1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [2]. - For methanol, the futures market is in a weak downward trend. High port inventories persistently suppress prices and the monthly structure. Supply remains high while demand shows little change. The market is trading on weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline [4]. - For urea, prices are oscillating at the bottom and showing relative resilience. With improved demand and cost support, the downside is limited, and it's expected to build a bottom through oscillation. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [7]. - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand in China. Although the valuation has dropped to a low level, it still can't support the current supply - demand imbalance. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is suggested in the medium term [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and with the seasonal peak in demand, styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven downward trend has shifted to the issue of South Korean ethylene clearance [21]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [23]. - For PX, it is expected to experience a slight inventory build - up in November. With a neutral valuation and weakening aromatics blending data, there is a risk of valuation correction [27]. - For PTA, the supply of unexpected outages is expected to decrease, and demand may remain high in the short term. However, PTA processing fees have limited upside, and there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak. Although the inventory build - up may slow down, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended in the medium term [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 7.60 yuan/barrel, a 1.67% decline, at 447.40 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline and diesel inventories increasing, fuel oil inventory decreasing, and total refined oil inventory increasing [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang's price remained stable, Lunan's price decreased by 5, Inner Mongolia's price increased by 5, the 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 12 yuan to 2004 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 4. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 3 to - 134 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures market is in a weak downward trend. High port inventories suppress prices, and there is a risk of further price decline [4]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, Henan's increased by 20, Hubei's increased by 10. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 11 yuan to 1654 yuan, and the basis was - 24. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4 to - 74 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are oscillating at the bottom and showing relative resilience. With improved demand and cost support, the downside is limited. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [7]. 3.4 PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract remained unchanged at 4456 yuan. Changzhou's SG - 5 spot price was 4420 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 36. The 1 - 5 spread was - 300. The cost side remained stable, and the overall开工 rate was 78.8%, with an increase of 0.3%. The demand - side downstream开工 rate was 49.2%, with a decrease of 0.3% [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand in China. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is suggested in the medium term [12]. 3.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene's spot and futures prices remained unchanged, and the basis widened. Styrene's spot and futures prices increased, and the basis strengthened. The upstream开工 rate decreased by 0.30%, and the port inventory decreased by 2.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 increased by 0.21% [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the significant decrease in styrene's port inventory and the seasonal peak in demand, styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. 3.6 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6781 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged at 6855 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 54 yuan to 74. The upstream开工 rate increased by 0.89%. The production enterprise's inventory decreased by 2.59 million tons, and the trader's inventory increased by 0.05 million tons. The downstream average开工率 decreased by 0.29% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven downward trend has shifted to the issue of South Korean ethylene clearance [21]. 3.7 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased by 15 yuan to 6505 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 19 yuan to 105. The upstream开工率 decreased by 0.68%. The production enterprise's, trader's, and port inventories all decreased. The downstream average开工率 increased by 0.14% [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [23]. 3.8 PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 80 yuan to 6750 yuan, and PX CFR decreased by 9 dollars to 824 dollars. The basis was - 19 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was - 14 yuan. China's PX负荷 was 89.5%, an increase of 2.7%, and Asia's was 79.7%, an increase of 1.2%. PTA's负荷 was 71%, a decrease of 4.7%. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 million tons, an increase of 10.8 million tons compared to the previous month [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to experience a slight inventory build - up in November. With a neutral valuation and weakening aromatics blending data, there is a risk of valuation correction [27]. 3.9 PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 30 yuan to 4666 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 4615 yuan. The basis was - 63 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan. PTA's负荷 was 71%, a decrease of 4.7%. The downstream负荷 was 91.3%, an increase of 0.8%. The social inventory on November 7 was 222.7 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons compared to the previous period. The spot processing fee increased by 35 yuan to 199 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 22 yuan to 238 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of unexpected outages is expected to decrease, and demand may remain high in the short term. However, PTA processing fees have limited upside, and there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [29]. 3.10 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 14 yuan to 3808 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 33 yuan to 3852 yuan. The basis was 32 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 93 yuan. The supply - side负荷 was 70.8%, a decrease of 0.7%. The downstream负荷 was 91.3%, an increase of 0.8%. The port inventory increased by 7.1 million tons to 73.2 million tons [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak. Although the inventory build - up may slow down, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended in the medium term [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness when prices fall [2]. - For methanol, the futures market continues to decline weakly. High port inventory pressure persists, with limited destocking before the 01 contract. Supply remains high while demand shows little change. The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline [3]. - For urea, prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, showing relative resilience. Supply - side corporate profits are low, and production has slightly declined but is still high year - on - year. Demand has improved due to agricultural reserves and exports. With export policies and cost support, the downside is limited, and it's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. - For rubber, the start - up load of tire enterprises has decreased, and semi - steel tire export orders have slowed. However, typhoons may increase supply, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts may benefit the January contract. Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. - For PVC, corporate profits are at a low level, supply is high with new installations coming online, and demand is weak both domestically and in exports. There is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices are stable, while styrene prices are rising. Supply is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room to recover. Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to pause production growth may support oil prices. PE valuation has limited downside, but high warehouse receipts suppress the market. With inventory reduction and seasonal demand, prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. - For polypropylene, cost - side supply may increase, and supply pressure remains high. Although demand has rebounded seasonally, overall inventory pressure is high. Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. - For PX, the load is high, but downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, leading to expected inventory accumulation in November. However, there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand structure, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. - For PTA, supply - side maintenance has increased, but new installations will lead to inventory accumulation in November. Demand may remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic and overseas installations are operating at high loads, imports are increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Valuation is relatively low, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 7.70 yuan/barrel, a 1.66% decline, at 455.50 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.43 million barrels to 424.16 million barrels, a 0.80% decline; SPR increased by 0.53 million barrels to 410.93 million barrels, a 0.13% increase [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang price increased by 3, Lunan by 5, and Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 3 yuan to 2016 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16. The 1 - 5 spread was - 137 [2]. - **Strategy**: The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline. Be vigilant about price drops [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, while Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 2 yuan to 1665 yuan, with a basis of - 45. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 70 [5]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, with limited downside. It's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: As of November 20, 2025, the start - up load of full - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.57%, down 4.13 percentage points from last week and 2.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load of semi - steel tires was 72.77%, down 1.60 percentage points from last week and 6.01 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire export orders slowed. Typhoons may increase supply, and 110,000 tons of warehouse receipts will be cancelled on November 15 [10]. - **Strategy**: Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 36 yuan to 4456 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4420 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 36. The 1 - 5 spread was - 311. The overall start - up rate was 78.5%, down 2.2%. Factory inventory was 322,000 tons, down 12,000 tons, and social inventory was 1.028 million tons, down 13,000 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also stable, with a narrowing basis. The spot price of styrene increased, and the futures price also rose, with a strengthening basis. The upstream start - up rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 265,000 tons [14][15]. - **Strategy**: Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6835 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6855 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 20 yuan/ton, weakening by 2 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 83.77%, up 0.89%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 259,000 tons, and trader inventory increased by 50,000 tons [17]. - **Strategy**: Prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6400 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6520 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 120 yuan/ton, strengthening by 34 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 77.71%, down 0.68%. Overall inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 6830 yuan. PX CFR increased by 1 dollar to 833 dollars. The basis was - 22 yuan. The Chinese load was 86.8%, down 3%, and the Asian load was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some installations were shut down or under maintenance [22]. - **Strategy**: There may be inventory accumulation in November, but there is support, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 16 yuan to 4696 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 4630 yuan. The basis was - 69 yuan. The load was 72.1%, down 3.6%. Some installations were under maintenance, and downstream load increased [24]. - **Strategy**: Supply - side inventory may accumulate in November, and PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 81 yuan to 3822 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 34 yuan to 3885 yuan. The basis was 32 yuan. The load was 70.7%, down 0.9%. Port inventory increased by 71,000 tons [27]. - **Strategy**: Inventory is accumulating, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, believing that the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan/barrel, or 0.58%, to 486.20 yuan/barrel [1] - **Inventory Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.94 million barrels to 424.65 million barrels, a 0.94% increase; SPR increased by 0.51 million barrels to 405.22 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 1.46 million barrels to 220.00 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; diesel inventories increased by 4.72 million barrels to 120.64 million barrels, a 4.07% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.30 million barrels to 21.21 million barrels, a 6.51% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.47 million barrels to 43.27 million barrels, a 1.11% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 2407 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 112 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has further increased, coal prices have slightly declined, and corporate profits are generally good. Overseas production has returned to a year - on - year high, and there is still import pressure. The port MTO load has slightly increased, and profits have continued to improve, but traditional demand is still weak. It is expected that the decline space is limited, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spreads [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 1669 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9 [6] - **Analysis**: As the spot price weakens, corporate profits have further declined, and the production start - up rate has significantly decreased, reducing supply pressure. However, demand is weak, and port inventories are rising. It is expected that the price will move within a range, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated weakly, following the trend of industrial products such as coking coal. Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 15000 (0) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1845 (- 5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1855 (+ 5) dollars [9][12] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that rubber production in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, may be limited, the seasonality of rubber usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - expectations are uncertain, demand is in the off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected. It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view, but a neutral view in the short - term, either waiting and watching or making quick trades [10][12] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 10 yuan to 4857 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 207 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 (+ 6) yuan/ton [14] - **Analysis**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Domestic demand is at a five - year low, and export expectations have weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices, but also beware of short - term upward movements [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, while the futures price rose, and the basis weakened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward correction space [16] - **Analysis**: The cost - side pure benzene production is in a neutral and volatile state, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the production start - up rate of styrene has continued to rise. The port inventory has continued to decline significantly. In the long - term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the styrene price may rebound after the inventory decline inflection point [16][17] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7226 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7220 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 6 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton [19] - **Analysis**: There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is declining from a high level. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. In the long - term, the price may fluctuate upward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6948 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6955 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 7 yuan/ton, strengthening by 1 yuan/ton [20] - **Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, with high supply pressure. The downstream production start - up rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [20] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 44 yuan to 6770 yuan, the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 838 dollars, and the basis was 94 yuan (- 22) [22] - **Analysis**: The PX production load is at a high level, and although the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance in the short - term, the PX inventory accumulation is not large due to new PTA device production. The terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices during the peak season [22][23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 20 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4625 yuan, and the basis was - 63 yuan (0) [24] - **Analysis**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has turned into de - stocking, but the processing fee is suppressed. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure is low, and the downstream and terminal production start - up rates have improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [24] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan to 4319 yuan, the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4439 yuan, and the basis was 117 yuan (- 15) [25] - **Analysis**: Overseas and domestic maintenance devices have gradually started, and the production start - up rate has reached a high level. The domestic supply is high. In the short - term, the port inventory is expected to be low due to less arrival volume, but it will turn into inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The valuation is currently relatively high year - on - year, and there is downward pressure in the medium - term [25]