↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 来源：燕园创投 塔勒布是一位数学家型的交易员，是纽约大学的研究员，是有独特的交易策略的投资人，也是一位哲学家，是人们口中的"黑天鹅"之父，也是战乱 中长大的思想家。 塔勒布的基金被称为尾部基金（Tail Fund），大家也称之为黑天鹅基金（Black Swan Fund），他的交易策略，简单理解，就是平时每天小亏，一 遇到黑天鹅事件就会大赚。 塔勒布相信世界是由"肥尾事件"主宰的，只是人们对其知之甚少。 "不确定性"在他的投资哲学里有重要地位。塔勒布认为，"注入一些混乱可以稳定系统"、脆弱的人渴望安宁，而反脆弱的人在无序中成长。 以下是塔勒布的新书《肥尾效应》的书摘以及其中关于运气、不确定性、人为错误以及相关风险与决策的金句，与诸君分享。 01 "肥尾效应"：一句顶一万句 一直以来，塔勒布的主要研究聚焦在"肥尾"的应用，即"极少数极端事件的影响超过绝大多数平常事件"，类似于"一句顶一万句"的效果，但这 些"极少数极端事件"往往也是最不可预测的。 塔勒布曾说人们生活中最大的错觉就是「随机性是一种风险，是一件坏事」，把观察不到的东西当成不存在，更是近年来开始流行的一种疾病。 塔勒 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company/Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around investment strategies, particularly focusing on market timing (择时) and stock selection (择券) within the investment banking sector. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Unpredictability**: The market is often unpredictable, and it is emphasized that investors should avoid guessing market movements. The speaker suggests that most of the time, the market behaves randomly, with a 50/50 chance of gains or losses [1][2][3]. 2. **Importance of Signal Points**: There are specific times in the year where clear signals can be identified, which differ from the usual random market behavior. These signal points are crucial for making decisive investment decisions [2][4]. 3. **Current Market Indicators**: The current market indicators are described as being around 0.35, which is considered neither high nor low. This indicates a neutral market environment where significant movements are not expected [3][4]. 4. **Communication with Clients**: The speaker stresses the importance of clear communication with clients, especially in a market that is not showing clear trends. Investors should express their strategies and the reasoning behind them effectively [5][6]. 5. **Investment Strategy**: The speaker suggests that during neutral market phases, investors should focus on stock selection strategies rather than making aggressive moves. It is recommended to maintain a balanced portfolio and adjust positions based on market conditions [7][8]. 6. **Performance Metrics**: The speaker mentions that their investment strategy has yielded a 64.7% success rate compared to the market's 74.7%. This highlights the importance of not overestimating one's ability to predict market movements [9][10]. 7. **Risk Management**: Emphasis is placed on the need for a clear risk management strategy, particularly for high-priced stocks. Investors should establish stop-loss levels to mitigate potential losses [12][13]. 8. **Diversification**: The speaker advocates for diversification across different technical patterns and sectors to reduce risk. This includes balancing between cyclical and technology stocks [15][16]. 9. **Mindset and Randomness**: Acknowledgment of the inherent randomness in the market is crucial. Investors should maintain a healthy mindset and not become overly stressed by market fluctuations [17]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The discussion touches on the psychological aspects of investing, where investors may struggle with accepting uncertain market conditions. The speaker encourages a focus on strategy rather than emotional responses to market changes [5][17]. - The need for a structured approach to changing investment strategies is highlighted, suggesting that frequent adjustments may not be beneficial for larger funds [11]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current investment landscape and strategies.

Group 1 - The article discusses the unpredictability of life, illustrated by tragic events such as a plane crash and the sudden death of a fitness coach, emphasizing the randomness of existence [1][2][3][4][5] - It highlights the concept of "randomness" as a fundamental aspect of life, suggesting that individuals often underestimate the potential for unexpected events to disrupt their plans [6][7][8] - The narrative reflects on the importance of recognizing and accepting randomness, which can lead to a more fulfilling life despite uncertainties [9][10][11] Group 2 - The article introduces strategies for coping with randomness, such as assessing risks in decision-making and preparing for worst-case scenarios [12][13][14] - It emphasizes the need for building resilience through health checks, financial safety nets, and developing additional skills to mitigate the impact of unforeseen events [13][14][15] - The discussion also points out that randomness can create opportunities, particularly for ordinary individuals in chaotic environments, allowing them to thrive where traditional structures may fail [15][16]