Group 1: US Dollar - The Federal Reserve's research report warns of uncertain economic outlook potentially leading to zero interest rate risks [1] - Fed Chair candidate Walsh suggests interest rates should be lowered further [1] Group 2: Major Non-USD Currencies - ECB council member Centeno states that the timing and extent of further rate cuts are difficult to determine [2] - Fitch predicts Japan's debt trajectory will rise again by the end of this century [2] - ECB indicates that risks to financial stability in the Eurozone have increased due to rising global geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Japanese Prime Minister expresses regret over US tariff information and emphasizes ongoing negotiations [2] - South Korean Trade Minister states that a three-week extension of tariff suspension is insufficient and negotiations must accelerate [2] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akizawa announces agreement with US Commerce Secretary to actively participate in trade talks, prioritizing national interests [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly keeps the benchmark interest rate at 3.85%, indicating a wait for more information to confirm sustainable inflation at 2.5% [2] - RBA Governor Bullock mentions a cautious and gradual easing stance is appropriate, with confidence in future rate cuts [2] - Australian Treasurer notes that the RBA's decision to maintain rates was not expected by millions of Australians or the market, clarifying future inflation and rate trajectories [2] Group 3: Other Developments - Emerging market ETFs see inflows for the sixth consecutive week, with China receiving the largest inflow [3] - The World Bank reports that Syria is facing a severe liquidity crisis due to cash shortages and broader disruptions in currency circulation [3] - Moody's maintains Israel's Baa1 rating while warning that conflict with Iran will increase fiscal pressure [3]

Key Points - The U.S. President Trump announced new tariffs on imports from 14 countries, including a 25% tariff on goods from Japan and South Korea, and tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Thailand, effective August 1 [9] - The Federal Reserve Chairman candidate, Waller, suggested that the Fed should lower interest rates further, while a Fed report warned of potential zero interest rate risks due to uncertain economic outlook [11] - OPEC+ is expected to approve a significant production increase of approximately 550,000 barrels per day in September [11] Market Overview - WTI crude oil rose by 2.11% to $67.01 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.65% to $69.02 per barrel, driven by strong demand despite concerns over OPEC+ production increases and U.S. tariffs [3] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.58% to 97.51, while the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.385% [6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.94%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.79%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.92%, with notable declines in stocks like Tesla and Apple [3] Stock Market Performance - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed down 0.12%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.25% [4] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.7% and 1.21%, respectively [5] - The cryptocurrency sector saw significant gains, with some stocks rising over 10%, while sectors like biomedicine and dairy products faced declines [4][5]

Domestic News - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion by the end of June 2025, an increase of $32.2 billion compared to the end of May [1] International News - The White House announced that Trump plans to extend the tariff suspension period until August 1 [1] - Trump issued tariff letters to 14 countries, imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea, and tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Thailand starting August 1 [1] - The EU reported good progress in trade negotiations with the US [1] - Portugal's finance minister indicated that the US and EU are likely to reach a very low tariff agreement, potentially below 10% [1] - Thailand has submitted a new trade proposal to the US [1] - EU sources stated that the EU will not receive letters from the US regarding increased tariffs [1] - The EU is seeking an agreement with the US to offset the automotive trade deficit, which may include basic tariff exemptions on aircraft and spirits [1] - A White House official stated that specific country tariffs will not be combined with industry tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's research report warns of the potential return to near-zero interest rates in the coming years, despite current short-term borrowing costs being relatively high [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The report, co-authored by New York Fed President John Williams, indicates that the risk of the Fed's interest rate target returning to ultra-low levels is currently at the lower end of the range observed over the past fifteen years [1] - The researchers note that due to rising uncertainties, the likelihood of returning to near-zero interest rates in the medium to long term remains "significant" [1]