广发证券认为，30%是当前锂电行业供需平衡的核心临界增速阈值。当前测算26年锂电总需求将达2495GWh，较25年1944GWh同比+28%，尚处于供需紧平 衡的区间;一旦需求增速突破30%，供给端将快速陷入紧缺状态。看好动力和储能需求共同带动锂电周期反转，电池和材料均有望迎来发展新机遇。 固态电池方面，方正证券指出，行业步入由技术验证阶段向量产筹备阶段跨越的关键窗口期，设备与材料端多点突破。 本周最后一个交易日，三大指数集体拉升。板块上来看，碳酸锂期货突破13万元关口，锂电池产业链全线高开。储能60%+固态40%的电池ETF（561910） 盘中大涨超3.36%，实时成交额突破2.17亿元。 | | 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 季 年 多周期 设置 画线 | 浄值 音 × | | --- | --- | --- | | | 分时走势 电池ETF 最新:0.860 均价:0.846 IOPV:0.8602 | | | 0.861 | | | | 0.858 | | | | 0.855 | | | | 0.852 | | | | 0.849 | | | | 0.847 | | | | 0.8 ...

动力：国内乘用车平稳增长+商用车快速渗透，海外新车型周期带动需求超预期 分区域来看：(1)中国：25年抢装带动需求高增，预计26年乘用车平稳增长，商用车快速渗透，单车带 电量提升贡献额外增长。(2)美国：25年大而美法案与FEOC条款调整压制市场需求，预计26年增长趋 缓。(3)欧洲：25年电动化率加速提升，26年碳排放法案+新车型周期驱动增长。(4)其他地区：政策红利 密集释放，助推电动化率提升。该行测算，25-27年全球动力电池需求为1253.4/1520.5/1834.2GWh，同 比增速为26%/21%/21%。 储能：容量电价完善国内大储商业模式，经济性驱动海外储能增长 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，国内乘用车平稳增长+商用车快速渗透，海外新车型周期带 动需求超预期。30%是当前锂电行业供需平衡的核心临界增速阈值。当前测算26年锂电总需求将达 2495GWh，较25年1944GWh同比+28%。该行看好动力和储能需求共同带动锂电周期反转，电池和材料 均有望迎来发展新机遇。 广发证券主要观点如下： 龙头企业盈利能力不佳，扩产意愿不足，需求旺季下主材、辅材价格普涨。该行认为，30%是当前锂电 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略报告|电力设备 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 锂电行业 2026 年投资策略 储能需求驱动周期反转，电池和材料迎来新机遇 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-12-15 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]陈子坤 SAC 执证号：S0260513080001 010-59136690 chenzikun@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈昕 SAC 执证号：S0260522080008 SFC CE No. BWV823 010-59136699 gfchenxin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 黄思悦 SAC 执证号：S0260525070002 0755-23608197 huangsiyue@gf.com.cn -20% -6% 8% 22% 36% 50% 12/24 02/25 05/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 电力设备 沪深300 请注意，陈子坤,黄思悦并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员 会的注册持牌人，不可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium hexafluorophosphate market is entering a reversal phase due to the convergence of increased production capacity concentration among leading companies and a surge in energy storage demand [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current utilization rate of leading lithium hexafluorophosphate producers is high, with operations continuing during the National Day holiday [3]. - Prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate have rebounded sharply, with a three-day increase exceeding the total rise for September, reaching an average of 69,500 yuan per ton by October 13 [4][7]. - The previous price cycle began in 2020, peaking at 590,000 yuan per ton in January 2022 before a significant decline to below 100,000 yuan per ton by the end of 2023 [6][7]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The core driver of the current price increase is the change in supply dynamics, with global energy storage demand becoming a key engine [9]. - From January to August, the domestic energy storage bidding scale exceeded 210 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 150%, with August alone seeing a 517% surge [10]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with a penetration rate exceeding 35% and a year-on-year increase in battery installation of 43% from January to August [11]. Group 3: Supply Side Changes - In 2023, the industry faced a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a low utilization rate of 44% for lithium hexafluorophosphate production capacity [15]. - The tightening of environmental regulations has accelerated the exit of inefficient production capacities, with leading companies achieving over 80% utilization rates while smaller firms struggle [15][16]. - Major players like Tianqi Lithium, Mofang, and Tianji have a combined market share exceeding 60%, indicating a significant increase in market concentration [16][17].