瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 沪锡市场周报 供需两弱交投平淡 预计锡价震荡调整 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 研究员： 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周沪锡主力震荡下跌，周线涨跌幅为-0.33%，振幅1.72%。截止本周主力合约收盘报 价265930元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美国8月制造业PMI初值53.3，意外创三年多新高，通胀压力加剧。工信部等部 门：进一步规范光伏产业竞争秩序，遏制低价无序竞争。基本面，缅甸佤邦虽重启采矿证审批，但 实际出矿需至四季度；刚果Bisie矿山计划分阶段恢复生产，目前锡矿加工费维持历史低位。冶炼 端，7月产量回升主要受部分企业复产、清理中间品等多重因素影响；不过云南产区原料短缺依旧 严峻；江西产区废料回收体系承压，开工率保持在较低水平。需求端，下游加工企业由于传统淡季， 大部分企业生产接货仅维持刚需，订单差强人意。近期锡价震荡，下游多数企业逢低刚需采买，部 分后点价订单。现货 ...

Price Overview - On May 30, the spot price of 1 tin ingot in Shanghai was quoted at 251,500.00 CNY/ton, which is a premium of 1,200.00 CNY/ton over the futures main price of 250,300.00 CNY/ton [1] - The national tin price list on May 30 shows various market prices for 1 tin ingot, with quotes ranging from 251,500 CNY/ton in Guangdong to 252,750 CNY/ton in Shanghai [2] Futures Market - On May 30, the closing price of the Shanghai tin futures main contract was 250,300.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.87%. The highest price reached was 257,600.00 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 250,000.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 149,442 contracts [2] Production and Inventory - In May 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month-on-month and by 11.24% year-on-year [3] - As of May 30, the inventory of Shanghai tin futures recorded 8,107.00 tons, a decrease of 338.00 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - According to New Lake Futures research, current consumption shows some elasticity, supported by solid basic consumption in key end markets and strong performance in the new energy vehicle sector. However, sensitivity to price changes is high, and the white goods and consumer electronics markets are entering a low season, leading to insufficient overall consumption momentum [5] - There is an expectation of increased overseas mineral supply, but it is currently difficult to transmit this to domestic smelters, which are maintaining low operating rates. Domestic inventory levels are neutral, while overseas inventories are low. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, suggesting that tin prices may experience a period of adjustment [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated and adjusted, with a weekly decline of 0.29% and an amplitude of 2.64%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 259,540 yuan/ton [4]. - Macroscopically, the bilateral trade agreement between the US and the UK eased market tensions, the US dollar index rose, and China is improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and will launch high - quality projects worth about 3 trillion yuan this year [4]. - Fundamentally, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and Congo is progressing, which helps relieve the shortage of tin ore. However, in the smelting sector, production in Yunnan and Jiangxi is restricted. In the demand sector, the orders of solder processing enterprises are stable, and the operating rate of tin - plated sheet enterprises is stable, but there is no obvious increase in demand. The domestic inventory has continued to decline recently [4]. - Technically, the trading is light with low positions. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the range of 255,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a weekly decline of 0.29% and an amplitude of 2.64%. The closing price of the main contract was 259,540 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: Abroad, the US - UK trade agreement eased market tensions, the pound reversed its upward trend after the Bank of England's interest - rate cut, and the US dollar index rose. Domestically, China is improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and will launch high - quality projects worth about 3 trillion yuan this year [4]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and Congo is progressing, which helps relieve the shortage of tin ore. In the smelting sector, Yunnan is facing raw - material pressure, and Jiangxi is restricted by scrap supply, resulting in reduced production. In the demand sector, the orders of solder processing enterprises are stable, and the operating rate of tin - plated sheet enterprises is stable, but there is no obvious increase in demand. The domestic inventory has continued to decline recently [4]. - **Technical - aspect**: The trading is light with low positions. Focus on the competition around MA10. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate within a range [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the range of 255,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of May 9, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 259,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,090 yuan/ton or 0.8% from April 29. As of May 8, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 31,877 US dollars/ton, an increase of 529 US dollars/ton or 1.69% from May 1 [7][10]. - **Price Ratio**: As of May 9, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange tin to nickel was 2.12, an increase of 0.01 from April 29. As of May 8, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.19, a decrease of 0.08 from April 30 [15]. - **Position**: As of May 9, 2025, the position of Shanghai tin was 56,313 lots, an increase of 184 lots or 0.33% from April 29. As of a certain time, the net position of the top 20 was 1,510 lots, an increase of 773 lots from April 30, 2025 [18]. 3.3 Industrial Chain - **Supply - side** - **Tin Ore Import**: In March 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 8,322.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.94%. From January to March, the cumulative import was 26,908.88 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55.41% [23]. - **Refined Tin Production**: In April 2025, the refined tin production was 15,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. From January to February, the cumulative production was 29,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.97% [24]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On April 23, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 7,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan/ton or 16.67% from April 3. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan/ton or 11.54% from April 3 [28]. - **Refined Tin Import and Export**: As of May 8, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 16,983.01 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,075.05 yuan/ton or 15.33% from April 28. In March 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 2,100.63 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 146.52%. From January to March, the cumulative import was 7,155.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.87%. In March 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,672.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.51% and a year - on - year increase of 12.19%. From January to March, the cumulative export was 6,240.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 76.78% [34]. - **Inventory**: As of May 8, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,755 tons, unchanged from April 30. As of April 30, 2025, the total tin inventory was 8,909 tons, a decrease of 340 tons or 3.68% from the previous week. As of May 9, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 8,402 tons, a decrease of 204 tons or 2.37% from April 29 [40]. - **Demand - side** - **Semiconductor Index**: On May 8, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 4,430.44, an increase of 182.78 or 4.3% from May 1. From January to March 2025, the integrated circuit production was 10,946,586.3 million pieces, an increase of 1,136,586.3 million pieces or 11.59% from the same period last year [43]. - **Tin - plated Sheet**: As of March 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons or 10% from February. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 169,082.83 tons, an increase of 31,991.04 tons or 23.34% from February [46].