Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper futures contracts have surged past 76,000 yuan, indicating a frantic demand from traders for physical copper, with reports of copper being transferred multiple times before reaching its destination [1] - The global copper supply chain is under severe pressure, with smelters in China warning of raw material shortages and the need to cut production by 20% [1] - The quality of copper concentrate from South America is declining, leading to disputes over payments and further complicating the supply situation [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - Social conflicts and supply chain interruptions are evident, as seen in Peru where increased security and community blockades have hindered the transport of copper concentrate [3] - The Chinese copper industry is facing rising raw material costs, with some manufacturers unable to fulfill orders due to skyrocketing copper prices [3] - The recycling sector is seen as a potential solution to the copper shortage, but there is a significant gap in recovery capabilities, with only a fraction of waste copper being processed [4][6] Group 3: Global Mining Challenges - Mining operations in regions like the Democratic Republic of Congo are facing logistical challenges due to weather and social unrest, further tightening global copper supply [6] - The average copper grade in Chinese mines is significantly lower than in South America, leading to higher production costs and reduced competitiveness [8] - Climate change is exacerbating mining difficulties, with water shortages impacting production rates in Chilean mines [8] Group 4: Future Demand and Supply Gap - The International Energy Agency warns of a looming copper supply gap, projecting a demand of 50 million tons by 2035 against a potential supply of only 35 million tons [9] - The transition to renewable energy sources is driving unprecedented demand for copper, with electric vehicles and renewable energy installations consuming significantly more copper than traditional vehicles [9][10] - The rising costs of copper are affecting consumer products, leading to price increases in everyday items such as air conditioners and electric vehicles [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. The resumption of Trump's tariff ban and Powell's expression of the Fed's independent monetary - policy - making stance after the first meeting with Trump dampened the expectation of easing this year. The rebound of the US dollar index limited the upward movement of copper prices. Meanwhile, the shutdown of the underground operation in the Kakula section of the Kamoa copper mine and the record - low mid - year long - term TC quote of Antofagasta to CSPT provided strong support for copper prices from the supply side [2][8]. - Globally, the trade pattern still faces significant uncertainty risks. There are differences between the Fed and Trump in monetary - policy stances. Attention should be paid to the evolution of trade policies, their impact on the global supply chain, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy. Fundamentally, overseas mine - end disturbances are frequent, domestic refined copper remains in a tight balance, and social inventories are oscillating at a low level, providing solid support for copper prices. In the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of the previous LME copper price at $9,600 per ton [3][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price Changes**: From May 23rd to May 30th, LME copper decreased from $9,614/ton to $9,497/ton, a decline of $117 or 1.22%; COMEX copper dropped from 486.5 cents/pound to 470.2 cents/pound, a decrease of 16.3 cents or 3.35%; SHFE copper fell from 78,270 yuan/ton to 77,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 670 yuan or 0.86%; International copper rose from 68,700 yuan/ton to 68,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan or 0.26%. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.14 to 8.17, the LME spot premium increased from $31.14/ton to $50.08/ton, a rise of 60.82%, and the Shanghai spot premium increased from 165 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of May 30th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 487,852 tons, a decline of 6.04% compared to May 23rd. Among them, LME inventory decreased by 30,925 tons to 148,450 tons, a decline of 17.24%; COMEX inventory increased by 10,965 short tons to 180,629 short tons, a rise of 6.46%; SHFE inventory increased by 7,120 tons to 105,773 tons, a rise of 7.22%; Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 18,500 tons to 53,000 tons, a decline of 25.87% [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The resumption of Trump's tariff ban and Powell's stance on independent monetary - policy - making restricted the upward movement of copper prices. The shutdown of the underground operation in the Kakula section of the Kamoa copper mine and the record - low TC quote provided support from the supply side. Overseas mine - end disturbances intensified, COMEX inventory exceeded LME inventory after three years, the Yangshan copper warrant premium was high, social inventories were at a low level, and the near - month B structure of the futures market widened slightly [2][8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 30th, the total global inventory continued to decline. LME copper inventory decreased significantly, the LME 0 - 3B structure widened, and the proportion of cancelled warrants continued to rise to 51.5%. SHFE inventory rebounded slightly from a low level, Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased, the Yangshan copper bill of lading premium remained above $90, and COMEX inventory exceeded LME inventory for the first time in three years. The rise of the Shanghai - London ratio was mainly due to the rebound of the US dollar index [8]. - **Macro - situation**: The Fed's latest meeting minutes showed that the US economy continued to expand steadily, unemployment was low, inflation was generally controllable but rising, and trade policies had a large impact on the economic outlook. Powell expressed the Fed's independent stance, while Trump thought Powell's non - interest - rate - cut decision was wrong. The EU should be vigilant against potential economic downturn risks. In China, industrial enterprise profits from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year, showing a positive trend [9]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The spot TC remained below - $40/ton, and Antofagasta's mid - year long - term TC quote to CSPT was a record - low - $15/ton, increasing concerns about raw - material supply shortages. Domestic refined copper was in a tight balance. On the demand side, power - grid investment projects were being tendered, copper - cable enterprises' weekly operating rate was about 80%, and orders for refined - copper rod enterprises were abundant. Although there was an expected significant decline in photovoltaic installation in May, emerging markets such as data centers, artificial intelligence, and new - energy vehicles brought strong growth expectations. Domestic social inventories remained around 140,000 tons, and the near - month B structure rebounded slightly [10]. 3.3 Industry News - **Supply - demand Forecast**: In March 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons, narrowing from 180,000 tons in February. Overseas investment banks predicted a possible shortage in the global refined copper market in the second half of the year, and the risk of a "copper shortage" was increasing. Chile raised the global average copper price forecast for 2025 to $4.3 per pound [11]. - **Mine - end Incidents**: The underground operation of the Kakula mine in the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine was suspended due to increased water inflow. The mine was formulating a drainage plan, and the surface infrastructure was not affected. The Freeport Indonesia copper smelter in East Java resumed operation ahead of schedule and was expected to start producing cathode copper in the fourth week of June and reach full - capacity production in December [12][13]. - **Processing - fee and Market Transaction**: The processing fee for 8mm T1 cable rods in East China last week was in the range of 450 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The trading activity in the East China refined - copper rod market increased, while in South China, trading was mostly postponed to after the holiday. It was expected that the operating rate of domestic refined - copper rod enterprises would remain high in early June [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area, copper premium trends, copper import profit - loss trends, copper concentrate spot TC, and the net - long - position ratio of non - commercial traders in COMEX copper and the net - position changes of investment funds in LME copper, etc [15][22][36].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Tight Balance Expectations Heat Up, Copper Prices Fluctuate at High Levels [1] Core Views - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at high levels. The main reasons were that the US manufacturing industry returned to the expansion range and the Chinese central bank introduced loose policies to continuously inject vitality into the economy. However, the US tax reform bill will face high budget deficit pressure in the future, slightly suppressing market risk appetite. The market has fully digested the optimistic sentiment such as the China-US trade truce, and there is a short - term lack of macro - logical drivers. In addition, a global well - known commodity giant warned of the risk of a "copper shortage" this year, stating that the strong demand from China's new energy industry and the pre - demand due to US tariff premiums will break the original supply - demand balance, and it is expected that the global refined copper gap may reach as much as 300,000 tons in 2025 [2]. - Overall, the strong resilience of the US economy and a series of economic stimulus policies introduced by China continue to boost copper prices. However, after the release of the optimistic sentiment from the previous China - US negotiations, there is currently a lack of core macro - drivers, and the uncertainty of tariff hikes and trade policies still continuously disrupts the global supply chain. Fundamentally, the interference rate at the upstream mine end has increased, the domestic refined copper supply margin has widened, and the social inventory has rebounded from a low level. It is expected that copper prices will maintain high - level fluctuations and wait for future direction guidance [3][12] Market Data Price Changes - LME copper rose from $9,440.00 to $9,614.00, an increase of $174.00 or 1.84% [4]. - COMEX copper rose from 459.15 cents/pound to 486.5 cents/pound, an increase of 27.35 cents or 5.96% [4]. - SHFE copper fell from 78,140.00 yuan/ton to 77,790.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350.00 yuan or - 0.45% [4]. - International copper fell from 69,350.00 yuan/ton to 69,030.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320.00 yuan or - 0.46% [4]. - The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.28 to 8.09, a decrease of 0.19 [4]. - LME spot premium/discount fell from $31.45 to $31.14, a decrease of $0.31 or - 0.99% [4]. - Shanghai spot premium/discount fell from 445 yuan to 165 yuan, a decrease of 280 yuan [4]. Inventory Changes - LME inventory decreased from 179,375 tons to 164,725 tons, a decrease of 14,650 tons or - 8.17% [7]. - COMEX inventory increased from 169,664 short tons to 175,631 short tons, an increase of 5,967 short tons or 3.52% [7]. - SHFE inventory decreased from 108,124 tons to 98,653 tons, a decrease of 9,471 tons or - 8.76% [7]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased from 71,500 tons to 59,800 tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons or - 16.36% [7]. - Total inventory decreased from 528,663 tons to 498,809 tons, a decrease of 29,854 tons or - 5.65% [7] Market Analysis and Outlook Macro - aspect - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3, a three - month high, significantly higher than the expected 49.9. The new orders sub - index rose significantly to 53.3, expanding for five consecutive months. After the trade war subsided, enterprises' expectations for future output turned optimistic, but some producers also reported high cost - end pressure. The export orders index showed two consecutive months of contraction. The passage of the Trump tax reform bill by the US House of Representatives intensified the sell - off in the US Treasury market, dragging down the center of the US stock index and market risk appetite. It is estimated that the bill will increase the US budget deficit by $2.7 trillion in ten years [10]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The market generally expects the ECB to cut interest rates slightly again in June. The Chinese central bank lowered the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR by 10 basis points, and the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to improve the institutional mechanism for promoting the development of the private economy [10]. Supply - demand aspect - This week, the spot TC remained below - $40/ton. The underground mining operations of the eastern area of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine under Ivanhoe have been fully suspended due to multiple earthquakes. The Cobre Panama project under First Quantum restarted after signing a new agreement, and the Antamina copper mine in Peru has not returned to normal levels. The interference rate at the upstream mine end continues to increase [11]. - In terms of refined copper, domestic refined copper production is running at a high level, but the TC negotiation is approaching in the middle of the year. Maintaining negative processing fees for a long time may cause some small and medium - sized smelters in China to face production cuts. Recently, the volume of imported goods from South America has gradually decreased but is limited. The supply margin has changed from tight to loose, but the sustainability needs further observation. In terms of demand, power grid investment projects are advancing steadily. The weekly operating rate of copper cable enterprises is 82.3%, and that of refined copper rod enterprises is about 73%, slightly lower than the same period in previous years. The current concern on the demand side is the significant decline in demand after the photovoltaic installation rush. In addition, the copper demand growth rate of emerging industries is stable, with new energy vehicles performing very well, and the copper demand in the artificial intelligence field and data centers is also increasing [11]. Industry News - According to the latest WBMS report, in March 2025, the global refined copper production reached 2.513 million tons, and the consumption was 2.493 million tons, with a supply surplus of 20,500 tons. From January to March this year, the total global refined copper production was 7.2832 million tons, and the total consumption was 7.0125 million tons, with a total supply surplus of 270,800 tons, and the supply gap is decreasing month by month [14]. - Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter in East Java has resumed operation ahead of schedule after a fire - related shutdown last October. It is expected to start producing cathode copper in the fourth week of June and reach full - load production in December. In March this year, the Indonesian government issued a six - month license to Freeport Indonesia, allowing it to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate [14]. - Ivanhoe has suspended the underground mining operations of its Kakula copper mine due to earthquake activities in the eastern mining area of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. After inspection, the seismic activity in the past 24 hours has significantly decreased, and the western area of the Kakula mine has been declared safe, with mining operations about to resume. The processing capacity of the No. 1 and No. 2 concentrators of the Kakula mine has decreased, and currently only processes ore from the surface stockpile [15]. - According to Mysteel research data, last week, the processing fee range of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 530 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 160 - 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The rapid decline in processing fees was due to the decline in the premium after the monthly contract change, and the high - level fluctuation of copper prices around 78,000 yuan made downstream enterprises wait - and - see, with low restocking willingness and mainly for rigid demand procurement. In the East China market, the transaction volume of the refined copper rod market increased slightly last week. In the South China market, downstream enterprises mainly took delivery of long - term orders, and the zero - order trading volume was limited [16]. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange and bonded area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, Shanghai copper basis trend, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][18][19]