Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The absolute price of zinc has declined, and the spot market trading has improved. However, the spot premium remains weak. The cost of imported ore TC is rising, and the smelting profit is increasing. The supply pressure in August remains high, and the social inventory is showing a cumulative trend. The zinc price is under pressure due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure. [4] Key Data Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$2.69/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 0 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -60 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -40 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On July 31, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,625 yuan/ton and closed at 22,345 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 182,660 lots, and the open interest was 110,481 lots. The highest price was 22,685 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,295 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 103,200 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 104,800 tons, a decrease of 4,250 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - The spot market trading has improved as downstream buyers purchase at low prices, but the spot premium remains weak. The domestic ore tender price for the new month is not settled, and the imported ore TC is rising, with the highest offer reaching $85/ton. The smelting profit is increasing, and the supply pressure in August remains high. The smelting plants have sufficient raw material reserves and low procurement enthusiasm for ores, so the TC is expected to continue rising. The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, but the consumption growth is lower than the supply growth, and the social inventory is accumulating, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. The zinc price is under pressure due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The Russian mine of Zijin plans to shut down in June, causing the futures price to remain strong, while the spot market is more sluggish, with imports having a large impact and spot premiums further declining. The fundamental data shows a weak trend, with TC still rising and supply pressure remaining high. The opening of the zinc ingot import window increases domestic supply pressure, and the previously low inventory that supported zinc prices shows signs of accumulation. If this trend continues, the downside space for zinc prices may open up. In the spot market, due to increased inventory and a shift towards a looser supply, the high spot premiums have significantly declined. The consumption side may face challenges in May, as the window for rush exports is approaching the end and there is an over - consumption situation, so consumption may weaken month - on - month after May. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$27.34 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 190 yuan/ton to 22,840 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium dropped by 85 yuan/ton to 245 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 260 yuan/ton to 22,890 yuan/ton, and the SMM Guangdong zinc spot premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 295 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 220 yuan/ton to 22,840 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin zinc spot premium dropped by 55 yuan/ton to 245 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On May 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,265 yuan/ton and closed at 22,710 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 219,108 lots, an increase of 48,548 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 104,941 lots, a decrease of 7,094 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 22,780 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 22,160 yuan/ton. [1] Inventory - As of May 12, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 85,500 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 14, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 167,050 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous trading day. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - Market sentiment remains positive, but the spot market is significantly impacted by imported zinc ingots. The downstream prefers low - priced imported goods, leading to a further decline in spot premiums. The fundamental data shows a weakening trend, with TC still rising and supply pressure remaining high. The opening of the zinc ingot import window increases domestic supply pressure, and the previously low inventory that supported zinc prices shows signs of accumulation. If a trend of inventory accumulation forms, the downside space for zinc prices may open. In the spot market, due to increased inventory and a shift to a more relaxed supply, the high spot premiums have significantly declined. Consumption in May may face challenges, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month weakening after May [3]. 3. Summary of Related Data a. Spot and Futures Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is - 27.37 dollars/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped 70 yuan/ton to 22650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped 100 yuan/ton to 330 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped 90 yuan/ton to 22630 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped 120 yuan/ton to 310 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped 70 yuan/ton to 22620 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped 100 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On 2025 - 05 - 13, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22530 yuan/ton and closed at 22325 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 170560 lots, a decrease of 59350 lots from the previous day, and the position was 112035 lots, a decrease of 5995 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22135 yuan/ton and 22655 yuan/ton [1]. b. Inventory Data - As of 2025 - 05 - 12, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 8.55 million tons, an increase of 0.14 million tons from the same period last week. As of 2025 - 05 - 13, the LME zinc inventory was 167950 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from the previous trading day [2].