年初以来，全球资本市场呈现出科技股与黄金同步上扬的罕见格局，这一看似违背"风险与避险资产跷 跷板"规律的现象，实则精准映射了经济转型期的核心特征——"不确定性"与"确定性"的深度交织。 黄金作为传统避险资产，成为资金对冲全球经济分化、地缘风险加剧的"安全垫"；而科技股则承载了市 场对产业变革、技术突破驱动未来增长的"押注券"。 在此背景下，兼具确定性与成长潜力的资产更显珍贵，力劲科技作为高端装备制造领域的龙头企业，正 以多元业务筑牢基本盘，以技术突破打开增长空间，是把握制造升级浪潮的优质标的。 一、多维支撑的业绩基本盘 这得益于以压铸机为核心，注塑机、CNC加工中心协同发展的"三位一体"业务架构，各板块在技术研 发、客户资源、市场渠道上形成显著协同效应，有效对冲单一行业波动风险。 其中，压铸机业务作为核心支柱，2025-2026财年上半年实现收入22.6亿港元，约占总收入的69.4%，同 比增长39.5%；该分部业绩2.3亿港元，同比增长35.3%，持续领跑行业发展。 国内市场方面，公司的压铸机业务通过深耕新能源汽车、新材料等核心增长赛道，实现需求端的稳定承 接。 在新能源汽车领域，一体化压铸技术从电池托盘、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 28.00, compared to the latest closing price of RMB 21.62, indicating a potential upside of 29.5% [1][7]. Core Insights - The company is facing ongoing pressure in its overseas business while exploring new growth opportunities in magnesium alloy applications. The domestic operations are relatively stable, supported by a solid order backlog from key clients [5][6]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in performance, with revenue of RMB 1.54 billion, down 5.6% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of RMB 0.11 billion, reflecting a 170% decrease compared to the previous quarter [4][5]. - The company has successfully entered the magnesium alloy market, which is expected to provide new growth avenues, particularly in the automotive and robotics sectors [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 6.76 billion in 2025, with an 8.2% growth rate, and RMB 7.37 billion in 2026, with an 8.9% growth rate [3][20]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be RMB 0.5 billion, a significant reduction of 68.9% from previous estimates, while the 2026 profit is projected at RMB 3.5 billion [7][20]. - Key financial ratios include a P/E ratio of 150.5 for 2025 and 19.2 for 2026, indicating a substantial valuation adjustment due to the anticipated profit decline [3][7]. Performance Review - The company's gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 11.2%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin fell to -0.7% [5][12]. - The domestic operations were impacted by a fire at the Tianjin factory, causing delays in product deliveries, while the overseas subsidiary faced losses due to market fluctuations in Europe and North America [5][6]. Growth Prospects - The company is focusing on expanding its magnesium alloy product line, having already secured its first customer for a magnesium alloy project, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [6][11]. - The integration of new orders in North America and organizational restructuring in Europe are anticipated to improve performance in the upcoming quarters [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in performance, with a record high quarterly performance in Q2 2025, reporting revenue of 2.746 billion yuan, up 15.89% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 345 million yuan, up 15.15% year-on-year [2] - The three main business segments, injection molding machines, die-casting machines, and rubber machines, are all progressing well, contributing to the company's steady growth [2] - The company has seen significant growth in overseas revenue, which increased by 27.01% year-on-year, indicating successful expansion in international markets [3] Revenue and Profitability - For H1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.746 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 31.08%, slightly down by 2.53 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The sales net profit margin for H1 2025 was 12.90%, showing a minor decrease of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company maintained high R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 133 million yuan, up 8.00% year-on-year [4] Product Performance - The injection molding machine segment generated revenue of 1.932 billion yuan, up 13.09% year-on-year, driven by recovering demand in the industry [2] - The die-casting machine segment saw revenue of 555 million yuan, up 33.29% year-on-year, attributed to the introduction of new products and successful penetration into markets such as home appliances and 3C [2] - The rubber machine segment achieved revenue of 119 million yuan, up 23.85% year-on-year, with a strong order backlog and successful overseas market expansion [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in the injection molding and die-casting machine sectors, with projected net profits of 704.95 million yuan, 832.81 million yuan, and 979.31 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The current stock price corresponds to dynamic P/E ratios of 17, 14, and 12 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting the company's leading position in its industry [6]

01 事件概述 公司披露2024年年报及2025年第一季度报告，公司2024年全年营业收入为62.5亿元，同比+22.5%，归母净利润为1.2亿元，同比+128.2%，位于此前业绩预告中枢偏 下位置；公司2025Q1实现营业收入12.7亿元，同比-14.2%，环比-17.8%，归母净利润0.04亿元，同比-93.7%，环比-78.2%。 02 分析判断 ► 2024Q4盈利改善 2025Q1百炼业绩承压。 1）营收端： 公司2024Q4营收为15.5亿元，同比+20.6%，环比-5.0%，增长主要原因为核心客户赛力斯、理想销量稳健向上及新项目量产爬坡。2025Q1营收为12.7 亿元，同环比下降，源自核心客户赛力斯处于车型迭代周期，单季度销量同比/环比分别下降42.5%/57.2%，叠加百炼欧洲和墨西哥工厂客户订单减少，对公司营收造 成负面影响； 2）利润端： 公司2024Q4归母净利润为0.2亿元，同比大幅增长原因为车身结构件放量及百炼集团回暖，公司2025Q1毛利率下滑至13.4%（同 比-3.2pcts），主因为欧洲能源价格（欧洲天然气均价1,441万美元/吨，同比+64.6%，环比+6.2%）大幅上涨 ...