行业研究丨深度报告丨媒体Ⅱ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 受过去一年业绩增长、政策优化和 AI 应用落地的共同推动，游戏板块整体估值已回升至历史中 枢附近。长线产品和丰富产品储备对增强游戏公司业绩确定性和提振板块估值具有关键作用， 从海外游戏厂商估值来看，优质 IP 和平台化能力为高估值的核心支撑。从国内游戏板块历史来 看，技术革新、政策支持和业绩提升多周期共振，使行业迎来估值中枢的持续上修。展望未来， AI 和玩法创新将带来持续增量，中国市场成长确定性强，行业中长期估值有望进一步向海外龙 头靠拢。 [Table_Title] 如何看待游戏板块估值天花板：历史复盘和未来 展望 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高超 杨云祺 SAC：S0490516080001 SAC：S0490524090002 SFC：BUX177 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 32 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 如何看待游戏板块 2] 估值天花板：历史复盘和未 ...

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the AI sector during the Spring Festival has overshadowed the music industry, where ByteDance's "Soda Music" is rapidly gaining market share, posing a significant threat to NetEase's "NetEase Cloud Music" [2][44]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The top four free apps on the App Store are all AI-related, while "Soda Music" ranks fifth, indicating a shift in user interest towards AI applications [2]. - "Soda Music" has reached nearly 140 million monthly active users, growing from 120 million to 130 million between September and November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 90.7% [6]. - The daily active users of "Soda Music" have surpassed those of "NetEase Cloud Music," which has only seen a 1.5% year-on-year growth in monthly active users, indicating stagnation after over ten years of operation [7][8]. Group 2: Competitive Strategies - ByteDance's growth strategy for "Soda Music" leverages organic traffic from Douyin (TikTok), with 82.1% of its monthly active users coming from the platform, creating a new music consumption habit [12]. - In contrast, NetEase Cloud Music is struggling with community engagement dilution, as its once-vibrant comment sections have become less meaningful due to a shift in user behavior towards Douyin [15][16]. - NetEase's strategy to support independent musicians has not compensated for the lack of access to major music licenses, limiting its appeal to mainstream users [20]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by NetEase - NetEase Cloud Music's revenue for 2025 was 7.76 billion yuan, a slight decline from 8 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a contraction rather than growth [24]. - The competitive landscape in gaming is also shifting, with NetEase's game revenue growth slowing down, highlighting a broader issue of stagnation across multiple business segments [28]. - The company faces pressure from various fronts, including music, gaming, AI, and e-commerce, with a lack of cohesive strategy leading to vulnerabilities [31][32]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The traditional strategy of slow, quality-focused development may not be effective in the fast-paced AI era, where speed and scale are critical [35]. - NetEase's lack of an integrated ecosystem compared to competitors like ByteDance and Tencent limits its ability to compete effectively in the AI and music markets [37]. - The urgency for NetEase to adapt and find a new narrative is critical, as the competitive landscape continues to evolve rapidly [40][45].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming game "Forgotten Sea" developed by NetEase's Joker Studio, highlighting its innovative gameplay mechanics and potential market impact, especially in the context of the Chinese gaming industry. Group 1: Game Performance and Reception - "Forgotten Sea" has garnered significant attention, with its character PV reaching 2.44 million views on Bilibili and over 10 million views for its earlier test preview [1][3] - NetEase expressed confidence in making "Forgotten Sea" a leading product in the domestic gaming market, with CEO Ding Lei showing optimism about its prospects [3][4] Group 2: Gameplay Mechanics and Design - The game incorporates a blend of various gameplay styles, emphasizing the importance of randomness as a core element, which has become increasingly significant in long-term operational games [7][9] - "Forgotten Sea" features an exploration-adventure framework with a unique cycle of "setting sail—returning—setting sail," extending the duration of each exploration session [11] - The game integrates Roguelike elements and a dice system in its turn-based combat, allowing for a mix of strategy and chance in gameplay [13][15] Group 3: Market Insights and Development Strategy - Joker Studio's approach reflects a deep understanding of market trends, focusing on unique artistic styles and gameplay that diverge from mainstream offerings [18][19] - The studio aims to balance creativity and commercial viability, avoiding the pitfalls of following trends without innovation [16][21] Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite its promising framework, "Forgotten Sea" faces challenges such as technical issues and a steep learning curve for players, which may affect initial engagement [21][23] - The game is set to launch in Q3 2026, and while it is expected to perform well, improvements in player onboarding and clarity of gameplay mechanics are necessary for better retention [26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance of the gaming sector, particularly focusing on NetEase's financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, which show a net revenue of 112.6 billion yuan (approximately 16.1 billion USD), representing a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [1][2] - NetEase's net profit attributable to shareholders for fiscal year 2025 reached 33.8 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [1][2] - The gaming and related value-added services segment generated a net revenue of 92.1 billion yuan, with online gaming net revenue reaching 89.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11% [1][2] Group 2 - The gaming sector remains a key driver of NetEase's revenue growth, with the online gaming segment accounting for approximately 97.3% of the total revenue in fiscal year 2025, up from 96.2% in fiscal year 2024 [2] - Popular games such as "Dream of the Red Chamber" and "Identity V," along with new releases like "Wind of the Continent" and "Marvel Duel," have significantly contributed to the increase in net revenue [2] - The gaming sector is experiencing multiple catalysts, including AI applications, content innovation, and changes in commercialization models, supported by favorable policies and product cycles, creating an attractive investment window in the gaming ETF (159869) [2]

Core Viewpoint - NetEase reported its Q4 2025 unaudited financial results, showing a decline in net profit primarily due to increased expenses and investment losses, which fell short of market expectations [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, NetEase achieved net revenue of RMB 27.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3% [1]. - Gross profit for the same quarter was RMB 17.7 billion, up 8.7% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 6.24 billion, down 28% from RMB 8.77 billion in the same period last year, missing market expectations [1][2]. - Total operating expenses reached RMB 9.37 billion, a significant increase of 10.9% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company recorded an investment loss of RMB 1.67 billion, an increase of over RMB 1.1 billion compared to the previous year [1]. Business Segments - NetEase's main business segments include gaming and related value-added services, Youdao, NetEase Cloud Music, and other innovative businesses [3]. - Gaming and related value-added services generated RMB 92.1 billion in net revenue for 2025, a growth of over 10% [3]. - In Q4, gaming revenue was RMB 22 billion, accounting for 80% of total revenue, but fell short of market expectations of RMB 23.42 billion [3][4]. - The decline in gaming revenue was attributed to a lack of new game releases and decreased revenue from existing titles [3]. Future Prospects - NetEase is developing new games, including the open-world game "Forgotten Sea," expected to launch in Q3 2025, and a closed beta for the urban open-world game "Infinite" has shown positive results [6]. - The CEO emphasized that while AI tools lower the entry barrier for game development, they also raise the success threshold for commercial titles [7]. - In non-gaming segments, Youdao and NetEase Cloud Music reported Q4 net revenues of RMB 1.6 billion and RMB 2 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 16.8% and 4.7% [7].

尽管网易四季度业绩疲软，低于市场预期，但摩根大通认为公司实际经营表现远好于账面数据所呈现的水平。 网易公布2025年第四季度财报，营收同比增长仅3%，净利润更是同比下降27%，双双低于彭博一致预期约4%和23%，这直接导致港股股价盘前 承压， 开盘下挫4%。 但摩根大通发表研报指出，《燕云十六声》等新游戏的强劲现金流水已反映在合同负债中，而非经常性损失掩盖了核心营业利润的出色表现。 此外随着《遗忘之海》和《无限大》等重磅新游上线，预计将推动2026-2027年游戏收入实现13%的年复合增长率。摩根大通维持对网易的"增 持"评级，目标价295港元（190美元），基于2026年预测市盈率13倍的估值具有吸引力。 真实现金流水远超账面收入 研报指出，市场对网易收入的失望主要源于Q4网游收入仅同比增长4%，且环比下降了7%。这很容易被解读为增长乏力。 例如《蛋仔派对》和《第五人格》的排名和流水均出现下滑，但这部分归因于暑假季节性因素消退。 净利润同比下降27%，比起彭博一致预期低了23%，这个数字确实吓人。但这并非网易的业务出了问题，而是因为投资账面浮亏。 摩根大通指出，Q4网易确认了高达22亿元人民币的权益投资及汇 ...

Core Insights - NetEase reported a total revenue of 112.6 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 7% [1] - The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was 37.3 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 27.5 billion yuan, a 3% increase year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased to 6.2 billion yuan from 8.8 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] Gaming Business - The gaming and related value-added services generated a net income of 92.1 billion yuan for the year, accounting for 81.8% of total revenue [1] - Online gaming net income reached 89.6 billion yuan, marking an 11% year-on-year growth, driven by classic titles like "Fantasy Westward Journey" and new releases such as "The Legend of Yan Yun" and "Marvel Contest of Champions" [1] - "The Legend of Yan Yun" has surpassed 80 million global users, and Blizzard's games returning to the Chinese market have set new annual revenue records [1] Other Business Segments - NetEase Youdao achieved a revenue of 5.9 billion yuan for the year, marking its first year of positive operating profit and cash flow [1] - NetEase Cloud Music reported a revenue of 7.8 billion yuan, slightly down from 8 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The innovation and other business segment generated a revenue of 6.8 billion yuan [1] - The company's R&D investment reached 17.7 billion yuan, exceeding 10 billion yuan for six consecutive years [1] Financial Performance - For the year 2025, NetEase's operating profit was 35.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21%, with a gross margin of 64.29% [2] - As of the end of 2025, the company had a net cash balance of 163.5 billion yuan and a net cash inflow from operating activities of 50.7 billion yuan [2] - The board announced an extension of the $5 billion stock repurchase plan until 2029, with approximately $2 billion repurchased by the end of 2025 [2] Market Challenges - NetEase is currently facing valuation pressure, with concerns regarding slowing growth in gaming revenue and high base profit margins for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [2] - The CEO emphasized that AI has become a core capability in their R&D and operations, systematically applied in game development and gameplay innovation [2]

Core Viewpoint - NetEase's Q4 2025 earnings report showed disappointing results, primarily due to a slowdown in mobile gaming revenue, which fell short of market expectations. However, the long-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with a focus on upcoming product cycles being crucial for short-term performance [1][6]. Group 1: Revenue Performance - Q4 gaming revenue reached CNY 213 billion, a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, significantly below market expectations due to a lack of new game releases and the performance of existing titles [1][10]. - Deferred revenue grew by 34% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, driven by the anniversary celebration of "Yanyun" and a rebound in "Egg Party" [2][12]. - The absence of new mobile games has led to continued pressure on mobile revenue, with key titles like "Identity V" and "Naraka: Bladepoint" experiencing declines [15][25]. Group 2: Cost Management and Profitability - Core operating profit margin improved to 30%, reflecting effective cost control amid revenue pressures, with total costs, R&D, and management expenses declining year-on-year [3][39]. - Non-GAAP net profit was CNY 72 billion, significantly lower than market expectations due to investment losses, while core operating profit was CNY 83 billion, only slightly below expectations [43][46]. Group 3: Shareholder Returns - The company announced a special dividend of approximately CNY 50 billion for Q4, maintaining a high payout ratio of over 80%, although the overall shareholder return remains low at 2.5% relative to its market capitalization [4][46]. - Total shareholder returns for the year amounted to USD 2 billion (CNY 141 billion), which is not considered sufficient to provide effective support for the stock price [4][46]. Group 4: Business Segment Performance - Other business segments, such as Youdao Education and Cloud Music, showed stable performance, with Youdao's revenue growing by 17% driven by advertising and online courses, while Cloud Music returned to growth [34]. - The innovative services segment, primarily focused on e-commerce, continued to shrink due to competitive pressures [34].

Core Insights - In 2025, NetEase achieved total revenue of 112.626 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [1][2] - The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 37.3 billion RMB, reflecting an increase of 11.3% year-on-year [1][2] Business Performance - The net revenue from games and related value-added services reached 92.1 billion RMB for the year, with fourth-quarter revenue at 22 billion RMB, showing a growth of 3.4% [3] - Established titles like "Fantasy Westward Journey" and "Identity V" continued to generate stable revenue, while new games "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" and "Marvel Duel" contributed additional income [3] Financial Status - The gross margin for 2025 improved to 64.29%, indicating optimization compared to the previous year [4] - The net cash flow from operating activities accounted for 45.05% of total revenue, demonstrating healthy cash flow [4] - The board approved a quarterly dividend and extended a stock repurchase plan of 5 billion USD until 2029, with approximately 2 billion USD of shares repurchased by the end of 2025 [4] Business and Technology Development - Management emphasized that AI has become a foundational capability in game development, operations, and innovation [5] - Research and development investment reached 17.7 billion RMB, maintaining an intensity of over 15% [5] - The application of AI technology in areas such as UGC content generation for games and intelligent interaction in educational products is deepening [5] Company Business Status - Youdao showed strong performance with fourth-quarter revenue of 1.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, exceeding market expectations [6] - Cloud Music generated revenue of 2 billion RMB, reflecting a stable growth of 4.7% [6] - Revenue from innovative and other businesses was 2 billion RMB, down 10.4% year-on-year, primarily due to business adjustments [6] Strategic Advancement - New products like "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" and "Marvel Duel" received positive responses in overseas markets, with plans to further increase the share of overseas revenue [7] - The return of Blizzard games to the domestic market has revitalized the user ecosystem [7]

Core Viewpoint - NetEase's Q4 2025 financial results showed a revenue of 27.5 billion RMB, a 3% year-on-year increase, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.2 billion RMB, down nearly 30% from 8.8 billion RMB in the same period last year, falling short of market expectations [2][4]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, NetEase's revenue was 27.5 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 3% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 was 6.2 billion RMB, a decrease of approximately 30% compared to 8.8 billion RMB in Q4 2024 [2][4]. - Total revenue for the full year 2025 reached 112.6 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of about 7% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the full year 2025 was 33.8 billion RMB, up 13.8% year-on-year [4]. Cost and Expenses - Sales and marketing expenses in Q4 increased by approximately 1.07 billion RMB to 3.89 billion RMB compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - Overall investment losses reached 1.67 billion RMB, an increase of about 1.2 billion RMB, along with foreign exchange losses exceeding 500 million RMB [2]. Business Segments - The core gaming and related value-added services generated revenue of 22 billion RMB in Q4, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, accounting for 80% of total revenue [4]. - The flagship games such as "Fantasy Westward Journey" and "Identity V" supported the revenue base, while new games like "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" and "Marvel Showdown" contributed to revenue growth [4]. - Other business segments included NetEase Youdao with Q4 revenue of 1.6 billion RMB, up 16.8% year-on-year, and NetEase Cloud Music with revenue of 2 billion RMB, a 4.7% increase year-on-year [4]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - As of December 31, 2025, NetEase's net cash balance was 163.5 billion RMB, up from 131.5 billion RMB in 2024 [7]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2025 was 50.7 billion RMB, compared to 39.7 billion RMB in 2024 [7]. Industry Insights - Management discussed the impact of AI on the gaming industry, noting that while AI lowers the entry barrier for game development, it raises the success threshold for major commercial titles [5][6]. - The introduction of generative models like Google's Genie 3 has caused significant market reactions, but management believes the market may misunderstand its implications for the gaming industry [5][6].