沪铜月报 金九银十，铜能否迎来宏微共振？ 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-08-29 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 供需分析 总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】金九银十旺季来临叠加美联储9月降息概率回升，铜有望宏微共振，重心上移，但 短期也警惕预期证伪带来回落风险，长期对铜依旧看多 【策略展望】 策略：回调逢低试多 【风险提示】 政策不及预期，需求不足，中美关系 4 整体而言，美国宏观数据展现韧性，特朗普积极施压，美联储9月降息概率回升，美元走弱铜价 反弹，国内宏观政策真空期，A股大牛市虹吸商品市场。基本面上，矿供应扰动和淡旺季切换需 求复苏，国内铜社会库存偏紧，铜有望宏微共振，震荡上行。短期建议前期铜多单继续持有，新 入场等待回调逢低试多机会（背靠78000），企业卖出套保等待逢高布局时机（背靠81000），锁 定合理利润。关注后续美国8月非农数据，警惕美联储降息预期落空，9月3日大阅兵结束后，国 内市场情绪或小幅降温，警惕铜价高位回落风险。 中长期，铜作为 ...

News Summary Group 1: Company Developments - Codelco's El Teniente copper mine has received approval from the mining regulator Sernageomin to resume operations at Andes Norte and Diamante, while Recursos Norte and Andesita remain closed [1] - The copper rod production rate increased to 71.80% during the week of August 15-21, up 1.2 percentage points week-on-week, but down 8.75 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Copper raw material inventory decreased by 2.31% week-on-week to 33,800 tons due to maintenance-related production cuts at some copper rod enterprises [1] - Finished product inventory fell by 5.44% to 66,100 tons following a temporary improvement in downstream orders after a drop in copper prices [1] - Domestic copper inventory saw a slight increase but remains at low levels, while LME copper inventory has accumulated [2][3] - The market liquidity has improved due to the return of imported copper and domestic supply [3] - Downstream consumption has not shown a turning point, but the demand for replenishment has increased as copper prices decline [3] - The market is expected to maintain a strong outlook due to anticipated demand increases in the upcoming peak season, despite current pressures on spot premiums [3]

沪铜周度报告 风暴前的平静，铜蓄势待破 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-08-22 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 供需分析 总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】全球央行会议在即美联储鹰声频传，矿供应扰动和需求韧性支撑铜价，但是供应高 弹性和库存累积制约上方空间，短期铜单边驱动不明显，等待更多宏观指引 【策略展望】 整体而言，美联储鹰派预期下美元指数反弹铜价承压，全球铜库存累库制约铜上行空间，但旺季 备库预期和铜矿紧张为铜下方提供支撑，铜震荡盘整，多空僵持，技术上看铜三角形整理进入尾 声，即将突破走出方向。 短期建议新入场等待宏观落地后再背靠77500-78000逢低试多，严格止盈和止损，企业卖出套保 逢高布局，锁定合理利润。警惕美联储降息预期落空和旺季需求证伪带来的铜高位回落风险。中 长期，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和重要的贵金属平替资产配置，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求 爆发，对铜长期看好。 沪铜关注区间【77000，80000】元/吨，伦铜关注【9650，995 ...

1. Report Investment Ratings for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold and silver, short - term "stop - falling and try to go long", long - term strategic allocation for gold and long - term long for silver [1] - For copper, short - term "buy on dips", long - term optimistic [1][8] - For zinc, lead, tin, and nickel, short - term "under pressure", long - term for zinc "sell on rallies" [1] - For aluminum, short - term "rebound" [1] - For industrial silicon, short - term "rebound under pressure" [1] - For polysilicon, "high - level consolidation", buy on dips [1] - For lithium carbonate, "high - level consolidation", hold long positions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US data is mixed, and there is a lack of new drivers in the short - term, leading to market consolidation [2][3] - **Basic Logic**: Focus on Powell's speech; US data is mixed; in the short - term, it's hard for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 766 in the short - term, and long positions can be considered after stabilization; silver has support at 9100 in the short - term [5] 3.2 Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates in a narrow range [6][7] - **Industrial Logic**: There are recent disturbances in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. Refined copper production may decline marginally in the future. Currently in the off - season, but demand is expected to pick up. Overall, copper supply and demand are in a tight balance [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the Fed officials' hawkish remarks, it is recommended to buy copper on dips. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai copper [78000, 80000] yuan/ton and LME copper [9650, 9950] dollars/ton [6][8] 3.3 Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuates weakly, testing the lower support level [9][10][11] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The processing fee of zinc concentrate is rising, and smelters' enthusiasm for production is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the off - season, zinc fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous short positions. In the long - term, sell on rallies. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc [22000, 22600] and LME zinc [2700, 2800] dollars/ton [10][12] 3.4 Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices stabilize and rebound, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [13][14] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost has decreased, the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory in the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [13][16] 3.5 Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices run weakly, and stainless steel is under pressure [17][18] - **Industrial Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, the production of refined nickel has increased, and the inventory has accumulated again. The effect of stainless steel production cuts on inventory reduction is weakening, and there is still an oversupply pressure in the off - season [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on nickel and stainless steel on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to the change of downstream inventory. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [17][20] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens slightly lower, rises and then falls, and closes slightly down [21][22] - **Industrial Logic**: Although there are negative news, the supply is expected to contract unexpectedly. With the arrival of the peak demand season, downstream factories start to stock up. The inventory structure is fragile, and the price is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of [82000 - 85000] [24]