来源：天风研究 基本金属：铜铝普涨，降息驱动铜价创历史新高。贵金属：美联储降息预期强化，金银价格震荡走强。 小金属：锑价小幅回调。稀土永磁：核心磁材公司获通用许可证，出口存放松预期。能源金属：整体呈 现震荡态势。 贵金属：美联储降息预期强化，金银价格震荡走强。 截至12月4日，国内99.95%黄金市场均价850.88元/克，较上周均价上涨1.87%，上海现货1#白银市场均 价13382元/千克，较上周均价上涨10.67%。周初在感恩节假期市场流动性偏弱的背景下，金价的窄幅震 荡反映了投资者在评估美联储信号时的谨慎态度。随后受宏观经济环境和货币政策预期的双重支撑，金 银价格强势上涨。我们看好降息周期中贵金属价格表现。 小金属：锑价小幅回调。 本周0#锑锭市场价格为17.4万元/吨，均价较上周同期下调0.2万元/吨；氧化锑价格下调，99.5%三氧化 二锑市场价格14.55万元/吨，均价较上周同期价格稳定。当前市场价格窄幅波动主要源于两方面支撑： 一是中间商库存成本偏高，低价出货意愿不强，挺价心态较为坚定；二是头部企业年度任务基本完成， 报价多跟随市场情绪。出口方面，近期订单以民营企业申请为主，实际出货规模仍较有限 ...

Group 1 - The recent "anti-involution" sentiment is intensifying, with policy expectations rising, leading to improved market risk appetite and a positive impact on the Shanghai Composite Index, which has surpassed 3600 points [1] - Industrial product inflation expectations are being driven by both supply-side "anti-involution" and demand-side investments, indicating a correction in the fundamental outlook [1] - The issuance of long-term special government bonds faced a cold reception, and unexpected tightening of liquidity has reinforced a challenging environment for the bond market [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" initiative is gaining clarity with various legal, regulatory, and industrial measures being implemented, including the draft amendment to the Price Law, which aims to address low-price dumping [2] - The significance of "anti-involution" lies in breaking the negative feedback loop caused by persistently weak prices, which affects supply-demand balance and optimization [2] - Current economic challenges include weak demand and prices, leading to increased deflationary pressures and insufficient leverage for residents and enterprises, creating a negative feedback mechanism [2] Group 3 - The success of "anti-involution" relies heavily on demand-side recovery, with fiscal measures expected to shift from funding allocation to tangible project execution [3] - Compared to previous supply-side reforms, the current "anti-involution" approach is more market-oriented, with a focus on stabilizing demand while considering employment factors [3] - The policy direction emphasizes deepening reforms and high-quality development without resorting to excessive demand-side stimulus or redundant supply-side investments [3] Group 4 - Historical adjustments in the bond market due to supply-side structural reforms suggest that while industrial prices may rise, the demand side is crucial for determining long-term interest rate trends [4] - The relationship between interest rates and core CPI is significant, as core CPI reflects true demand strength, and the transmission of rising industrial prices to broader CPI is critical [4] - Current demand-side dynamics do not exhibit the same strength as previous housing reforms, leading to potential demand drag in the early stages of "anti-involution" [4] Group 5 - Recent risk warnings from exchanges and the implementation of position limits have cooled the commodity futures market, with significant corrections in previously high-performing products [5] - The bond market may see short-term rebound opportunities due to central bank liquidity support, despite the amplified adjustment pressures from bond fund redemptions [5] - Investors should remain cautious of potential redemption waves and monitor central bank actions to stabilize liquidity expectations, especially with upcoming trade negotiations [5]