ccmn镍市分析：宏观面，本轮上涨主要由宏观、资金与基本面多重因素共同驱动：宏观层面，美联储 释放降息信号带动宽松预期升温，美国政府停摆结束缓解市场不确定性，叠加全球大宗商品普涨形成板 块共振，共同提振有色金属情绪；资金层面，美元指数走弱降低海外采购成本，美股科技股回调促使资 金流向大宗商品避险，为镍价注入流动性；基本面则受地缘局势扰动及主产国供应收紧预期支撑。在多 方因素协同推动下，市场看涨情绪集中释放，推动镍价强势突破。 本次镍价上涨的核心驱动在于基本面预期的同步转向。供应端，印尼计划收缩出口配额、加强监管并叠 加雨季影响，与菲律宾的季节性减产形成共振，共同推升了全球供应趋紧的预期。需求端虽呈现"弱现 实"，但节前不锈钢与动力电池的备货提供了刚需支撑，三元电池需求的结构性改善亦形成利好，加之 多家国际投行集体上调价格预期，为市场情绪提供了有力背书。整体来看，当前镍市处于 "供应预期收 紧、需求现实偏弱、库存高压但预期改善"的复杂格局中。随着春节临近，产业链呈现典型季节性特 征：上游矿山及中小冶炼企业活动放缓，下游备货进入尾声，贸易商心态分化，市场整体活跃度逐步下 降。 ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍上 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Indonesian government has significantly reduced its nickel ore production target for 2026 to approximately 250 million tons, down over one-third from the 379 million tons planned for 2025, aiming to stabilize nickel prices [1] - The Indonesian government is strengthening its maritime and mining regulatory oversight, with new regulations reducing the approval cycle for the RKAB policy from three years to one year, increasing market expectations for future tightness in ore supply [1] - Morgan Stanley's latest report predicts that nickel prices will rebound to $15,500 per ton by 2026, with supply and demand expected to grow simultaneously [2] Group 2 - Company, Liqian Resources, primarily operates in the nickel industry, covering the entire nickel supply chain, including upstream nickel resource integration, laterite nickel ore and nickel product trading, and the production of nickel compounds and nickel iron, with a wet nickel production capacity of 120,000 tons [2] - The optimistic long-term supply outlook for nickel is leading to a reassessment of the value of Liqian Resources as a core participant in the industry chain [2] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for the entire industrial metals sector, with the Federal Reserve recently announcing a 25 basis point rate cut and plans to purchase a large amount of short-term debt, which is expected to continue in the coming year, enhancing the attractiveness of commodities priced in USD [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel market's oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate and adjust, with attention paid to the range of 120,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Technically, with an increase in positions and a decline in prices, it will maintain range - bound operation. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or conduct range - bound operations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel is 120,560 yuan/ton, down 1,840 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts for Shanghai nickel is - 260 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,335 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 115,046 lots, up 6,057 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel is - 38,140 lots, down 4,457 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 251,238 tons, up 384 tons. The SHFE nickel inventory is 36,075 tons, up 1,656 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 6,408 tons, down 24 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 31,385 tons, up 1,605 tons [3]. b. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,150 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate from Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 122,250 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,590 yuan/ton, up 940 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 205.18 US dollars/ton, down 11.06 US dollars [3]. c. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, down 23.22 million tons; the average monthly import price of nickel ore is 56.72 US dollars/ton. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,497.91 million tons, down 30.93 million tons. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, down 300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, up 0.2112 million tons [3]. e. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, up 0.0248 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 0.5767 million tons, down 0.0069 million tons [3]. f. Industry News - Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, hoping that both sides would work towards each other to prepare for high - level Sino - US interactions. From January to September, the profits of above - scale equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.4% year - on - year, 6.2 percentage points higher than the average level of all above - scale industries, driving the profit growth of all above - scale industrial enterprises by 3.4 percentage points. The high - tech manufacturing industry played an obvious leading role, with the profits of above - scale high - tech manufacturing industry increasing by 8.7% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points faster than from January to August. According to IMF forecasts, by 2030, the ratio of the US government's total debt to GDP will soar by more than 20 percentage points from the current level to 143.4%, breaking the post - pandemic historical record [3].