminum: ★, Rebound Under Pressure [1] - Nickel: ★, Under Pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: ★★, Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★, Wide - range Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Short - term safe - haven sentiment is strong, and long - term strategic allocation value remains due to factors like interest - rate cuts, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1] - Silver: Short - term volatility is large, but long - term demand is supported by global policy stimulus, with low inventory and high price sensitivity [1] - Copper: Despite short - term pressure, it is bullish in the long - term due to copper concentrate shortage and the explosion of green copper demand [1] - Zinc: Domestic demand is weak during the peak season, and it is expected to have increased supply and decreased demand in the long - term [1] - Lead: With the resumption of production of recycled lead smelters and the arrival of imported lead, and doubts about the peak - season consumption of downstream enterprises, the price is under short - term pressure [1] - Tin: Overseas disturbances are weakening, domestic smelters are under maintenance, and the peak - season demand remains to be observed, so the price is under short - term pressure [1] - Aluminum: The cost of alumina is falling, inventory is accumulating, and although there is some support from the terminal peak season, the price is under short - term pressure [1] - Nickel: Overseas disturbances are weakening, domestic supply is sufficient, inventory is accumulating, and downstream stainless steel is also piling up, so the price is falling under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Production is increasing, and demand from downstream industries provides support for the price [1] - Polysilicon: Supported by strong policy expectations, despite the contrast between strong expectations and weak reality [1] - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, with both increasing, and the continuous decline of warehouse receipts supports the price [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold prices are strong due to the deadlock in Sino - US relations, the US government shutdown, and uncertain situations in Japan and France [2] - **Basic Logic**: Sino - US relations are at a standstill, the US government is shut down, UK employment data is poor, and gold is expected to be in a long - term bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For domestic gold, maintain a long - position thinking both in the short and long - term. For silver, pay close attention to macro - sentiment and market rhythm, and consider layout on pullbacks. Long - term positions should be held continuously [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and consolidating at a high level [5][6] - **Industrial Logic**: Global copper mine supply is tight, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline, downstream demand is affected by the high price, but green copper demand remains resilient [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Protect short - term long positions with moving stop - profits. In the long - term, be bullish on copper. Focus on the range of 82,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10,000 - 11,000 US dollars/ton for London copper [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices are under pressure, and London zinc has fallen nearly 2% [8][9] - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is loose, production is expected to increase, demand from the real estate and infrastructure sectors is weak, and overseas inventory is at a low level [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold previous short positions cautiously, and consider selling hedging at high prices. In the long - term, it is a short - position allocation in the sector. Focus on the range of 21,800 - 22,400 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 2,900 - 3,000 US dollars/ton for London zinc [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure in the rebound, and alumina continues its weak trend [11][12] - **Industrial Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is high, inventory is accumulating, and downstream demand is stable. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short - term, and pay attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is 20,500 - 21,500 yuan/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel continues its weak trend [15][16] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas disturbances to nickel ore supply are weakening, domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating, and the peak - season consumption of downstream stainless steel is uncertain [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily observe nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is 120,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 rises and then falls, with the late - session gain narrowing [19][20] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of lithium carbonate from Chile to China has decreased, the domestic supply is increasing, overseas supply is expected to recover in November, demand from the lithium - battery and cathode sectors is strong, and social inventory is expected to continue to decline [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Mainly observe, and focus on the range of 72,600 - 73,500 yuan/ton for 2601 [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and hold (★★★) [1] - Silver: Stabilize and go long (★★★) [1] - Copper: Long - term hold (★★) [1] - Zinc: Short - term rebound with limited upside, long - term sell on rallies (★) [1] - Lead: Under pressure (★) [1] - Tin: Under pressure (★) [1] - Aluminum: Rebound (★★) [1] - Nickel: Under pressure (★) [1] - Industrial Silicon: Rebound (★) [1] - Polysilicon: Pullback (★) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range oscillation (★) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions such as unstable G2 relations, chaotic situations in Japan and France, and the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict lead to a resurgence of short - term risk - aversion sentiment, making gold and silver good investment choices both in the short and long term [1][3] - Copper is expected to perform well in the long run due to factors like copper concentrate shortages and the explosion of green copper demand, despite short - term market fluctuations [1][7] - Zinc supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, so it is a short - side configuration in the long term, with limited short - term upside [1][10] - Aluminum prices are expected to rebound in the short term, although facing inventory pressure [1][14] - Nickel prices are under pressure due to sufficient supply and inventory accumulation [1][18] - Lithium carbonate fundamentals are in a tight balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][22] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Geopolitical chaos causes risk - aversion sentiment to heat up, leading to a sharp rise in gold and silver prices [2] - **Basic Logic**: Unresolved Sino - US relations, political instability in Japan and France, long - term positive factors for gold such as global monetary easing and dollar credit decline, and a continuous supply shortage of silver [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, maintain a long - position thinking in both the short and long term; for silver, pay attention to macro - sentiment and market rhythm, and consider long - term holding [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper gaps up and rises, and London copper rises by over 4% [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply concerns intensify due to mine accidents and production slowdowns. Production is expected to decline, and downstream demand is strong in green industries [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Use trailing stops for short - term long positions. Be optimistic about copper in the long run and focus on specific price ranges [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices fall under pressure, and London zinc fluctuates around the 3000 mark [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, but demand is weak. There is a risk of a soft squeeze on London zinc inventory [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term rebound with limited upside. Sell - hedge and go short on rallies in the long term, and focus on specific price ranges [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebound under pressure, and alumina continues to be weak [12] - **Industrial Logic**: There is an inventory build - up in electrolytic aluminum, and the alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the short term, pay attention to downstream processing enterprise operations, and focus on specific price ranges [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices fall under pressure, and stainless steel shows a weak trend [16] - **Industrial Logic**: Nickel supply is sufficient, and stainless steel demand is uncertain during the peak season [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see, pay attention to downstream consumption improvement, and focus on specific price ranges [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens slightly lower and fluctuates at a low level throughout the day [20] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Domestic production hits a new high, and demand remains firm. Social inventory may continue to decline [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see, and focus on the price range of 2601 [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - With the arrival of the peak seasons of “Golden September and Silver October” and the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, copper prices are expected to rise due to the resonance of macro - and micro - factors, but there is also a risk of a short - term decline if expectations are not met. In the long term, the report is bullish on copper [6]. - Overall, the resilience of US macro data, Trump's active pressure, and the increasing probability of a Fed rate cut in September have led to a weaker US dollar and a rebound in copper prices. In China, there is a macro - policy vacuum period, and the A - share bull market has siphoned funds from the commodity market. Fundamentally, supply disruptions in copper ore and the recovery of demand during the peak season, along with tight domestic copper social inventories, suggest that copper prices will fluctuate upward. In the short term, it is recommended to hold existing long copper positions and wait for opportunities to go long on dips. Enterprises should wait for high - price opportunities to conduct sell - hedging. In the long term, copper is favored due to its status as a strategic resource in the China - US game and as a substitute for precious metals, along with the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [6]. Summary of Each Section 1. Macroeconomic Analysis - **US Economic Indicators and Fed Policy**: The market is waiting for US inflation and employment data. The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, the highest since May 2022, but it may be affected by inflation. Although the July non - farm payrolls data was disappointing and previous data was revised downward, the number of unemployment benefit claimants has recently declined. The market expects the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data to remain at a 2.6% increase. If the data is mild, the Fed may focus more on employment pressure; otherwise, the probability of a September rate cut may be reduced. Trump's dismissal of Fed governor Cook has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, and Fed Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium have increased the expectation of a September rate cut, with traders' probability bets exceeding 80%. The US dollar index has weakened, and copper prices have shown an upward trend [10]. - **Domestic Macroeconomic Situation**: In August, the LPR remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. The Fed's delay in cutting interest rates restricts China's monetary policy space. The Sino - US interest rate spread has slightly narrowed. There is a short - term domestic policy vacuum period. Before the September 3 military parade, the A - share market was booming, siphoning funds from the commodity market. After the parade, market sentiment may cool down, and there is a risk of a decline in copper prices [13]. 2. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Copper Concentrate**: Supply disruptions have occurred. Codelco's copper production is expected to decrease by 33,000 metric tons in 2025 due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine. Zambia's copper production in the second quarter decreased, and Indonesia's copper concentrate exports are approaching the quota. China's copper concentrate imports in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month, but port inventories are significantly lower than the historical average. The global production and capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates have declined. The copper concentrate processing fee TC is still deeply inverted [34]. - **Scrap Copper**: The scrap copper market has a tight supply. The price difference between refined and scrap copper has a narrow fluctuation, weakening the substitution effect of scrap copper and stimulating refined copper consumption. Domestic scrap copper supply has increased in the first half of the year, while imported scrap copper has decreased slightly. The production of blister copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic and imported blister copper are at historical lows [38]. - **Refined Copper**: In July, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that production will decline in August and September due to smelter maintenance. The supply gap of refined copper in 2025 has narrowed, showing a tight balance. The import of refined copper has increased in July, and the import window has opened recently. The ICSG reported a supply surplus in the global copper market from January to June 2025, but the surplus has narrowed [43]. - **Demand Side** - **Downstream Processing Enterprises**: From July to August, affected by high temperatures and floods, downstream copper processing enterprises were in a traditional off - season, with lower operating rates. The operating rates of most copper product enterprises decreased in July, except for the copper foil industry [49]. - **Terminal Demand**: The demand for electricity and new energy vehicles has shown resilience. From January to July, power grid investment increased year - on - year, and new photovoltaic installations performed well. The real estate market is still in a difficult situation. In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly year - on - year. The performance of household appliances is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [54]. 3. Summary and Outlook - **Macro - level**: The release of US inflation and employment data is imminent. Although the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, there is a risk of reversals. The market sentiment is cautious. In China, there is a macro - policy vacuum period, and the LPR remains unchanged. After the military parade in early September, market sentiment may decline, and attention should be paid to domestic and international macro - data [74]. - **Fundamental - level**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the processing fee TC is deeply inverted. Although China's electrolytic copper production increased in July, it may decline in August and September due to smelter maintenance. With the approaching peak seasons and inventory replenishment, demand is expected to recover. Globally, copper inventories have increased monthly, but domestic copper social inventories are low. The short - term contradiction in the copper market is the weak reality of inventory accumulation after the US copper tariff TACO versus the strong expectation of inventory depletion during the peak season. The medium - term contradiction lies in the interference of copper concentrates and the inverted TC versus the high elasticity of refined copper supply. The long - term contradiction is the global economic concerns caused by China - US confrontation versus the booming demand for green copper in the power and new energy sectors [74].

News Summary Group 1: Company Developments - Codelco's El Teniente copper mine has received approval from the mining regulator Sernageomin to resume operations at Andes Norte and Diamante, while Recursos Norte and Andesita remain closed [1] - The copper rod production rate increased to 71.80% during the week of August 15-21, up 1.2 percentage points week-on-week, but down 8.75 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Copper raw material inventory decreased by 2.31% week-on-week to 33,800 tons due to maintenance-related production cuts at some copper rod enterprises [1] - Finished product inventory fell by 5.44% to 66,100 tons following a temporary improvement in downstream orders after a drop in copper prices [1] - Domestic copper inventory saw a slight increase but remains at low levels, while LME copper inventory has accumulated [2][3] - The market liquidity has improved due to the return of imported copper and domestic supply [3] - Downstream consumption has not shown a turning point, but the demand for replenishment has increased as copper prices decline [3] - The market is expected to maintain a strong outlook due to anticipated demand increases in the upcoming peak season, despite current pressures on spot premiums [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global central bank meetings are approaching, and the Fed has been issuing hawkish signals. Mining supply disruptions and demand resilience support copper prices, but high supply elasticity and inventory accumulation restrict the upside space. In the short term, there is no obvious single - sided driver for copper, and it awaits more macro - level guidance [6]. - Overall, under the Fed's hawkish expectations, the US dollar index rebounds, putting pressure on copper prices. Global copper inventory accumulation restricts the upward space for copper. However, the expectation of stockpiling for the peak season and tight copper ore supply provide support for the downside of copper. Copper is in a state of oscillatory consolidation, with a stalemate between bulls and bears. Technically, the triangular consolidation of copper is nearing its end, and it is about to break out and move in a certain direction [6][75]. - In the short term, new entrants are advised to wait for the macro - situation to be clarified and then try to go long on dips around 77,500 - 78,000. Enterprises should arrange sell - hedging at high prices to lock in reasonable profits. In the long term, as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and an important alternative asset allocation for precious metals, with tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand, copper is bullish [6][75]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macroeconomic - **Global Central Bank and US Economy**: Before Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting, some Fed officials showed a negative attitude towards a rate cut next month. The US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022. The US dollar index rose 0.8% compared to last Friday, reaching 98.64. As of August 22, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September dropped significantly to 75% from the previous 95%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged was 25%. The possibility of an aggressive 50 - basis - point rate cut in September disappeared [11]. - **China's Economic Situation**: In August, the LPR remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, with the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. The Fed's delay in rate cuts restricts China's monetary policy space. The Sino - US interest rate spread is - 2.54%, slightly narrowing compared to last week. In the short - term domestic policy vacuum period, before the September 3 military parade, the A - share market is booming, siphoning market funds, and the anti - involution sentiment in the commodity market has subsided [14]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: Supply disruptions have occurred. Codelco expects a 33,000 - metric - ton reduction in refined copper production in 2025 due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine. Zambia's copper production in the second quarter decreased, putting its goal of increasing production to 1 million tons this year at risk. China's copper concentrate imports in July were 2.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.25%. As of August 22, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) dropped to - 41.15 dollars per ton, and the copper concentrate TC decreased to - 41.3 dollars per ton [36]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: The scrap copper market is in short supply, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper has narrowed. As of August 22, the price difference was 1,084 yuan per ton. From January to June, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 611,300 tons. In July, the import of copper scrap and waste was 190,100 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% [40]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production in August will be 1.1683 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51%. The ICSG reported that from January to June 2025, the global copper market had a total supply surplus of 251,000 tons [45]. 3.2.2 Demand - **Traditional Downstream Demand**: From July to August, affected by high temperatures and floods, it was the traditional off - season for terminal consumption. The operating rates of downstream copper processing enterprises declined. In July, the operating rate of copper product enterprises was 61.58%, and the output of copper products was 2.1694 million tons [51]. - **Terminal Demand in Power and New Energy Vehicles**: From January to June, power grid project investment increased by 14.6% year - on - year, and new photovoltaic installations increased by 107.07% year - on - year. In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% and 27.4% [55]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - **Market Situation**: The short - term core contradiction in copper supply and demand is the strong expectation of inventory reduction during the off - peak to peak season transition versus the weak reality of inventory accumulation due to the short - term supply glut. In the medium term, it is the tight copper concentrate supply and low processing fees versus the high elasticity of smelting supply. In the long term, it is the concern about the weak global economy due to the escalation of Sino - US confrontation versus the explosion of green copper demand in power and new energy [75]. - **Price Trend and Strategy**: Copper is oscillating and consolidating, and a breakthrough is imminent. Short - term new entrants are advised to wait for the macro - situation to be clear and then go long on dips around 77,500 - 78,000. Enterprises should arrange sell - hedging at high prices. In the long term, copper is bullish [6][75].

1. Report Investment Ratings for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold and silver, short - term "stop - falling and try to go long", long - term strategic allocation for gold and long - term long for silver [1] - For copper, short - term "buy on dips", long - term optimistic [1][8] - For zinc, lead, tin, and nickel, short - term "under pressure", long - term for zinc "sell on rallies" [1] - For aluminum, short - term "rebound" [1] - For industrial silicon, short - term "rebound under pressure" [1] - For polysilicon, "high - level consolidation", buy on dips [1] - For lithium carbonate, "high - level consolidation", hold long positions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US data is mixed, and there is a lack of new drivers in the short - term, leading to market consolidation [2][3] - **Basic Logic**: Focus on Powell's speech; US data is mixed; in the short - term, it's hard for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 766 in the short - term, and long positions can be considered after stabilization; silver has support at 9100 in the short - term [5] 3.2 Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates in a narrow range [6][7] - **Industrial Logic**: There are recent disturbances in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. Refined copper production may decline marginally in the future. Currently in the off - season, but demand is expected to pick up. Overall, copper supply and demand are in a tight balance [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the Fed officials' hawkish remarks, it is recommended to buy copper on dips. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai copper [78000, 80000] yuan/ton and LME copper [9650, 9950] dollars/ton [6][8] 3.3 Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuates weakly, testing the lower support level [9][10][11] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The processing fee of zinc concentrate is rising, and smelters' enthusiasm for production is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the off - season, zinc fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous short positions. In the long - term, sell on rallies. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc [22000, 22600] and LME zinc [2700, 2800] dollars/ton [10][12] 3.4 Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices stabilize and rebound, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [13][14] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost has decreased, the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory in the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [13][16] 3.5 Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices run weakly, and stainless steel is under pressure [17][18] - **Industrial Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, the production of refined nickel has increased, and the inventory has accumulated again. The effect of stainless steel production cuts on inventory reduction is weakening, and there is still an oversupply pressure in the off - season [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on nickel and stainless steel on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to the change of downstream inventory. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [17][20] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens slightly lower, rises and then falls, and closes slightly down [21][22] - **Industrial Logic**: Although there are negative news, the supply is expected to contract unexpectedly. With the arrival of the peak demand season, downstream factories start to stock up. The inventory structure is fragile, and the price is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of [82000 - 85000] [24]