Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core View of the Report - The supply and demand in the nickel market are currently weak. The supply cost of nickel resources has increased due to the PNBP policy in Indonesia, and the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, resulting in a tight raw material situation. Some non - integrated smelters have chosen to reduce production due to profit losses. On the demand side, stainless steel mills have compressed profits and reduced production of the 300 - series, while the demand for ternary batteries has declined despite the continued increase in new energy vehicle production and sales. The domestic social inventory has increased significantly, and overseas inventory has also accumulated again. Technically, it is in a range - bound adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly on rallies [2] Group 3 - Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,550 yuan/ton, up 1,170 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,215 dollars/ton, up 150 dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 54,128 hands, down 8,675 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 16,072 hands, down 927 hands. The LME nickel inventory is 207,288 tons, up 708 tons. The上期所 nickel inventory is 25,047 tons, up 125 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 10,038 tons, up 720 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,049 tons, down 506 tons [2] 现货 Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,100 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 122,000 yuan/ton, up 1,400 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,550 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 210.81 dollars/ton, up 4.01 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 3.9272 million tons, up 1.0131 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 8.9649 million tons, up 0.2465 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 73.42 dollars/ton, down 5.44 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, up 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, up 31,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, down 39,600 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, up 18,500 tons [2] Industry News - In the US, the CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding the expected 2.6%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3%, in line with expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected for five consecutive months. The EU trade commissioner said there are still significant differences in some key areas in the negotiation. The Central Urban Work Conference pointed out that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources. The US Treasury Secretary said there is no need to worry about the suspension of additional tariffs [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. The domestic inventory is decreasing, while the overseas inventory remains stable. Technically, there is a rebound with reduced volume and positions, and the price has stood above the MA10. It is expected to be in a state of oscillatory adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 122,710 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 510 yuan/ton. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 1,5490 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 45 US dollars/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel is - 1,959 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,021 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 199,092 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,014 tons, and the LME nickel cancelled warrants are 27,264 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,014 tons. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,616 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,459 tons, and the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 21,192 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 35 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 123,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 123,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the main NI contract is 1,190 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 179.97 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.63 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 291.41 million tons, with an increase of 137.89 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 696.86 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 29.02 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 78.86 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 32.99 US dollars/ton. The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,700 metal tons, with a decrease of 1,100 metal tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 18,746.54 tons, with an increase of 10,187.11 tons. The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 182.43 million tons, with a decrease of 775,000 tons. The total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 611,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 520 tons, and the import volume of ferronickel is 816,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 196,400 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - In the US, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in May were 139,000, higher than the market expectation of 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. Some Fed officials have different views: Harker believes that the Fed may cut interest rates later this year; Musalem thinks the probability of a continuous inflation outbreak due to the trade war is 50%; Bowman proposes to change the regulatory rating of large - scale banks and consider establishing an independent regulatory framework for community banks. In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year. The wholesale volume of passenger cars in May reached 2.31 million, a record high for the month, with a year - on - year increase of 12.8% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5% [3]