Group 1 - The current spot price of electrolytic nickel in Shanghai is reported at 146,450.00 CNY/ton, which is a premium of 5,510.00 CNY/ton over the futures main contract price of 140,940.00 CNY/ton [1] - On January 14, the futures market closed with the main contract for nickel at 140,940.00 CNY/ton, showing a slight decline of 0.11%, with a daily trading volume of 1,070,694 contracts [2] - The inventory of nickel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 836 tons to 40,272 tons compared to the previous trading day [3] Group 2 - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association (APNI) announced a significant reduction in the planned nickel ore production for 2026 to approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons in 2025 [3] - A report from Wengang Futures indicates that there is still significant oversupply pressure in the nickel market, with increasing inventory constraining the potential for price increases, although domestic liquidity is expected to provide some support for prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are experiencing wide - range fluctuations due to capital games in the market [1] - The stainless - steel market has weak supply and demand fundamentals, and is being affected by news about Indonesian nickel mines [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 125,410, down 2,590 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,990, down 85 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 650,804, a decrease of 444,527 from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 249,426, a decrease of 115,671 from T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 124,150, down 3,050 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 899, up 6 from T - 1. In the stainless - steel sector, the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) is 13,050, unchanged from T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesian Nickel Mine News**: The Indonesian forestry working group has taken over a more than 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month. The Indonesian government will sanction 190 mining companies due to non - compliance with regulations. The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026 and may reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [2][5][6] - **Other News**: China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. The New York Fed President and a Fed governor made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December. China will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [3][5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [6]

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll data has been significantly revised downwards, with a reduction of 910,000 jobs, marking the largest downward revision since 2000, which increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [1] Economic Indicators - As of August, the consumer price index (CPI) remained stable month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while the core CPI rose by 0.9%, marking a four-month consecutive increase [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month stabilization after a decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, narrowing the decline by 0.7 percentage points [1] Nickel Market Dynamics - Indonesia's PNBP policy is restricting the issuance of nickel resources, increasing supply costs, while domestic trade maintains stable premiums [1] - The Philippines has seen a recovery in nickel ore supply, but domestic nickel ore port inventories are declining, leading to tighter raw material availability [1] - On the smelting side, major companies maintained stable production in July, with some smelters increasing output and new capacity being introduced, resulting in a slight increase in refined nickel production [1] Demand and Pricing Trends - The profitability of stainless steel mills has improved, leading to increased production, while the production and sales of new energy vehicles are rising, although demand for ternary batteries remains limited [1] - Recent nickel prices have declined, prompting downstream purchasing at lower prices, with stable spot premiums and increases in both domestic and overseas LME inventories [1] Technical Analysis - There is a significant divergence in positions with increased holdings and price adjustments, indicating a wide range of fluctuations in the market [1] - It is suggested to maintain a wait-and-see approach while monitoring the support level at 12.0 [1]