Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets have seen a rare phenomenon where both technology stocks and gold have risen simultaneously, reflecting the deep intertwining of "uncertainty" and "certainty" during economic transformation. Gold serves as a safety net against global economic divergence and geopolitical risks, while technology stocks represent market bets on future growth driven by industrial transformation and technological breakthroughs [1]. Group 1: Performance Fundamentals - The company has established a solid performance foundation through "multi-business synergy + global layout," demonstrating strong anti-cyclical capabilities amid global economic divergence and intensified domestic competition. In the first half of the 2025-2026 fiscal year, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 3.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%, and a net profit of HKD 168 million, up 1.1% year-on-year [2]. - The core business of die-casting machines generated revenue of HKD 2.26 billion, accounting for 69.4% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 39.5%. The die-casting segment's profit reached HKD 230 million, up 35.3% year-on-year, continuing to lead industry development [2][3]. - The company's die-casting machine business has maintained stable demand by focusing on key growth sectors such as new energy vehicles and new materials, leveraging its technological advantages to secure orders from leading clients [2]. Group 2: Business Segments - The injection molding machine business achieved revenue of HKD 920 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with notable product structure optimization. For instance, the FA3550T large two-plate injection molding machine was customized for a client in the new energy vehicle sector, addressing market lightweight demands [4]. - The CNC machining center business has enhanced market reach through continuous product performance iterations and management optimization [4]. - The company has successfully penetrated emerging markets, with injection molding machine sales in Vietnam increasing by 150% year-on-year, and has established strong partnerships with leading clients in various sectors [5]. Group 3: Growth Drivers - The company is actively positioning itself in the magnesium alloy sector, which has become a core material for lightweight transformation in industries such as automotive and robotics. The sales revenue of magnesium alloy equipment is expected to grow over 400% by 2025 [7][8]. - The TPI technology developed by the company enhances component strength by 30%, making it a core supplier for leading automotive manufacturers. Recent collaborations in the humanoid robot sector further demonstrate the company's strategic foresight [10][11]. - The company has also ventured into the field of amorphous alloys, developing specialized die-casting units that meet the stringent requirements of high-strength and high-elasticity components for various applications [12]. Group 4: Valuation Potential - The company's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio stands at 12.78 times, positioned at the 30.31 percentile, indicating that the current valuation does not fully reflect its growth premium. The company has shown steady revenue growth despite a complex environment, with new businesses like magnesium alloys entering a rapid growth phase [13]. Conclusion - The company, as a leader in high-end equipment manufacturing, possesses both performance certainty supported by diverse business operations and long-term growth potential driven by technology. Its positioning as a "scarce value target" in the manufacturing upgrade wave is becoming increasingly clear, with ongoing advancements in new business areas likely to lead to further valuation reassessment [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 28.00, compared to the latest closing price of RMB 21.62, indicating a potential upside of 29.5% [1][7]. Core Insights - The company is facing ongoing pressure in its overseas business while exploring new growth opportunities in magnesium alloy applications. The domestic operations are relatively stable, supported by a solid order backlog from key clients [5][6]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in performance, with revenue of RMB 1.54 billion, down 5.6% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of RMB 0.11 billion, reflecting a 170% decrease compared to the previous quarter [4][5]. - The company has successfully entered the magnesium alloy market, which is expected to provide new growth avenues, particularly in the automotive and robotics sectors [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 6.76 billion in 2025, with an 8.2% growth rate, and RMB 7.37 billion in 2026, with an 8.9% growth rate [3][20]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be RMB 0.5 billion, a significant reduction of 68.9% from previous estimates, while the 2026 profit is projected at RMB 3.5 billion [7][20]. - Key financial ratios include a P/E ratio of 150.5 for 2025 and 19.2 for 2026, indicating a substantial valuation adjustment due to the anticipated profit decline [3][7]. Performance Review - The company's gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 11.2%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin fell to -0.7% [5][12]. - The domestic operations were impacted by a fire at the Tianjin factory, causing delays in product deliveries, while the overseas subsidiary faced losses due to market fluctuations in Europe and North America [5][6]. Growth Prospects - The company is focusing on expanding its magnesium alloy product line, having already secured its first customer for a magnesium alloy project, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [6][11]. - The integration of new orders in North America and organizational restructuring in Europe are anticipated to improve performance in the upcoming quarters [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in performance, with a record high quarterly performance in Q2 2025, reporting revenue of 2.746 billion yuan, up 15.89% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 345 million yuan, up 15.15% year-on-year [2] - The three main business segments, injection molding machines, die-casting machines, and rubber machines, are all progressing well, contributing to the company's steady growth [2] - The company has seen significant growth in overseas revenue, which increased by 27.01% year-on-year, indicating successful expansion in international markets [3] Revenue and Profitability - For H1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.746 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 31.08%, slightly down by 2.53 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The sales net profit margin for H1 2025 was 12.90%, showing a minor decrease of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company maintained high R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 133 million yuan, up 8.00% year-on-year [4] Product Performance - The injection molding machine segment generated revenue of 1.932 billion yuan, up 13.09% year-on-year, driven by recovering demand in the industry [2] - The die-casting machine segment saw revenue of 555 million yuan, up 33.29% year-on-year, attributed to the introduction of new products and successful penetration into markets such as home appliances and 3C [2] - The rubber machine segment achieved revenue of 119 million yuan, up 23.85% year-on-year, with a strong order backlog and successful overseas market expansion [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in the injection molding and die-casting machine sectors, with projected net profits of 704.95 million yuan, 832.81 million yuan, and 979.31 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The current stock price corresponds to dynamic P/E ratios of 17, 14, and 12 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting the company's leading position in its industry [6]

01 事件概述 公司披露2024年年报及2025年第一季度报告，公司2024年全年营业收入为62.5亿元，同比+22.5%，归母净利润为1.2亿元，同比+128.2%，位于此前业绩预告中枢偏 下位置；公司2025Q1实现营业收入12.7亿元，同比-14.2%，环比-17.8%，归母净利润0.04亿元，同比-93.7%，环比-78.2%。 02 分析判断 ► 2024Q4盈利改善 2025Q1百炼业绩承压。 1）营收端： 公司2024Q4营收为15.5亿元，同比+20.6%，环比-5.0%，增长主要原因为核心客户赛力斯、理想销量稳健向上及新项目量产爬坡。2025Q1营收为12.7 亿元，同环比下降，源自核心客户赛力斯处于车型迭代周期，单季度销量同比/环比分别下降42.5%/57.2%，叠加百炼欧洲和墨西哥工厂客户订单减少，对公司营收造 成负面影响； 2）利润端： 公司2024Q4归母净利润为0.2亿元，同比大幅增长原因为车身结构件放量及百炼集团回暖，公司2025Q1毛利率下滑至13.4%（同 比-3.2pcts），主因为欧洲能源价格（欧洲天然气均价1,441万美元/吨，同比+64.6%，环比+6.2%）大幅上涨 ...