Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply. The growth of nickel - iron production in Indonesia has slowed, and domestic production is gradually declining. Recently, the price of nickel - iron has rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs. On the supply side, although the production profit of steel mills has shrunk, with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, infrastructure and real - estate demand are gradually increasing, and the production schedule of stainless - steel mills is still increasing. On the demand side, infrastructure construction in October is expected to speed up, combined with favorable domestic fiscal investment policies. Anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, market procurement demand is resilient, and domestic inventories continue to decline. Technically, with a decrease in positions and a price increase, the short - selling sentiment has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see or hold previous long positions [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,815 yuan/ton, with a change of 5. The 11 - 12 - month contract spread is - 15 yuan/ton, a change of - 29,055. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 6,452 lots, an increase of 1,130. The position volume of the main contract is 115,124 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 73,896 tons, a decrease of 299 [2] 2. Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120. The total monthly output of nickel - iron is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 211,200. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 123,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 150. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 5. The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 [2] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 24,800. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 576,700 tons, a decrease of 6,900. The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 45.399 million square meters, an increase of 5.59799 million. The monthly output of excavators is 27,600, an increase of 2,900. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,700, an increase of 6,900. The monthly output of small tractors is 9,000, a decrease of 1,000 [2] 6. Industry News - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, reaching a basic consensus on important economic and trade issues. The US September CPI data was released, and the market has fully digested the expectation of two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed in the remaining time of the year [2] 7. Key Points of Concern - There is no news today [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The future focus of monetary policy is to implement the introduced policies. The PNBP policy of the Indonesian government restricts the supply and increases the cost of nickel resources. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is recovering, and the domestic nickel ore port inventory is increasing rapidly. The new electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly, and some smelters are reducing production due to low nickel prices, so the refined nickel production is expected to remain stable at a high level. On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and they are increasing production. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, downstream buyers purchase on dips, the domestic inventory has decreased, while the overseas LME inventory has increased. Technically, the position is decreasing, the price is oscillating, and there are differences in long - short trading, maintaining a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the 10 - 11 - month contract spread is - 280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,155 dollars/ton, down 85 dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 83,149 hands, down 735 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 28,940 hands, up 470 hands; the LME nickel inventory is 231,312 tons, up 1,188 tons; the上期所 nickel inventory is 29,008 tons, down 826 tons; the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt quantity is 25,057 tons, down 96 tons [3] 现货 Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,000 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,900 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan; the CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the basis of the NI main contract is 900 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the LME nickel (spot/three - month) spread is - 178.77 dollars/ton, down 4.42 dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 634.67 million tons, up 134.09 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1409.37 million tons, up 9.26 million tons; the average monthly import price of nickel ore is 61.33 dollars/ton, down 2.43 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 24,426.84 tons, down 13,807.17 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 87.41 million tons, up 3.82 million tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 173.79 million tons, up 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 56.23 million tons, up 0.35 million tons [3] Industry News - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and focus on implementing the introduced policies. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council called on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition. In August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 20.4% year - on - year, reversing the 1.5% decline in July. Trump's new chip policy requires a 1:1 ratio of domestic production to imports for producers, and tariffs will be imposed if the standard is not met. In August, the core PCE price index in the US increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the nickel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. Technically, there is a rebound with reduced volume and positions, testing the MA10 resistance upwards, and it is expected to be in a volatile adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel was 121,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,020 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread was -210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [2]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15,330 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 145 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was 85,713 lots, an increase of 2,167 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel was -2,491 lots, a decrease of 3,037 lots; LME nickel inventory was 200,724 tons, a decrease of 900 tons [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 27,075 tons, an increase of 120 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel totaled 29,046 tons, an increase of 684 tons [2]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai Nickel was 22,251 tons, a decrease of 48 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 123,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 325 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous was 123,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price was 100 US dollars/ton [2]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 1,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 695 yuan [2]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was -188.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.05 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 291.41 million tons, an increase of 137.89 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 725.88 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons [2]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore was 78.86 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32.99 US dollars; the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron was 2.17 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.11 million metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 18,746.54 tons, an increase of 10,187.11 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron was 81.69 million tons, a decrease of 19.64 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was -7.75 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 182.43 million tons, a decrease of 2.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates. The US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000 people, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. The recruitment speed in May reached the lowest level since March 2023 [2]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed that the US economic activity declined slightly, with enterprises and consumers facing increased policy uncertainty and rising price pressure, and the overall economic outlook was pessimistic [2]. - The China Passenger Car Association reported that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The cumulative wholesale from January to May was estimated to be 5.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 41% [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Concern Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, and the actual progress should be monitored [2].