2. 资金面 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，1月30日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4775亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量4775亿元，中标量4775亿元。Wind数据显 示，当日1250亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放3525亿元。当周实现净投放5805亿元。 2月2日到6日当周，央行公开市场将有17615亿元逆回购到期，此外，2月4日将有7000亿元91天期买断式逆回购到期。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 银行间市场资金面整体平稳均衡，DR001加权平均利率降超3bp至1.32%附近。匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价在1.30%，供给在百亿左右。交易员 称，跨月整体比较平稳；同时央行公开市场逆回购操作力度加大，呵护意图明显。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为3.64%。 // 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.60%位置，较上日小幅下行。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 10年期主力合约涨0.06% 5年期主力合约涨0.01% ...

Financial Data Summary - In September, new social financing (社融) amounted to 3.5 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2 trillion RMB, with the stock of social financing growing at 8.7% year-on-year[3] - The growth rate of M2 in September was 8.4%, while M1 continued to rise to 7.2%[7] - The credit growth rate for social financing dropped to 6.4%, reflecting a decline in government bonds and credit[3] Economic Outlook - For the period from October to December, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 trillion RMB in social financing is expected, potentially dragging down the growth rate by 0.3 percentage points[3] - The recent issuance of replacement bonds may impact credit availability, as hidden debt replacement bonds could further suppress credit growth[3] - Future focus should be on the pace of US-China tariff negotiations and potential incremental policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools[9] Sector Analysis - In September, new loans totaled 1.3 trillion RMB, with household loans increasing by 0.4 trillion RMB and corporate loans at 1.2 trillion RMB, but both showed year-on-year declines[11] - The government bond issuance in September was 1.2 trillion RMB, down 0.3 trillion RMB year-on-year, indicating a potential ongoing drag on social financing growth[11] - The increase in M1 is attributed to improved cash flow for enterprises and a shift of non-bank deposits to demand deposits[25] Risks and Considerations - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations, impacting credit growth and social financing stock[10] - Uncertainty remains regarding the final implementation of tariff policies between the US and China[10] - Potential discrepancies in central bank data reporting could affect the accuracy of financial assessments[10]