证券研究报告 | 2025年08月15日 大行分红率还有多少提升空间？ 行业快评 优于大市 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | |  银行 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 王剑 | 021-60875165 | wangjian@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980518070002 | | 证券分析师： | 陈俊良 | 021-60933163 | chenjunliang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980519010001 | | 证券分析师： | 田维韦 | 021-60875161 | tianweiwei@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520030002 | | 证券分析师： | 张绪政 | 021-60875166 | zhangxuzheng@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525040003 | | 证券分析师： | 刘睿玲 | 021-60375484 | liuruiling@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码： ...

Core Viewpoint - Su Nong Bank is planning to issue subordinated capital bonds to enhance its capital adequacy ratio amid transformation pressures and has reduced cash dividends for the second consecutive year to retain profits for capital replenishment [1][2][4]. Group 1: Capital Management - Su Nong Bank intends to issue subordinated capital bonds with a total scale of no more than 1 billion yuan to strengthen its capital base [1][3]. - As of March 2025, the bank's capital adequacy ratio is 12.91%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points from the end of the previous year [2][3]. - The bank has previously issued subordinated capital bonds in April 2021 and May 2024, with sizes of 500 million yuan and 1 billion yuan, respectively [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Su Nong Bank reported operating income of 4.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.17%, and a net profit of 1.945 billion yuan, up 11.62% [2][5]. - The bank's cash dividend for 2024 was 330 million yuan, with a cash dividend payout ratio of only 16.98%, marking the lowest in nearly eight years [4][5]. - For Q1 2025, the bank achieved operating income of 1.132 billion yuan, a 3.29% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 440 million yuan, up 6.19% [6]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - The bank is focusing on retail transformation, with customer assets under management (AUM) exceeding 118 billion yuan and retail deposits surpassing 100 billion yuan [5]. - The bank's management has indicated that the low dividend payout ratio is due to the need to retain profits for capital replenishment and to enhance risk resistance capabilities [5][6]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.90%, with a provision coverage ratio of 420.03% as of March 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Bank's major shareholder, Qingdao Guoxin Development Group, plans to increase its stake in the bank, potentially becoming the largest shareholder, surpassing Haier Group and Intesa Sanpaolo Bank, due to recognition of the bank's long-term investment value [2][5][6]. Shareholder Changes - Qingdao Guoxin Group intends to increase its shareholding to no more than 19.99%, which would make it the largest shareholder of Qingdao Bank [2][5]. - The current major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing (21.87%), Haier Group (18.14%), and Intesa Sanpaolo Bank (17.5%) [4][5]. Financial Performance - Qingdao Bank reported a revenue of 134.98 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.22%, and a net profit of 42.64 billion yuan, up 20.16% [6]. - For Q1 2025, the bank's revenue was 40.47 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.69%, and a net profit of 12.58 billion yuan, increasing by 16.42% [6]. Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2025, Qingdao Bank's total assets exceeded 700 billion yuan, but its capital adequacy ratio slightly decreased to 13.51% from 13.8% at the end of the previous year [2][7]. - The core tier one capital adequacy ratio was reported at 8.96%, down 0.15 percentage points from the previous year [7]. Dividend Policy - Qingdao Bank plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.60 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 9.31 billion yuan [8]. - The bank has faced investor concerns regarding its declining dividend payout ratio, which has dropped from 44% at the time of listing to around 20% in 2024 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the net profit of listed banks is expected to grow by 1.8% year-on-year for 2024, with a notable increase in growth rate compared to the first three quarters [4][10]. - Revenue decline is narrowing, with a projected revenue growth rate of -0.6% for 2024, an improvement from -1.6% in the previous quarters [11][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic economic recovery and the impact of recent growth-stabilizing policies on banking performance [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Profitability Breakdown - The net interest income for listed banks is expected to decline by 2.3% in 2024, an improvement from a 3.2% decline in the first three quarters [11][12]. - Non-interest income, particularly from investment gains, is projected to increase by 28% due to falling bond yields, partially offsetting revenue pressures [11][12]. - The report notes that the cost-to-income ratio has increased to 32.8%, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point rise year-on-year [7]. 2. Operational Analysis - Asset growth for listed banks has decreased to 7.2%, with loan growth at 7.7%, indicating stable overall growth despite a slight decline [22][23]. - The annualized net interest margin is projected to decrease to 1.43%, primarily due to asset pricing pressures [24]. - The report indicates that the quality of assets remains stable, with non-performing loan ratios showing slight fluctuations but overall stability [7][22]. 3. Dividend and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights a stable dividend payout ratio, with 9 banks increasing their dividend rates compared to the previous year [7]. - Investment recommendations focus on "pro-cyclical and high dividend" strategies, with an average dividend yield of 4.3% for the sector, which remains attractive compared to risk-free rates [7][8]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include Chengdu Bank, Suzhou Bank, and Ningbo Bank, which are expected to benefit from regional economic recovery [8][14].