gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月16日 氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位,供应过剩格局难改,行业库存和交易所仓单持续上升,未来二个月 仓单过期流出压力丈。山西河南平均完全成本2850-2900元，现金成本核算仍有利润，形成规模减 产前盘面反弹空间有限,现货下跌确定性更强。 (原油) 欧盟理事会15日发布两份公告，宣布对俄罗斯采取新一轮制裁措施。自上周美国扣押一艘沟轮并对 与委内瑞拉有业务往来的航运公司和船只实施制裁以来，委内瑞拉的石油出口量急剧下降。然全球 原油供需愈发宽松背景下,美国主导的和谈取得进展导致市场担忧达成协议后俄油供应释放进一步 增大供应压力,油价承压降至年内低点。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属延续偏强运行。美联储会议后宽松交易延续,黄金逼近历史高点位置,如果实现突破则 贵金属强势表现有望延续。铂肥创上市以来新高，外盘强势突破前高压力位加速上涨。金银强势背 景下,相对低估值钩把受多头资金青睐,商业航天发展如火如荼,氢能板块用铂把存想象空间,供 应端的强刚性约束下，铂肥中长线多配节奏明确。今晚重点关注美国11月非农数据发布。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜冲高收回部分涨幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance for 2024, with revenue and net profit significantly increasing year-on-year, indicating robust operational growth despite potential industry challenges [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 233.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 49.1 billion yuan, up 105.78% year-on-year, resulting in earnings per share of 3.08 yuan [1] - For Q4 2024, the company recorded revenue of 59.122 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.6%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 19.6%. The net profit for Q4 was 10.976 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 513.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 48.4% [1] Operational Metrics - The company’s container freight volume improved year-on-year, reaching 25.94 million TEUs, an increase of 10.12%. The trans-Pacific route benefited from a 13% increase in cargo volume due to rising U.S. import demand, while the Asia-Europe route saw a 13.3% decrease in cargo volume due to reduced effective capacity from the Red Sea detour [1] - The average SCFI composite index for container shipping rates in 2024 was 2506 points, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 149.2% [1] Industry Trends - The container shipping industry is expected to face supply pressures, with spot rates potentially continuing to decline. The SCFI rates for European and U.S. West Coast routes have decreased by 54.2% and 41.4% respectively since the beginning of the year [2] - Supply growth is projected at 6.2% for 2025 and 3.3% for 2026, while demand growth is forecasted at 0.0% for 2025 and -4.7% for 2026, indicating ongoing supply-demand pressures [2] - The recovery of the Red Sea route and U.S. tariff policies are critical variables affecting industry supply and spot rates. The current low number of vessels transiting the Red Sea suggests a challenging recovery ahead [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to better-than-expected long-term contract signing prices, the company has raised its 2025 net profit forecast by 13.7% to 27.1 billion yuan and introduced a net profit estimate of 20.5 billion yuan for 2026 [3] - The current A-share price corresponds to 8.5 times and 11.3 times the 2025 and 2026 price-to-earnings ratios, while the H-share price corresponds to 6.8 times and 8.8 times for the same periods [3] - The target prices for A-shares and H-shares remain unchanged at 16.30 yuan and 14.50 HKD respectively, indicating potential upside of 12.5% and 18.9% from current prices [3]