Core Insights - The real estate market in Shanghai experienced a mixed performance during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with new housing projects seeing increased visitor numbers and sales, while the second-hand housing market remained sluggish [2][9][12]. New Housing Market - During the holiday period from October 1 to October 8, several new housing projects launched promotional activities, leading to a notable increase in customer visits and sales [4][12]. - Poly Developments reported over 4,000 customer visits and a sales volume of 1.28 billion yuan across 11 projects during the holiday [4]. - The "Zhaoshang Shidai Chaopai" project successfully sold 16 units despite a lower than usual visitor count, averaging over 40 groups of customers daily [4][5]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai saw a significant decline, with only 780 transactions recorded during the holiday, a drop of over 63% compared to the same period in 2024 [9][10]. - The average daily transaction volume was only 111 units, indicating a continued cautious sentiment among buyers [9][10]. - Year-to-date data shows that the second-hand housing market remains resilient, with a total of 191,000 transactions from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [9][12]. Market Trends and Outlook - The new housing market is expected to maintain a cautious optimism for the fourth quarter, driven by the recent policy changes and an increase in new project supply [12][14]. - The "Hushi Liu Tiao" policy introduced in August has positively impacted the market, leading to a significant increase in new housing transactions in September [12][14]. - Analysts suggest that while the second-hand market is currently weak, the overall market is in a phase of stabilization, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the near future [14][15].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank is expected to continue using targeted structural monetary policy tools to support enterprises affected by the pandemic, with a focus on increasing loan support for private enterprises to restore effective financing demand and assist in reshaping the industrial chain [2][3] - The possibility of lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is anticipated, as it would have a significant impact on stabilizing housing loans and expectations, especially given the current weak credit structure [3] - The monetary policy will also focus on stabilizing employment, prices, and promoting domestic demand while mitigating risks, which requires support for struggling industries and enhancing effective investment [3] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Developments - Fiscal policy is expected to continue to be strengthened in the second half of the year, with the issuance of special bonds reaching 34,062 billion yuan in the first half, completing 98.7% of the allocated quota [4] - There is potential for increasing the issuance of special bonds or advancing the issuance of next year's special bonds to address economic pressures [4][5] - The use of special bonds is anticipated to accelerate, with expectations for infrastructure investment and tax reductions to alleviate fiscal pressure [5][6]