Group 1: Report Summary - The weekly closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin was 265,930 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.33% and an amplitude of 1.72% [7] - Macroscopically, the preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a new high in more than three years, intensifying inflationary pressures. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price disorderly competition [7] - Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the approval of mining licenses, actual ore production will not occur until the fourth quarter. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels [7] - In the smelting sector, the increase in production in July was mainly due to multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in the Yunnan production area remains severe, and the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level [7] - On the demand side, due to the traditional off - season, most downstream processing enterprises only maintain rigid demand for production and procurement, and orders are mediocre. Recently, tin prices have fluctuated, and most downstream enterprises make rigid - demand purchases at low prices, with some post - pricing orders [7] - Technically, with low positions and caution from both long and short sides, and support at the lower edge of the range, it is expected to mainly fluctuate and adjust [7] - The recommended strategy is to temporarily wait and see or go long lightly at low prices, focusing on the 265,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton range [7] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market - As of August 22, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 265,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton from August 15, a decline of 0.11%. As of August 21, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 33,475 US dollars/ton, an increase of 40 US dollars/ton from August 15, a rise of 0.12%. The spot premium remained stable at 400 yuan/ton [7][12] - As of August 22, 2025, the current ratio of tin to nickel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 2.23, an increase of 0.02 from August 15. As of August 21, 2025, the Shanghai - LME tin ratio was 7.96, a decrease of 0.03 from August 14 [16] - As of August 22, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Tin was 48,043 lots, a decrease of 1,832 lots from August 15, a decline of 3.67%. The net position of the top 20 was - 3,051 lots, a decrease of 1,349 lots from August 18 [22][23] Group 3: Industrial Chain - Supply Side - In July 2025, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 10,277.61 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.58%. From January to July this year, the imported tin ore concentrates totaled 72,406.18 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.15% [28] - In July 2025, the output of refined tin was 15,448 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8%. From January to July, the cumulative output of refined tin was 87,175 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.34% [29] - On August 22, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates was 6,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from August 15; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrates was 10,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from August 15 [34] - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of 40% tin concentrates was 254,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from August 15; the average price of 60% tin concentrates was 258,000 yuan/ton, also unchanged from August 15 [34] - As of August 22, 2025, the import loss of tin was 6,131.93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,314.3 yuan/ton from August 15 [39] - In July 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 2,166.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.34% and a year - on - year increase of 157.87%. From January to July, the cumulative import of refined tin was 15,110.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.88%. In July 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,672.77 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. From January to July, the cumulative export of refined tin was 13,463.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.99% [40] - As of August 21, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 1,740 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from August 14, a decline of 4.92%. As of August 22, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,491 tons, a decrease of 301 tons from the previous week, a decline of 3.86%. The tin futures inventory was 7,053 tons, a decrease of 373 tons from August 15, a decline of 5.02% [45] Group 4: Industrial Chain - Demand Side - On August 21, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 5,603.26, a decrease of 282.23 from August 14, a decline of 4.8%. From January to July 2025, the output of integrated circuits was 29,454,570.7 million pieces, an increase of 5,009,313.4 million pieces compared with the same period last year, an increase of 20.49% [48] - As of June 2025, the output of tin - plated sheets was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from May 2025, a rise of 10%. As of July 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 206,020.05 tons, an increase of 73,104.23 tons from June, an increase of 55% [51]

Price Overview - On May 30, the spot price of 1 tin ingot in Shanghai was quoted at 251,500.00 CNY/ton, which is a premium of 1,200.00 CNY/ton over the futures main price of 250,300.00 CNY/ton [1] - The national tin price list on May 30 shows various market prices for 1 tin ingot, with quotes ranging from 251,500 CNY/ton in Guangdong to 252,750 CNY/ton in Shanghai [2] Futures Market - On May 30, the closing price of the Shanghai tin futures main contract was 250,300.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.87%. The highest price reached was 257,600.00 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 250,000.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 149,442 contracts [2] Production and Inventory - In May 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month-on-month and by 11.24% year-on-year [3] - As of May 30, the inventory of Shanghai tin futures recorded 8,107.00 tons, a decrease of 338.00 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - According to New Lake Futures research, current consumption shows some elasticity, supported by solid basic consumption in key end markets and strong performance in the new energy vehicle sector. However, sensitivity to price changes is high, and the white goods and consumer electronics markets are entering a low season, leading to insufficient overall consumption momentum [5] - There is an expectation of increased overseas mineral supply, but it is currently difficult to transmit this to domestic smelters, which are maintaining low operating rates. Domestic inventory levels are neutral, while overseas inventories are low. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, suggesting that tin prices may experience a period of adjustment [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated and adjusted, with a weekly decline of 0.29% and an amplitude of 2.64%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 259,540 yuan/ton [4]. - Macroscopically, the bilateral trade agreement between the US and the UK eased market tensions, the US dollar index rose, and China is improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and will launch high - quality projects worth about 3 trillion yuan this year [4]. - Fundamentally, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and Congo is progressing, which helps relieve the shortage of tin ore. However, in the smelting sector, production in Yunnan and Jiangxi is restricted. In the demand sector, the orders of solder processing enterprises are stable, and the operating rate of tin - plated sheet enterprises is stable, but there is no obvious increase in demand. The domestic inventory has continued to decline recently [4]. - Technically, the trading is light with low positions. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the range of 255,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a weekly decline of 0.29% and an amplitude of 2.64%. The closing price of the main contract was 259,540 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: Abroad, the US - UK trade agreement eased market tensions, the pound reversed its upward trend after the Bank of England's interest - rate cut, and the US dollar index rose. Domestically, China is improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and will launch high - quality projects worth about 3 trillion yuan this year [4]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and Congo is progressing, which helps relieve the shortage of tin ore. In the smelting sector, Yunnan is facing raw - material pressure, and Jiangxi is restricted by scrap supply, resulting in reduced production. In the demand sector, the orders of solder processing enterprises are stable, and the operating rate of tin - plated sheet enterprises is stable, but there is no obvious increase in demand. The domestic inventory has continued to decline recently [4]. - **Technical - aspect**: The trading is light with low positions. Focus on the competition around MA10. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate within a range [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the range of 255,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of May 9, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 259,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,090 yuan/ton or 0.8% from April 29. As of May 8, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 31,877 US dollars/ton, an increase of 529 US dollars/ton or 1.69% from May 1 [7][10]. - **Price Ratio**: As of May 9, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange tin to nickel was 2.12, an increase of 0.01 from April 29. As of May 8, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.19, a decrease of 0.08 from April 30 [15]. - **Position**: As of May 9, 2025, the position of Shanghai tin was 56,313 lots, an increase of 184 lots or 0.33% from April 29. As of a certain time, the net position of the top 20 was 1,510 lots, an increase of 773 lots from April 30, 2025 [18]. 3.3 Industrial Chain - **Supply - side** - **Tin Ore Import**: In March 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 8,322.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.94%. From January to March, the cumulative import was 26,908.88 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55.41% [23]. - **Refined Tin Production**: In April 2025, the refined tin production was 15,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. From January to February, the cumulative production was 29,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.97% [24]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On April 23, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 7,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan/ton or 16.67% from April 3. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan/ton or 11.54% from April 3 [28]. - **Refined Tin Import and Export**: As of May 8, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 16,983.01 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,075.05 yuan/ton or 15.33% from April 28. In March 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 2,100.63 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 146.52%. From January to March, the cumulative import was 7,155.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.87%. In March 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,672.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.51% and a year - on - year increase of 12.19%. From January to March, the cumulative export was 6,240.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 76.78% [34]. - **Inventory**: As of May 8, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,755 tons, unchanged from April 30. As of April 30, 2025, the total tin inventory was 8,909 tons, a decrease of 340 tons or 3.68% from the previous week. As of May 9, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 8,402 tons, a decrease of 204 tons or 2.37% from April 29 [40]. - **Demand - side** - **Semiconductor Index**: On May 8, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 4,430.44, an increase of 182.78 or 4.3% from May 1. From January to March 2025, the integrated circuit production was 10,946,586.3 million pieces, an increase of 1,136,586.3 million pieces or 11.59% from the same period last year [43]. - **Tin - plated Sheet**: As of March 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons or 10% from February. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 169,082.83 tons, an increase of 31,991.04 tons or 23.34% from February [46].