Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern. The marginal improvement on the supply side and the insufficient realization of the peak - season demand on the demand side exert downward pressure, but the support comes from the resilience of new energy vehicle demand and inventory reduction. The resumption progress of Jiangxi mines and the change in downstream restocking rhythm should be closely monitored, and the new energy vehicle sales data in September may be the key variable to break the current balance [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes - On August 27, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 78,860 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.2% from the previous trading day, with short - term directional divergence. The basis was 2,640 yuan/ton, a slight weakening of 40 yuan compared to the previous day, and the basis center in the past week showed a downward trend, indicating that the downward pressure on the spot price was transmitted to the futures market [1]. - The main contract's open interest increased slightly by 0.52% to 351,000 lots, while the trading volume significantly rebounded by 30.4% to 729,000 lots, indicating intensified short - term capital games and fierce competition between long and short sides around key price levels [1] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, reaching 66.41% in the week of August 22. The accelerated release of lithium production from salt lakes partially offset the impact of the suspension of lithium mica mines in Yichun, Jiangxi. However, potential supply disruptions due to the re - application for mining licenses by Jiangxi mines before the end of September should be noted [2]. - Demand side: Downstream demand was divided. According to the Passenger Car Association, the year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicle retail and wholesale in August were 9% and 18% respectively, indicating demand resilience. However, the cathode material market was weak, with the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate dropping for four consecutive weeks to 35,590 yuan/ton, the price of ternary materials remaining stable, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remaining flat for three consecutive weeks. Mid - stream procurement became more cautious, and the stocking demand weakened [2]. - Inventory and warrants: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly by 713 tons to 141,500 tons, but it remained at a relatively high level in the past five weeks [2] c. Market Summary - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern. The marginal improvement on the supply side and the insufficient realization of the peak - season demand on the demand side exert downward pressure, but the support comes from the resilience of new energy vehicle demand and inventory reduction. The resumption progress of Jiangxi mines and the change in downstream restocking rhythm should be closely monitored, and the new energy vehicle sales data in September may be the key variable to break the current balance [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased from 79,020 yuan/ton to 78,860 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.2%. The basis decreased from 2,680 yuan/ton to 2,640 yuan/ton, a weakening of 1.49%. The open interest of the main contract increased by 0.52% to 351,322 lots, and the trading volume increased significantly by 30.39% to 729,645 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.24% to 81,500 yuan/ton. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.08% to 35,590 yuan/ton, while the prices of ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [5] - The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 63.92% to 66.41%, an increase of 3.9%. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.5% to 141,543 tons. The prices of some battery cells showed small fluctuations, with the cobalt - acid lithium cell price increasing by 3.6% [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Spot Market Quotes - On August 27, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 81,671 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,300 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to pre - stocking by some downstream material factories, the procurement scale this week was smaller than last week. The current downstream procurement attitude is cautious, and they are waiting for further price drops. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the downstream demand has certain rigid support, and the short - term spot price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain relatively high and continue to fluctuate within a range [6] b. Downstream Consumption Situation - From August 1 - 17, the retail volume of the national new energy passenger vehicle market was 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 12%. The retail penetration rate was 58.0%, and the cumulative retail volume this year was 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%. The wholesale volume of the national new energy passenger vehicle market was 474,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 18% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. The wholesale penetration rate was 56.4%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 8.108 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34% [7] c. Industry News - Since the official suspension of the Ningde Times' Jiangxi Yichun Jianxiawo mining area on August 10, the "butterfly effect" has spread throughout the industry chain [8]. - On August 18, Lanxiao Technology won the bid for the adsorption system of the expansion and transformation project of the comprehensive utilization of old brine lithium extraction from the Lop Nur Salt Lake of Xinjiang Guotou Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., with a bid amount of 35.7712 million yuan. This project will help the company improve its market share and technical control ability in the salt lake lithium extraction industry [9]. - On August 15, the Jianxiawo mining area of Ningde Times stopped production due to the expiration of the mining license. Eight local mines in Yichun need to re - apply for mining licenses before September 30 this year [9] 4. Appendix: Large - Model Inference Process - Market data analysis: The main contract price decreased slightly, the basis weakened, the open interest increased slightly, and the trading volume increased significantly, indicating intensified market competition between long and short sides [30]. - Industry chain analysis: On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate increased, but the suspension of the Yichun mining area may cause supply shortages, which may be partially offset by new salt lake lithium extraction projects. On the demand side, new energy vehicle sales increased, but the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, indicating more cautious downstream procurement. The inventory decreased slightly, which may support the price [30][31][32]. - Price trend judgment: In the next one to two weeks, the market may maintain a low - level volatile pattern. The pressure comes from increased supply and demand hesitation, but the inventory decline may limit the decline [32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the nickel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. Technically, there is a rebound with reduced volume and positions, testing the MA10 resistance upwards, and it is expected to be in a volatile adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel was 121,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,020 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread was -210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [2]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15,330 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 145 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was 85,713 lots, an increase of 2,167 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel was -2,491 lots, a decrease of 3,037 lots; LME nickel inventory was 200,724 tons, a decrease of 900 tons [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 27,075 tons, an increase of 120 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel totaled 29,046 tons, an increase of 684 tons [2]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai Nickel was 22,251 tons, a decrease of 48 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 123,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 325 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous was 123,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price was 100 US dollars/ton [2]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 1,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 695 yuan [2]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was -188.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.05 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 291.41 million tons, an increase of 137.89 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 725.88 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons [2]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore was 78.86 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32.99 US dollars; the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron was 2.17 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.11 million metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 18,746.54 tons, an increase of 10,187.11 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron was 81.69 million tons, a decrease of 19.64 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was -7.75 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 182.43 million tons, a decrease of 2.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates. The US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000 people, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. The recruitment speed in May reached the lowest level since March 2023 [2]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed that the US economic activity declined slightly, with enterprises and consumers facing increased policy uncertainty and rising price pressure, and the overall economic outlook was pessimistic [2]. - The China Passenger Car Association reported that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The cumulative wholesale from January to May was estimated to be 5.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 41% [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Concern Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, and the actual progress should be monitored [2].