Group 1 - Aluminum prices remained high last week, supported by improved market sentiment due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum showed steady growth, while the shipment of bauxite from Guinea is expected to decline starting in August due to seasonal impacts [1] - Domestic downstream processing enterprises' operating rates slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%, with aluminum cable operating rates stable at 61.8% [1] Group 2 - The operating rate for aluminum foil decreased to 68.4%, influenced by declining demand for air conditioning foil and uncertainties in new energy policies [1] - The operating rate for recycled aluminum remained steady at 53.1%, facing downward pressure due to weak seasonal demand and high-temperature holidays [1] - As of August 11, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas reached 587,000 tons, reflecting fluctuations due to uneven arrivals [1] Group 3 - Short-term aluminum prices are expected to remain high, with attention needed on geopolitical crises, macroeconomic policy implementation, supply increases, and consumption recovery [1]

期货热点追踪 全球铝价因美国关税政策变动而飙升，市场供需如何调整？全球铝市场的未来走势如何？ 相关链接 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Long the near and short the far in SHFE aluminum futures [5] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the traditional off - season is approaching, the rush for exports may be near the end, the destocking of social inventory has slowed down, and the aluminum price is under pressure. Without other positive factors, it's difficult for the aluminum price to rise further. Attention should be paid to social inventory changes and overseas interference [3] - For alumina, the spot price follows the strong trend of the futures market. The futures price has risen due to disturbances at the Guinea ore end. Although the bauxite imports increased significantly from January to April and there may be no supply gap even if the Axis mine stops production completely, there are concerns about the expansion of restrictions [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot and Futures - On May 19, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of Yangtze River A00 aluminum decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. The Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20,150 yuan/ton, and its spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,110 yuan/ton, and its spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [1] - On May 19, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,125 yuan/ton, closed at 20,110 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.2%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 199,900 lots, an increase of 63,926 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 201,358 lots, a decrease of 2,699 lots [1] Alumina Spot and Futures - On May 19, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,025 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,950 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,025 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2] - On May 19, 2025, the main contract of alumina futures opened at 2,938 yuan/ton, closed at 3,127 yuan/ton, up 184 yuan/ton (6.25%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 2,886,512 lots, an increase of 1,465,036 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 310,945 lots, a decrease of 32,504 lots [2] Inventory - As of May 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 585,000 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 393,450 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [1] Market Transactions - On May 19, 2025, 2,000 tons of alumina spot were traded in Henan at a cash - on - delivery ex - factory price of 3,000 yuan/ton. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered to purchase 10,000 tons of alumina spot at a delivered price between 3,400 - 3,470 yuan/ton. 10,000 tons of alumina spot were traded in Shanxi at a cash - on - delivery ex - factory price of 3,150 yuan/ton [3]