| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-09-29 。需求端，不锈钢厂利润改善，钢厂进行提产；新能源汽车产销继续爬升，但三元电池需求有限。近期下 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 游逢低采购为主，现货升水小幅上涨，国内库存出现下降；海外LME库存累增。技术面，持仓减量价格震 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 荡，多空交投分歧，维持区间震荡。操作上，建议暂时观望。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the nickel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. Technically, there is a rebound with reduced volume and positions, testing the MA10 resistance upwards, and it is expected to be in a volatile adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel was 121,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,020 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread was -210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [2]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15,330 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 145 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was 85,713 lots, an increase of 2,167 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel was -2,491 lots, a decrease of 3,037 lots; LME nickel inventory was 200,724 tons, a decrease of 900 tons [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 27,075 tons, an increase of 120 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel totaled 29,046 tons, an increase of 684 tons [2]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai Nickel was 22,251 tons, a decrease of 48 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 123,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 325 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous was 123,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price was 100 US dollars/ton [2]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 1,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 695 yuan [2]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was -188.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.05 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 291.41 million tons, an increase of 137.89 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 725.88 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons [2]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore was 78.86 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32.99 US dollars; the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron was 2.17 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.11 million metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 18,746.54 tons, an increase of 10,187.11 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron was 81.69 million tons, a decrease of 19.64 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was -7.75 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 182.43 million tons, a decrease of 2.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates. The US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000 people, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. The recruitment speed in May reached the lowest level since March 2023 [2]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed that the US economic activity declined slightly, with enterprises and consumers facing increased policy uncertainty and rising price pressure, and the overall economic outlook was pessimistic [2]. - The China Passenger Car Association reported that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The cumulative wholesale from January to May was estimated to be 5.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 41% [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Concern Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, and the actual progress should be monitored [2].