Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing volatility, with recent price fluctuations influenced by supply-demand dynamics and external factors such as Guinea's mining policies [3][4]. Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The aluminum oxide futures market has seen a notable decrease in trading activity, shifting focus back to fundamental factors. In April, widespread maintenance and production cuts due to losses led to tighter spot supply. In May, changes in Guinea's mineral resource policies contributed to a price surge, with futures prices nearing 3300 yuan/ton [3]. - As the excitement around Guinea's mining policy subsides, bearish forces have emerged, causing aluminum oxide futures prices to drop back to the 2900-3000 yuan/ton range. The Guinea government's revocation of the AXIS mining license primarily affects bauxite mining and does not significantly alleviate the oversupply crisis in the ore market [3]. Inventory and Capacity Pressure - The recent decline in aluminum oxide futures prices is primarily due to the arrival of an inventory turning point. Weekly production of aluminum oxide has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the arrival of over 30,000 tons from new Indonesian projects has shifted social inventory from depletion to accumulation [4]. - With the supply side recovering significantly in June, the pressure of overcapacity has increased. Current bauxite prices in Guinea are around 75 USD/ton, allowing domestic aluminum oxide producers to maintain high profit margins at 3300 yuan/ton. If the production cuts in Guinea do not expand further, the domestic bauxite supply is expected to balance throughout the year [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Long the near and short the far in SHFE aluminum futures [5] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the traditional off - season is approaching, the rush for exports may be near the end, the destocking of social inventory has slowed down, and the aluminum price is under pressure. Without other positive factors, it's difficult for the aluminum price to rise further. Attention should be paid to social inventory changes and overseas interference [3] - For alumina, the spot price follows the strong trend of the futures market. The futures price has risen due to disturbances at the Guinea ore end. Although the bauxite imports increased significantly from January to April and there may be no supply gap even if the Axis mine stops production completely, there are concerns about the expansion of restrictions [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot and Futures - On May 19, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of Yangtze River A00 aluminum decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. The Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20,150 yuan/ton, and its spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,110 yuan/ton, and its spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [1] - On May 19, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,125 yuan/ton, closed at 20,110 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.2%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 199,900 lots, an increase of 63,926 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 201,358 lots, a decrease of 2,699 lots [1] Alumina Spot and Futures - On May 19, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,025 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,950 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,025 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2] - On May 19, 2025, the main contract of alumina futures opened at 2,938 yuan/ton, closed at 3,127 yuan/ton, up 184 yuan/ton (6.25%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 2,886,512 lots, an increase of 1,465,036 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 310,945 lots, a decrease of 32,504 lots [2] Inventory - As of May 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 585,000 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 393,450 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [1] Market Transactions - On May 19, 2025, 2,000 tons of alumina spot were traded in Henan at a cash - on - delivery ex - factory price of 3,000 yuan/ton. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered to purchase 10,000 tons of alumina spot at a delivered price between 3,400 - 3,470 yuan/ton. 10,000 tons of alumina spot were traded in Shanxi at a cash - on - delivery ex - factory price of 3,150 yuan/ton [3]

有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格短期暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿 的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。五一假期间检查组再次入驻山 西地区，节后相关部门加强对矿山检查。受安全环保、资源整合 及品位下降等影响，国内矿整体供应仍呈现紧缺的状态，复产矿 山以及存量矿山的产出稳定性有待观察。进口方面，市场成交处 于僵持阶段，矿石销售出现阶段性困难，几矿（45/3）暂时报价 70 美元/干吨。几内亚政府陆续撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题进 一步升级，Axis 矿区在前几日已经被列入政府撤销采矿许可证名 单。该矿区包含顺达矿业等矿业公司，涉及产能约 4000 万吨/ 年，规模较大令市场对远期矿石供应担忧加剧。到货方面，期内 新到矿石 409.9 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 324.2 万吨，澳大利 亚资源 80.5 万吨。几内亚至中国的 Cape 船运费小幅下降于 19 美元/吨。 周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿石扰动加剧， 氧化铝期价反弹 [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 氧化铝：震荡 报 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 国内氧化铝新投现变数 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 5 月 | 年 | 11 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★几内亚矿价进一步降低，国内氧化铝新投现变数 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格处于下行通道，山西矿 58/5 的含税报 价 700 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。五一假期间检查组再次 入驻山西地区，节后相关部门加强对矿山检查。受安全环保、资 源整合及品位下降等影响，国内矿整体供应仍呈现紧缺的状态， 复产矿山以及存量矿山的产出稳定性有待观察。进口方面，大型 矿企对二季度长协价格做出修订，几内亚主流矿 45/3 价格下调 至 75 美元/干吨（CIF）。部分低品质散弹矿石报价到 72 美元/ 干吨。国内用户对该价格仍较排斥，远期价格有意压至 CIF 68-70 美元/吨。GIC 码头恢复作业，先前矿山积压库存开始陆续发出。 GIC 方面表示纠纷问题会 ...