五矿证券近日发布有色月跟踪：刚果金配额锁死全球钴原料供应，预计锐减至20万吨，结合回收的量预 计，2025年全球钴元素供应为20.6万吨，2026-2027年分别为21.4、21.6万吨；全球钴消费仍维持一定的 增速，根据历史增速测算，我们预计2026/2027年全球钴消费将达到22.1和23.1万吨，钴将面临刚性短 缺。 以下为研究报告摘要： 刚果金配额落地，年度出口量不足10万吨。刚果（金）于10月10日出台了新的配额管理制度以及配额方 案，以取代之前的钴出口禁令，2026/2027年各出口9.66万吨，其中8.7万吨为基础配额，9,600吨为 ARECOMS战略配额。洛阳钼业、嘉能可、欧亚资源等矿企获得主要配额，当地钴冶炼厂无直接配额。 供需刚性短缺，价格或再上新台阶。刚果金配额锁死全球钴原料供应，预计锐减至20万吨，结合回收的 量预计，2025年全球钴元素供应为20.6万吨，2026-2027年分别为21.4、21.6万吨；全球钴消费仍维持一 定的增速，根据历史增速测算，我们预计2026/2027年全球钴消费将达到22.1和23.1万吨，钴将面临刚性 短缺。 全产业链库存持续消耗，未来两年刚果金以外地 ...

智通财经APP获悉，五矿证券发布研报称，刚果（金）于10月10日出台新的配额管理制度，规定 2026/2027年钴出口量各为9.66万吨，主要配额分配给洛阳钼业（03993）、嘉能可（GLNCY.US）等矿 企，当地冶炼厂无直接配额。同时，全产业链库存持续消耗，当前钴产品价格出现倒挂，预计仍有补涨 空间。此外，美国国防部计划重启价值5亿美元的钴储备采购招标，预计2026年2月初授标，进一步凸显 钴的战略地位。 以氯化钴为例，我国库存天数从4月份的46天降至当前的39天。而下游冶炼厂中间品库存消耗量最大， 从5月份的4.5万吨降至当前1.7万吨，5个月去库量达到2.8万吨。合计来看，5个月内综合冶炼厂中间品 库存、电钴社会库存、硫酸钴库存，累计去库量达到3.2万吨，月均0.64万吨。 短期钴产品价格倒挂，钴价再上新台阶的trigger 钴产品价格倒挂，电钴具备经济性。2025年刚果金首次提出钴原料禁止出口以来，钴中间品CIF中国平 均价格从5.95美元/磅持续上涨至当前24.15美元/磅，涨幅达到306%。中国钴产品价格电钴现在报价40.2 万元/吨、硫酸钴折金属价43.2万元/吨、四钴折金属47.4万元/吨， ...

Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance showed a slight decline due to foreign exchange losses, aligning with expectations [1] - Q3 sales volume growth is robust, with a significant increase anticipated in Q4 due to seasonal demand [2] - The company is expected to turn around losses in iron phosphate and increase nickel self-supply, contributing to profit elasticity [3] - Capital expenditures are accelerating, with a downward revision in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1-3 of 2025, the company reported revenue of 33.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.11 billion, down 16% year-on-year [1] - Q3 revenue reached 11.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19% and a net profit of 380 million, reflecting a decrease of 17% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company experienced a foreign exchange loss of 130 million in Q3, which increased by nearly 80 million compared to Q2; excluding this impact, Q3 net profit grew by 7% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Sales Volume and Production - The company expects Q3 sales volume of ternary precursors and four-cobalt to reach 64,000 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22% [2] - The anticipated total sales volume for 2025 is approximately 250,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23% [2] - For 2026, the company forecasts a sales volume growth of around 15%, reaching 280,000 to 290,000 tons, with four-cobalt contributing 35,000 to 40,000 tons [2] Group 3: Product Segments - Q3 sales volume of iron phosphate is expected to be 43,000 tons, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%, and the company anticipates turning profitable in Q4 [3] - Nickel production in Q3 is projected at 40,000 tons, with an equity contribution of 24,000 tons, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company aims to achieve a self-supply of 30,000 tons of nickel metal in 2026, increasing the self-supply ratio to over 25% [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditures and Forecasts - Q3 operating expenses amounted to 940 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% [4] - Capital expenditures for Q1-3 of 2025 totaled 3.2 billion, down 17% year-on-year, with Q3 capital expenditures at 1.5 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2% [4] - The company revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 1.54 billion, 2 billion, and 2.61 billion respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 27x, 21x, and 16x [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q3 performance of the company met expectations, with a notable increase in the demand for ternary materials anticipated [1] - The company experienced a slight decline in Q3 net profit due to foreign exchange losses, but excluding this impact, net profit showed a 7% increase quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in Tesla's sales and accelerated electrification in Europe, leading to a significant increase in production capacity utilization for ternary materials [1] - The company is projected to achieve a total shipment volume of approximately 250,000 tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23% [1] - The company is expected to improve its profitability in Q4, with a forecasted turnaround in the iron phosphate segment [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 34,273 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.95% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 1,947 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.15% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 2.08 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.69 [1] - The company anticipates a net profit of 15.4 billion yuan for 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 27x [1] - The company’s capital expenditure for Q3 was 15 billion yuan, indicating a 2% increase quarter-on-quarter [1]

Summary of Conference Call on Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry is currently experiencing a high-level fluctuation, awaiting demand recovery and liquidity easing to trigger a main upward trend in prices [1][3][13] - The expectation of a soft landing for the US economy, along with the first interest rate cut, has stabilized overseas demand, but the main upward wave in non-ferrous metal prices has not yet started [1][3] Key Points and Arguments Market Outlook - The performance expectations for various non-ferrous sub-sectors in 2026 are generally optimistic, with an expected increase of approximately 20% or more [1][4] - The anticipated main upward wave is expected around the end of Q1 2026, driven by interest rate cuts, the end of the US balance sheet reduction, and overseas reconstruction demand [1][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing US-China geopolitical tensions have normalized, reducing their impact on market sentiment, but the supply-side constraints are stronger than demand influences [1][6] - It is expected that most metals will remain in a supply-demand imbalance in 2026, with supply constraints being more definitive [1][6] Specific Metal Insights - **Gold**: Short-term trading is overheated, with valuations stretched. A potential adjustment is expected after geopolitical events cool down, but long-term prospects remain positive due to economic recovery and inflation [1][7] - **Copper**: Short-term demand is suppressed by high prices, but mining and smelting companies may reduce production, leading to a supply-demand imbalance from Q4 2025 through 2026 [1][8][9] - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum sector is recommended as a top investment choice due to its strong dividend attributes and resilience in profits, with a significant upside potential if prices rise [1][10][11] Small Metals Perspective - **Cobalt**: Inventory is decreasing, indicating potential for price increases [2][12] - **Lithium**: Currently under pressure but nearing a bottom in supply-demand dynamics, strategic positioning is advised [2][12] - **Tungsten**: Long-term outlook is positive due to supply shortages and geopolitical factors [2][12] Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment for the non-ferrous metals industry remains optimistic, with recommendations to actively monitor and allocate resources to various metal sectors to capitalize on future growth opportunities [1][14] - The copper market is expected to see a price increase and earnings per share (EPS) growth, with mainstream companies' valuations returning to reasonable levels [1][9][14]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the lithium and cobalt sectors, with recent updates indicating a rebound in lithium carbonate prices due to optimistic market expectations for production resumption in September 2023. However, the transition from peak to off-peak season and the resumption of production may put pressure on prices. The current strong demand for energy storage is expected to keep lithium carbonate prices stable in the short term [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Lithium Market Dynamics**: - The anticipated resumption of a major lithium mine in Jiangxi is expected to positively influence market expectations, leading to a significant rebound in lithium carbonate prices to around 80,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton. However, as the market transitions to the off-peak season, prices may face downward pressure [3]. - The development of solid-state battery technology is highlighted, with estimates showing that 3GWh of solid-state batteries could require 2.5 to 3 times more lithium compared to traditional batteries. This could lead to a substantial increase in demand for lithium if solid-state technology is adopted more widely [3]. - **Cobalt Supply and Demand**: - China's cobalt raw material imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have seen a significant decline, with July imports down over 70% year-on-year. Domestic cobalt inventory is tight, estimated at 42,000 to 43,000 tons, while annual demand is around 50,000 tons, indicating a supply shortage [4]. - The upcoming expiration of the DRC's export ban is a point of concern. Even if exports are allowed, the market is expected to remain tight, with limited quota releases to ensure cobalt prices recover [4][5]. - **Future Cobalt Price Trends**: - The transportation and supply recovery timeline from the DRC to domestic production is approximately 3 to 4 months, meaning that any potential export resumption will have a limited immediate impact on domestic supply. Downstream replenishment is expected to continue until the end of the year or early next year [5]. - The demand for cobalt in sectors like consumer electronics and new energy vehicles is relatively price-insensitive, with current prices around 270,000 yuan per ton being acceptable. This suggests that there is significant upward price potential for cobalt [5]. Additional Important Insights - Companies to watch include those with nickel-cobalt production capacity in Indonesia, such as Huayou Cobalt, Liqin Resources, and Greeenmei, as well as those with resources and production capacity in the DRC, like Luoyang Molybdenum, Pengyuan Cobalt, and Hanrui Cobalt, which are expected to benefit from high quotas and prices [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - Dongwei Securities report indicates that Zhongwei Co., Ltd. experienced a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders in H1 2025, amounting to 730 million yuan, a decrease of 15.2% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 430 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 12% and a year-on-year decline of 38% [1] - The company's output of nickel, cobalt, phosphorus, and sodium products reached 188,000 tons in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34% [1] - The expected output for ternary precursors and four-cobalt products for the full year is around 230,000 tons, indicating a year-on-year growth of 15% [1] Group 2: Profitability and Market Position - The company is projected to achieve a profit contribution of 1.3 to 1.4 billion yuan from a single-ton profit of 6,000 yuan per ton [1] - In Q2, nickel prices further declined, while the cost of fire-smelting ore increased, leading to a forecast of marginal profits from metal nickel, with an expected contribution of 200 to 300 million yuan for the year [1] - As the largest precursor manufacturer in China, the company is expected to maintain a rising self-supply rate of nickel, with a target price of 46 yuan based on a 25x PE ratio for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Highlights - Company reported a 38% quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2, aligning with expectations [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 21.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with a net profit of 730 million yuan, down 15.2% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 12.1%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] Product Performance - The company benefited from rising cobalt prices, with significant profit contributions from its four-cobalt products [2] - In the first half of 2025, the company shipped 188,000 tons of nickel, cobalt, phosphorus, and sodium products, a year-on-year increase of 34% [2] - The expected total shipment for Q2 of ternary precursors and four-cobalt products is 60,000 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30% [2] Financial Metrics - The company’s cash flow showed strong performance, with operating cash flow of 1.48 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 13.1% year-on-year [3] - Capital expenditures decreased by 28% in the first half of 2025, with Q2 capital expenditures down 55% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company ended the first half of 2025 with inventory valued at 10.23 billion yuan, an increase of 4.1% from the beginning of the year [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company revised its profit forecast for 2025-2027, now expecting net profits of 1.72 billion yuan, 2.02 billion yuan, and 2.7 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 18%, and 33% [4] - The target price for the stock has been raised to 46 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating based on a 25x PE for 2025 [4] - The company is recognized as the largest precursor manufacturer in China, with an increasing self-supply rate of nickel [4] Analyst Ratings - In the last 90 days, four institutions have issued ratings for the stock, all recommending a "buy" [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 net profit increased by 38% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with expectations. For the first half of 2025, revenue reached 21.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, while net profit was 730 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2% [7] - The company benefited from rising cobalt prices, with four-cobalt contributing to profit elasticity. The total shipment volume of nickel, cobalt, phosphorus, and sodium products in the first half of 2025 was 188,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 34% [7] - The company is expected to maintain stable profitability in the three-element precursor segment, with a projected total shipment volume of around 230,000 tons for the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 15% [7] - The company has shown strong cash flow, with operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 reaching 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 1.72 billion, 2.02 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17%, 18%, and 33% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 34.273 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.95%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 68.083 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.89% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 1.947 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.15%. By 2027, this is expected to rise to 2.696 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 33.15% [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 2.08 yuan per share, with an expected increase to 2.87 yuan per share by 2027 [1][8] - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to be 19x in 2025, decreasing to 12.16x by 2027 [1][8]