gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月16日 氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位,供应过剩格局难改,行业库存和交易所仓单持续上升,未来二个月 仓单过期流出压力丈。山西河南平均完全成本2850-2900元，现金成本核算仍有利润，形成规模减 产前盘面反弹空间有限,现货下跌确定性更强。 (原油) 欧盟理事会15日发布两份公告，宣布对俄罗斯采取新一轮制裁措施。自上周美国扣押一艘沟轮并对 与委内瑞拉有业务往来的航运公司和船只实施制裁以来，委内瑞拉的石油出口量急剧下降。然全球 原油供需愈发宽松背景下,美国主导的和谈取得进展导致市场担忧达成协议后俄油供应释放进一步 增大供应压力,油价承压降至年内低点。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属延续偏强运行。美联储会议后宽松交易延续,黄金逼近历史高点位置,如果实现突破则 贵金属强势表现有望延续。铂肥创上市以来新高，外盘强势突破前高压力位加速上涨。金银强势背 景下,相对低估值钩把受多头资金青睐,商业航天发展如火如荼,氢能板块用铂把存想象空间,供 应端的强刚性约束下，铂肥中长线多配节奏明确。今晚重点关注美国11月非农数据发布。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜冲高收回部分涨幅 ...

记者从深圳市房地产中介协会获悉，今年第49周（12月1日-7日）全市新房（预售+现售）成交807套， 环比增长4.8%，其中住宅类别成交608套，环比增长7.4%；全市二手房（含自助）录得1,419套，环比增 长6.2%。12月首周，深圳楼市迎来"开门红"。 （作者：深圳特区报&读特记者 窦延文） 具体来看，龙岗区以25.4%的意向占比和348万元的意向套均总价，成为性价比最受认可的区域。福 田、南山等中心城区因总价较高，占比较少；坪山、盐田等远郊区域虽总价更低，但受配套等因素制 约，吸引力有限。整体来看，性价比是当前深圳普通购房者的核心决策因素，而龙岗正是这一趋势的集 中体现。 在本周二手住宅交易中，"刚需、刚改"需求较为活跃的片区分布在龙岗、罗湖、龙华、坪山、宝安五个 行政区，区域分布相对分散。其中，龙岗中心城片区的成交表现最为突出，其均价在五区中处于中等水 平，罗湖布心片区均价最高，坪山片区则为均价最低的区域。 （图片深圳市房地产中介协会提供） 从需求端（委买合同）看，本周市场新增需求量有所增加，环比增长4.8%，其中83.7%的客户选1000万 以下住宅，16.3%的客户瞄准1000万以上住宅，这表明 ...

Core Insights - The newly supplied land in the Dongxiaokou area of Changping marks the first addition in five years, indicating a shift in the local real estate landscape [1][3] - The successful land auction reflects a broader trend of increasing new housing supply in the Changping district, which is expected to enhance the overall living quality in the area [1][4] Land Supply and Market Dynamics - The Dongxiaokou Zhen He Village plot is strategically located between the Fifth and Sixth Ring Roads, near the intersection of Haidian, Chaoyang, and Changping districts, and close to the under-construction subway line 13B [3] - The last land supply in this area occurred in 2020, with previous sales averaging around 58,000 yuan per square meter, while recent transactions have stabilized around 55,000 yuan per square meter [3][4] - The Changping district has successfully auctioned five plots by November 2025, matching the total land supply for the entire previous year, with a total transaction value of 10.454 billion yuan [4] New Housing Market Characteristics - Currently, there are nine active projects in Changping, with prices ranging from approximately 39,000 yuan to 61,300 yuan per square meter, indicating a diverse market catering to various buyer needs [4][5] - New housing projects are increasingly located near major commercial centers and subway lines, leading to a significant price gap between new and second-hand homes [5][6] - The average price of new homes in the Changping Beiqijia area is around 53,900 yuan per square meter, while second-hand homes in the same area range from 18,000 to 28,000 yuan per square meter [5] Product Offerings and Consumer Preferences - The primary unit sizes for new homes in the Changping area are concentrated between 75 and 130 square meters, with a focus on three-bedroom designs to meet both first-time buyers and those seeking upgrades [8][9] - Some developers are introducing larger units to differentiate their offerings, although these larger units represent a small percentage of total inventory [9] - The trend towards higher quality housing is evident, with new projects featuring high space utilization rates and enhanced community amenities, such as fitness centers and social spaces [11][12] Quality and Value Enhancement - The introduction of "good housing" projects in Changping signifies a quality upgrade in the new housing market, with improved design and higher standards of living [11][12] - The average usable area ratio for new homes has increased to over 90%, compared to around 75% for second-hand homes, enhancing the value proposition for buyers [11][12] - The ongoing supply of quality land is expected to drive further improvements in housing quality and create a cluster effect for high-quality developments in the region [12]

Group 1 - The core idea is that middle-aged individuals are well-suited for entrepreneurship, particularly in businesses that can be sustained over a long period, such as selling spicy boiled bullfrogs, which meet the criteria of high frequency, essential demand, and high profit margins [1][5][8] Group 2 - High-frequency demand ensures stable income, as spicy boiled bullfrogs are a popular choice for regular consumption, leading to predictable sales volumes [3][5] - Essential consumption drives repeat purchases, with a reported 65% repurchase rate for such food items, indicating a strong customer return rate [3][5] - High profit margins are crucial for business sustainability, with small shops potentially earning around 8,000 yuan daily, making it a viable option for middle-aged entrepreneurs [4][5] Group 3 - Success in entrepreneurship often comes from perfecting ordinary products, such as ensuring consistent taste and excellent service in the spicy boiled bullfrog business [5][8] - Couples running small businesses benefit from lower costs, strong execution, and effective communication, allowing for flexible operations and resilience against market fluctuations [6][8] Group 4 - Key considerations for this business include food safety, ingredient stability, and maintaining flavor consistency, along with strategic location choices to maximize foot traffic [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou land market is becoming active as it enters the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" period, with significant transactions indicating confidence in the city's real estate sector [1][5]. Group 1: Land Transactions - On September 2, Xiamen Guomao Real Estate successfully acquired a residential land parcel in Guangzhou's Liwan District for a base price of 506 million yuan, with a floor price of approximately 21,500 yuan per square meter, marking the first residential land transaction in Guangzhou for September [1][3]. - The acquired land is the first residential land sold in the Shiwetang area of Liwan District in two years, located near the core development area of Baie Tan, enhancing its attractiveness [3]. - The land's proximity to the subway and key urban areas is expected to boost its value, with the potential for a profitable project given the surrounding second-hand housing prices averaging around 40,000 yuan per square meter [3][4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The Guangzhou land market is accelerating the pace of new land releases, with multiple parcels being listed for sale in early September, indicating a robust supply of quality land [7]. - In the first eight months of 2023, Xiamen Guomao's sales reached 25.41 billion yuan, placing it among the top 20 real estate companies, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4]. - The overall market performance in Guangzhou shows a recovery in the second half of the year, with new housing transactions increasing by nearly 17% year-on-year in the first half, although the market has shown signs of cooling recently [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the upcoming release of more high-quality residential land will invigorate the market, with expectations of a positive impact on future land transactions [7]. - The efforts by various real estate companies to stabilize prices and encourage purchases are seen as crucial for maintaining market confidence and promoting a healthy cycle in the industry [8].

Group 1 - The overall trend in the real estate market is stabilizing, but opinions vary on the timeline for recovery, with some predicting a rebound this year and others suggesting it may take three to five years [1] - Economist Zhu Ning predicts a potential decline in housing prices by 20%-30% by early 2024, despite recent stabilization due to policy support, as the market has entered a downward trend again [3][5] - Long-term factors such as demographic shifts, slowing urbanization, and changing attitudes among young people are driving a deep adjustment in the real estate market, shifting the perception of housing from an investment to a consumer good [3][6] Group 2 - Zhu Ning's previous warnings about the real estate market, particularly regarding the "implicit guarantee" that inflated housing prices, have gained attention as the market dynamics shift [5] - The notion of "housing as a necessity" is challenged, with the argument that effective demand is more relevant than the concept of "just demand," emphasizing the need for housing to meet actual living requirements rather than being viewed as an investment [6][8] - The expectation that buying a home guarantees wealth accumulation has reversed, leading to a new focus on selling homes rather than buying, which is crucial for stabilizing the market [6][8]

Group 1 - The concept of "just demand" is summarized into three main points: significantly improving efficiency, greatly reducing costs, and greatly enhancing user experience [1] - An efficiency improvement of 15% is considered insufficient, as it primarily benefits competitors or industry leaders rather than the innovating company [1] Group 2 - The article promotes a course titled "Consumption Reconstruction Selected Course," featuring top practical mentors from the consumer sector in China and Japan [2] - The course aims to provide insights into efficiency revolution, demand reconstruction, and capital breakthroughs, drawing from 30 years of Japanese experience adapted to the Chinese market [2] Group 3 - The course fee is originally priced at 12,800 yuan per person, with an early bird price of 9,800 yuan per person [3] - The event is scheduled to take place in Shanghai from August 7 to August 9 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent positive trends in the real estate markets of major Chinese cities, particularly focusing on the impact of government policies aimed at stabilizing and revitalizing the housing market. The combination of reduced purchasing restrictions, lower mortgage interest burdens, and the introduction of quality housing standards has led to increased activity in the real estate sector, especially in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1]. Beijing Real Estate Market - In Beijing, the overall real estate market has remained active in the first half of the year, with new housing transactions reaching 18,085 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% [6]. - The average transaction price for new homes in Beijing has risen to 7.8 million yuan, showing significant growth compared to the previous year [5]. - The market is characterized by a clear regional differentiation, with high demand for quality projects in prime locations, particularly in Haidian District, while areas like Fangshan see lower interest and price adjustments [7][8]. Shanghai Real Estate Market - Shanghai's real estate market has shown robust performance, with a 30% year-on-year increase in total housing transactions in the first five months, totaling 1,094 million square meters [12]. - New housing transactions in Shanghai increased by 9% year-on-year, with prices rising by 5.9% in May [12]. - The luxury segment has seen strong demand, with several high-end projects selling out quickly, indicating a healthy appetite for premium properties [12][13]. Guangzhou Real Estate Market - In Guangzhou, the real estate market has experienced a rebound in transaction volume, with a 12.98% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions, totaling 56,613 units in the first half of the year [16][17]. - The market is primarily driven by first-time homebuyers, with a significant portion of transactions occurring in the lower price range, particularly properties priced below 300 million yuan [17]. - The removal of purchase restrictions has contributed to increased interest from external buyers, further stimulating the market [16]. Shenzhen Real Estate Market - Shenzhen's real estate market has also performed well, with a 49.6% year-on-year increase in total transactions, reaching approximately 64,000 units [20]. - The market is characterized by a strong presence of first-time buyers, with nearly two-thirds of purchasers being new entrants [19]. - The demand for high-quality housing has led to a competitive environment, with many projects experiencing rapid sales, while lower-quality offerings face challenges [20][21]. Market Outlook - Analysts expect that the real estate markets in these major cities will continue to stabilize, with potential for further policy support to enhance buyer confidence and stimulate demand [10][22]. - The anticipated seasonal uptick in transactions during the traditional peak periods, combined with ongoing policy adjustments, is likely to sustain market activity in the latter half of the year [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with transaction volume increasing by 17% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization in prices and market expectations [1][5][10]. Group 1: Transaction Volume and Market Trends - In Q1 2025, the total transaction area for both new and second-hand homes reached 82.04 million square meters, marking a 17% year-on-year increase, which is at the median level over the past six years [5]. - The year-on-year growth rate for second-hand homes outpaced that of new homes in most cities, with Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou seeing around 50% increases in second-hand transactions [6][8]. - The "recognizing house but not loan" policy has led to a 40% week-on-week increase in viewings for second-hand homes in key cities, indicating a quicker recovery in new home purchases [10]. Group 2: Listing Volume and Market Dynamics - The growth rate of new listings for second-hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 16% and 55% in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively, while Shenzhen and Hangzhou saw declines of 11% and 19% [12][14]. - The proportion of listings for luxury homes priced over 10 million yuan has increased in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, while Shenzhen has seen a decline in high-end listings [15][20]. Group 3: Demand Segmentation and Price Trends - The concentration of transactions for affordable housing has decreased, while the demand for high-end and luxury properties has increased, particularly in the 140 square meters and above segment [23][27]. - Over half of the second-hand housing units in major cities have seen price increases, with more than 50% of neighborhoods in Shanghai and Hangzhou reporting rising prices [33][35]. - The bargaining space for second-hand homes in Beijing and Shanghai has narrowed over the past year, with current negotiation margins remaining below 20% in major cities [44]. Group 4: Market Confidence and Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market is transitioning from a phase of "price reduction for volume" to "volume increase with stable prices," indicating a more active supply and demand dynamic [42][43]. - The recovery in market confidence is reflected in the rising prices of high-end properties, while the prices of affordable housing are stabilizing, suggesting a potential upward trend in the near future [44][45].