2026-01-26，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于189220元/吨，收于165680元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变 化-6.56%。当日成交量为575675手，持仓量为416719手，前一交易日持仓量438728手，根据SMM现货 报价，目前基差为-4700元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单28646手，较上个交易日变化490手。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场分析 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价178000-185000元/吨，较前一交易日变化10500元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价175000-181000元/吨，较前一交易日变化10500元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2295美元/吨，较 前一日变化20美元/吨。碳酸锂价格近期持续冲高，上游锂盐厂惜售情绪逐渐增强；下游材料厂维持按 需采购节奏，并开始为二月生产备库，但昨日午后随着价格一路震荡快速下跌，散单采购意愿有所上 升，市场询价与成交活跃度有所提高。 根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为108896吨，环比-783吨。其中冶炼厂库存为19834吨，环比+107 吨；下游库存 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 8, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The spot market trading was light, and the basis changed from premium to discount. Considering factors such as cost, supply, demand, and inventory, with repeated news of lithium mine resumption in Jiangxi, high weekly production of lithium carbonate, strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment, light spot market trading, and stagnant demand growth, the short - term fundamentals show a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Under position limits, it is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. The recommended trading strategy is to hold short positions. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On December 8th, the trading volume of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures was 99967 lots (+137860), and the open interest was 593129 lots (+32453). The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts all had certain increases compared to the previous period. [1] Spot Market - As of December 5th, the spot port + warehouse inventory of lithium ore of 30 sample lithium ore traders was 160,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, with salable inventory of 100,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons. Last week, lithium salt prices fluctuated at a high level. Due to contract month - changing and postponed delivery at the ore end, the processing fee space of lithium salt plants increased slightly, and there were more scattered transactions of lithium ore. Overall, lithium ore inventory continued to transfer to lithium salt plants. [1] Cost - The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also increased. [1] Supply - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased, with the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreasing and that from other sources increasing. [1] Demand - Downstream: Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the output of ternary materials decreased. In December, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate and manganese acid lithium decreased, while the output of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand: In November, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; 3C shipments weakened; in December, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries stagnated. [1] Inventory - Registered warehouse receipts were 13120 tons (+2198 tons). Social inventory was destocked, with smelters and other sectors reducing inventory, and downstream was tight. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The lithium carbonate futures market maintained a volatile trend this week. The main contract 2511 closed at 72,880 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.46% and a position volume of 248,640 tons. Spot prices changed little, and spot trading was average. When futures prices declined, it stimulated some point-price procurement demand [2]. - On the supply side, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased slightly to 20,516 tons. Output from various sources such as spodumene, mica, salt lakes, and recycling all showed different degrees of change [2]. - On the consumption side, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.08% month-on-month, while that of ternary materials, cobalt acid lithium, and manganese acid lithium increased. Downstream production was expected to increase, and the demand in the terminal power battery and energy storage markets supported the demand for lithium salts, but the actual replenishment was lower than expected [3]. - In terms of inventory, the total inventory decreased by 705 tons compared to last week. Inventory continued to transfer, with an increase in downstream replenishment inventory and a decrease in smelter inventory [3]. - In terms of profit, lithium ore prices fluctuated slightly, and overseas mines were reluctant to lower prices. Enterprises using externally purchased raw materials relied on futures hedging to balance profits and losses. Enterprises with their own ore sources and salt lake lithium extraction had significant cost advantages and relatively stable profit margins [3]. - The output of lithium hydroxide increased slightly this week. Due to high upstream spodumene prices and production line maintenance, the overall supply capacity of the lithium hydroxide market remained tight [4]. Strategy - The futures market maintained a volatile trend in the short term. There was some support from consumption, and the pre - National Day replenishment demand still existed. Although the disturbance in the ore sector weakened, it did not end completely. If mines resumed production and consumption weakened in the future, the market might be weak [5]. - For unilateral operations, short - term range trading was recommended. If the market rebounded significantly, selling hedging could be considered. There were no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].