专家会：碳酸锂行业展望 20251120 摘要 碳酸锂需求增速显著，但前期供应过剩导致库存积压。2024 年 10 月至 11 月电池厂排产激增，加速去库存，推动价格上涨。当前全行业库存约 12 万吨，较上半年明显下降，但下游高增长使得实际降幅更为显著，市 场对缺货担忧加剧。 宜春地区采矿证到期企业停产，未到期企业部分生产，复产评估周期长， 短期内大规模复产可能性低，加剧市场对供应的谨慎态度。中国盐湖资 源开发受生态保护限制，难以大幅增加产量，非洲或成新的增量来源， 但储量占比有限。 非洲矿产开发进度较快，部分新项目将在 1-2 年内投产。澳大利亚矿产 供应随价格波动，若 2026 年价格低于 8 万人民币，增量有限；若保持 在 1,200 美元左右，则大部分矿可生产，但矿区品位下降导致成本上升， 限制产出。 第三世界国家倾向于用资源换技术，限制锂矿出口，要求本地生产高附 加值产品，导致落地周期变长，实际产出速度变慢。津巴布韦计划自 2027 年起禁止锂矿出口，智利也强调生态和可持续发展。 Q&A 今年以来碳酸锂市场的行情如何？价格走势和供需情况有何变化？ 2025 年上半年，碳酸锂市场处于供过于求的状态。年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to multiple factors, including market sentiment, policy adjustments, and demand expectations for the electric vehicle sector [6][7][10]. Market Overview - On November 21, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the limit down, with a drop of 9%, closing at 91,020 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot prices also fell significantly, with battery-grade lithium carbonate at 92,900 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Trading Volume and Positioning - Trading volume for the main lithium carbonate futures contract decreased to 1,595,600 lots, while open interest fell by 23,500 lots to 479,600 lots, indicating a strong willingness among investors to liquidate positions at high levels [4]. Policy Adjustments - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced adjustments to trading fees and limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts, effective November 24, 2025, which may have contributed to the cooling market sentiment [5][7]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply of lithium remains tight, with processing fees for lithium salts at low levels (18,000-19,000 yuan/ton) due to fierce competition among producers [8]. - Current production rates are not expected to increase significantly, as lithium salt plants are operating at nearly full capacity [8]. Demand Side Analysis - Demand for lithium carbonate has been strong, particularly in the energy storage sector, with expectations for global energy storage shipments to reach 560 GWh this year and 780 GWh next year, reflecting a 40% year-on-year growth [9]. - However, concerns about potential demand weakness in the first quarter of next year due to earlier demand pull-forward have emerged [10]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of a potential decline in demand for electric vehicles due to subsidy reductions in China [10]. - Analysts suggest that while the current supply-demand balance is tight, any recovery in production from key lithium mines could lead to a more relaxed supply situation in December [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, market information was noisy, and the resumption expectation of Zhenxiawo Mine was volatile, leading to a wide - range fluctuation of lithium prices. On October 31, rumors of the mine's quick resumption made long - position holders nervous, causing lithium prices to decline with reduced positions. As CATL didn't release a resumption plan, the rumor was unconfirmed, and prices rose again with increased positions at the end of the week. Fundamentally, high - frequency supply reached a new high, but there were bottlenecks in supply growth, inventory continued to decline, and downstream demand for active stockpiling was weak, with only rigid - demand purchases [4]. - In the later stage, the expectation of fundamental improvement continues, and lithium prices will fluctuate widely driven by the resumption expectation of mines. Although there are bottlenecks in supply growth, upstream production enthusiasm is high at current prices. Some capacities are resuming production due to new mining permits, so the total supply will remain at a high level. Material factories' production in November is expected to increase month - on - month, but downstream lithium salt purchasing is cautious, indicating limited market expectations for future lithium price increases. The power terminal will remain strong driven by the policy window, but there is a risk of demand slump at the end of the month when the policy window closes. The fundamental situation will remain warm in the short term. The resumption expectation of CATL's Zhenxiawo Mine may greatly affect market sentiment, leading to wide - range fluctuations in lithium prices [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Indicator | 2025/11/7 | 2025/10/31 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%) | 147 | 150 | - 2.50 | - 1.67% | USD/ton | | Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 904 | 918 | - 14.00 | - 1.53% | USD/ton | | Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 904 | 918 | - 14 | - 1.53% | CNY/ton | | Spot exchange rate: USD to CNY | 7.122 | 7.114 | 0.01 | 0.12% | / | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 8.05 | 8.08 | - 0.03 | - 0.35% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Lithium carbonate main contract price | 7.79 | 7.93 | - 0.14 | - 1.79% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Total lithium carbonate inventory | 121140 | 123777 | - 2637 | - 2.13% | ton | | Lithium iron phosphate price | 3.63 | 3.37 | 0.26 | 7.72% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Lithium cobalt oxide price | 36.20 | 36.20 | 0.00 | 0.00% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Ternary material price (811) | 16.45 | 16.45 | 0.00 | 0.00% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Ternary material price (622) | 14.95 | 14.95 | 0.00 | 0.00% | CNY 10,000/ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulation and Delivery**: As of November 7, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of GZFE was 27332 lots, and the latest matching transaction price was 77,920 CNY/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2601 was 490,900 lots [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of November 7, the weekly lithium carbonate production was 23,465 tons, an increase of 145 tons from the previous period. Although supply growth in Sichuan and Jiangxi was restricted, northern salt - lake capacities resumed production due to new mining permits, and Hunan showed signs of increased production. With more new mining permits approved, supply will remain at a high level. In September, the lithium carbonate import volume was 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The import volume from Chile was about 10,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%, accounting for about 55.2%. The import volume from Argentina was 6948 tons, a year - on - year increase of 242.9%, accounting for about 35.5%. The average import price from Chile was about 62,400 CNY/ton, and from Argentina was about 59,100 CNY/ton. In September, the total lithium ore import was about 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8%. The import from Australia was 347,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.1%; from Zimbabwe was about 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8%; from Nigeria was about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.4%. The import from South Africa increased significantly, reaching about 108,700 tons [7]. - **Demand Side**: - **Downstream Cathode Materials**: As of November 7, the total lithium iron phosphate production was about 96,856 tons, with an operating rate of 85.24%, an increase of 7.41 percentage points from the previous period, and inventory of 40,132 tons, a decrease of 541 tons. The total ternary material production was about 19,684 tons, with an operating rate of 51.51%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points from the previous period, and inventory of 12,190 tons, a decrease of 250 tons. In terms of prices, the ternary material price was relatively stable. The price of 5 - series ternary materials increased from 138,900 CNY/ton to 139,100 CNY/ton; the 8 - series price remained stable at 158,100 CNY/ton. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased from 37,200 CNY/ton to 37,150 CNY/ton, and the energy - storage type decreased from 35,500 CNY/ton to 35,350 CNY/ton [8]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From October 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. High - frequency data showed that new - energy vehicle sales rebounded significantly at the end of October due to the policy - driven increase in orders and concentrated deliveries. However, there is a risk of demand slump in December when the policy window closes. Most new - force car companies have announced purchase - tax subsidy policies, but only a few traditional car companies have done so, so demand resilience is at risk [9]. - **Inventory**: As of November 7, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 121,140 tons, a decrease of about 2637 tons from the previous period. Factory inventory was 22,300 tons, a decrease of about 1075 tons; market inventory was 71,508 tons, a decrease of about 1273 tons; and exchange inventory was 27332 lots, a decrease of 289 lots from the previous week [10]. This Week's Outlook The expectation of fundamental improvement continues, and lithium prices will fluctuate widely driven by the resumption expectation of mines. Although there are bottlenecks in supply growth, upstream production enthusiasm is high at current prices. Some capacities are resuming production due to new mining permits, so the total supply will remain at a high level. Material factories' production in November is expected to increase month - on - month, but downstream lithium salt purchasing is cautious, indicating limited market expectations for future lithium price increases. The power terminal will remain strong driven by the policy window, but there is a risk of demand slump at the end of the month when the policy window closes. The fundamental situation will remain warm in the short term. The resumption expectation of CATL's Zhenxiawo Mine may greatly affect market sentiment, leading to wide - range fluctuations in lithium prices [11]. Industry News - A battery - grade lithium carbonate project with an annual output of 80,000 tons in Hunan officially started on October 29. It is an upgrade of the original 40,000 - ton/year plan, and the first - phase 20,000 - ton/year project is expected to be put into production in 2026 [12]. - Haimuxing has successfully completed the full - line process for mass - producing lithium - metal solid - state batteries and has received a 400 - million - CNY equipment order for 2GWh solid - state batteries [12]. - Chuanfa Longmang and Fuling Jinguang will jointly invest in a 175,000 - ton/year high - density lithium iron phosphate project [12]. - Kodal Minerals' Bougouni lithium mine in Mali is operating normally despite the security tensions in the capital [12]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the prices, production, and import volumes of lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related products from 2022 - 2025 [14][16][18][21][23][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern. The marginal improvement on the supply side and the insufficient realization of the peak - season demand on the demand side exert downward pressure, but the support comes from the resilience of new energy vehicle demand and inventory reduction. The resumption progress of Jiangxi mines and the change in downstream restocking rhythm should be closely monitored, and the new energy vehicle sales data in September may be the key variable to break the current balance [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes - On August 27, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 78,860 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.2% from the previous trading day, with short - term directional divergence. The basis was 2,640 yuan/ton, a slight weakening of 40 yuan compared to the previous day, and the basis center in the past week showed a downward trend, indicating that the downward pressure on the spot price was transmitted to the futures market [1]. - The main contract's open interest increased slightly by 0.52% to 351,000 lots, while the trading volume significantly rebounded by 30.4% to 729,000 lots, indicating intensified short - term capital games and fierce competition between long and short sides around key price levels [1] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, reaching 66.41% in the week of August 22. The accelerated release of lithium production from salt lakes partially offset the impact of the suspension of lithium mica mines in Yichun, Jiangxi. However, potential supply disruptions due to the re - application for mining licenses by Jiangxi mines before the end of September should be noted [2]. - Demand side: Downstream demand was divided. According to the Passenger Car Association, the year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicle retail and wholesale in August were 9% and 18% respectively, indicating demand resilience. However, the cathode material market was weak, with the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate dropping for four consecutive weeks to 35,590 yuan/ton, the price of ternary materials remaining stable, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remaining flat for three consecutive weeks. Mid - stream procurement became more cautious, and the stocking demand weakened [2]. - Inventory and warrants: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly by 713 tons to 141,500 tons, but it remained at a relatively high level in the past five weeks [2] c. Market Summary - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern. The marginal improvement on the supply side and the insufficient realization of the peak - season demand on the demand side exert downward pressure, but the support comes from the resilience of new energy vehicle demand and inventory reduction. The resumption progress of Jiangxi mines and the change in downstream restocking rhythm should be closely monitored, and the new energy vehicle sales data in September may be the key variable to break the current balance [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased from 79,020 yuan/ton to 78,860 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.2%. The basis decreased from 2,680 yuan/ton to 2,640 yuan/ton, a weakening of 1.49%. The open interest of the main contract increased by 0.52% to 351,322 lots, and the trading volume increased significantly by 30.39% to 729,645 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.24% to 81,500 yuan/ton. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.08% to 35,590 yuan/ton, while the prices of ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [5] - The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 63.92% to 66.41%, an increase of 3.9%. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.5% to 141,543 tons. The prices of some battery cells showed small fluctuations, with the cobalt - acid lithium cell price increasing by 3.6% [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Spot Market Quotes - On August 27, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 81,671 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,300 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to pre - stocking by some downstream material factories, the procurement scale this week was smaller than last week. The current downstream procurement attitude is cautious, and they are waiting for further price drops. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the downstream demand has certain rigid support, and the short - term spot price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain relatively high and continue to fluctuate within a range [6] b. Downstream Consumption Situation - From August 1 - 17, the retail volume of the national new energy passenger vehicle market was 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 12%. The retail penetration rate was 58.0%, and the cumulative retail volume this year was 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%. The wholesale volume of the national new energy passenger vehicle market was 474,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 18% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. The wholesale penetration rate was 56.4%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 8.108 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34% [7] c. Industry News - Since the official suspension of the Ningde Times' Jiangxi Yichun Jianxiawo mining area on August 10, the "butterfly effect" has spread throughout the industry chain [8]. - On August 18, Lanxiao Technology won the bid for the adsorption system of the expansion and transformation project of the comprehensive utilization of old brine lithium extraction from the Lop Nur Salt Lake of Xinjiang Guotou Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., with a bid amount of 35.7712 million yuan. This project will help the company improve its market share and technical control ability in the salt lake lithium extraction industry [9]. - On August 15, the Jianxiawo mining area of Ningde Times stopped production due to the expiration of the mining license. Eight local mines in Yichun need to re - apply for mining licenses before September 30 this year [9] 4. Appendix: Large - Model Inference Process - Market data analysis: The main contract price decreased slightly, the basis weakened, the open interest increased slightly, and the trading volume increased significantly, indicating intensified market competition between long and short sides [30]. - Industry chain analysis: On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate increased, but the suspension of the Yichun mining area may cause supply shortages, which may be partially offset by new salt lake lithium extraction projects. On the demand side, new energy vehicle sales increased, but the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, indicating more cautious downstream procurement. The inventory decreased slightly, which may support the price [30][31][32]. - Price trend judgment: In the next one to two weeks, the market may maintain a low - level volatile pattern. The pressure comes from increased supply and demand hesitation, but the inventory decline may limit the decline [32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the nickel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. Technically, there is a rebound with reduced volume and positions, testing the MA10 resistance upwards, and it is expected to be in a volatile adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel was 121,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,020 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread was -210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [2]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15,330 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 145 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was 85,713 lots, an increase of 2,167 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel was -2,491 lots, a decrease of 3,037 lots; LME nickel inventory was 200,724 tons, a decrease of 900 tons [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 27,075 tons, an increase of 120 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel totaled 29,046 tons, an increase of 684 tons [2]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai Nickel was 22,251 tons, a decrease of 48 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 123,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 325 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous was 123,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price was 100 US dollars/ton [2]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 1,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 695 yuan [2]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was -188.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.05 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 291.41 million tons, an increase of 137.89 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 725.88 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons [2]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore was 78.86 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32.99 US dollars; the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron was 2.17 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.11 million metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 18,746.54 tons, an increase of 10,187.11 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron was 81.69 million tons, a decrease of 19.64 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was -7.75 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 182.43 million tons, a decrease of 2.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates. The US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000 people, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. The recruitment speed in May reached the lowest level since March 2023 [2]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed that the US economic activity declined slightly, with enterprises and consumers facing increased policy uncertainty and rising price pressure, and the overall economic outlook was pessimistic [2]. - The China Passenger Car Association reported that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The cumulative wholesale from January to May was estimated to be 5.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 41% [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Concern Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, and the actual progress should be monitored [2].